Dollar getting killed by the Euro
#41
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 5,579
Likes: 0
Flyboy is right. We should be emulating the economic policies of the strong currency countries of the Eurozone.
Look at Germany, unemployment hit a postwar high in March of 10% and their GDP grew by minus 0.2% in 2004.
Oh, that doesn't seem too good, let's try France: unemployment level there is only the highest level in 5 years - 10%.
Humm, not very good either. I give up.
Look at Germany, unemployment hit a postwar high in March of 10% and their GDP grew by minus 0.2% in 2004.
Oh, that doesn't seem too good, let's try France: unemployment level there is only the highest level in 5 years - 10%.
Humm, not very good either. I give up.
#42
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,154
Likes: 0
As opposed to the the low unemployment rates in weak currency countries? The dollar and employment were both strong through most of the 1990s. There was also a budget surplus by the end of the period. These things are not mutually exclusive.
#43
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,510
Likes: 0
This porridge is too hot --
this porridge is too cold --
this Canadian porridge is JUST RIGHT!
Viz.: No budgetary deficit, no trade deficit, stable currency creeping up inexorably against the USD, a national government that keeps racking up surpluses however many extra billions it spends on socialized medicine; an electorate that does NOT feel over-taxed, according to polls.....
Whatever you think of the present Cdn government -- and sure, nobody out there is doing The Wave -- as an allegedly misguided "socialist" country, we are doing okay
this porridge is too cold --
this Canadian porridge is JUST RIGHT!
Viz.: No budgetary deficit, no trade deficit, stable currency creeping up inexorably against the USD, a national government that keeps racking up surpluses however many extra billions it spends on socialized medicine; an electorate that does NOT feel over-taxed, according to polls.....
Whatever you think of the present Cdn government -- and sure, nobody out there is doing The Wave -- as an allegedly misguided "socialist" country, we are doing okay
#44
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 5,579
Likes: 0
tedgale, you might want to check this website for other view of the Canadian economy.
http://www.hrmguide.net/canada/jobma...weaknesses.htm
Some quotes from the article:
-----------------------------
Updated April 8 2005 - Statistics Canada reports that unemployment edged down by 0.1% to 6.9% with an increase of 34,000 part-time jobs being offset by a reduction in full-time jobs and a reduction in the number of people looking for work.
"It is always shameful when unemployment goes down because the unemployed have given up and left the job market,” says Ken Georgetti, president of the Canadian Labour Congress. “Despair is setting in the heart of a lot of jobless workers and I have not heard a word from the government to acknowledge this situation. This report shows all the wrong trends firming up, but there is no plan on Parliament Hill to shape a long-term job strategy and industrial policy for the country."
"The worrisome fact that jobs are of an increasingly bad quality despite the seeming stability on the unemployment front," said Pierre Laliberté, senior economist at the Canadian Labour Congress.
* Private sector employers as a whole are still not hiring -- dollar sensitive industries (manufacturing, accommodation notably) show weakness. As a result, the public sector has been holding the bottom with a net job creation of 55,600 since the beginning of the year, but failing to make up for a weakening private sector.
------------------------------
http://www.hrmguide.net/canada/jobma...weaknesses.htm
Some quotes from the article:
-----------------------------
Updated April 8 2005 - Statistics Canada reports that unemployment edged down by 0.1% to 6.9% with an increase of 34,000 part-time jobs being offset by a reduction in full-time jobs and a reduction in the number of people looking for work.
"It is always shameful when unemployment goes down because the unemployed have given up and left the job market,” says Ken Georgetti, president of the Canadian Labour Congress. “Despair is setting in the heart of a lot of jobless workers and I have not heard a word from the government to acknowledge this situation. This report shows all the wrong trends firming up, but there is no plan on Parliament Hill to shape a long-term job strategy and industrial policy for the country."
"The worrisome fact that jobs are of an increasingly bad quality despite the seeming stability on the unemployment front," said Pierre Laliberté, senior economist at the Canadian Labour Congress.
* Private sector employers as a whole are still not hiring -- dollar sensitive industries (manufacturing, accommodation notably) show weakness. As a result, the public sector has been holding the bottom with a net job creation of 55,600 since the beginning of the year, but failing to make up for a weakening private sector.
------------------------------
#45
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 12,188
Likes: 0
I feel like a naysayer, but I see major structural weaknesses in all western economies. Of course I've been expecting the bottom to fall out for years now, and it still hasn't, but I don't think any given country has much to crow about.
In any event, the oil is going to run out for us all sooner or later, and the party will be over.
In any event, the oil is going to run out for us all sooner or later, and the party will be over.
#46
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 74,699
Likes: 0
>...we have a HUGE trade deficit and that there is a tremendous amount of foreign investment in this country. <
I agree that the trade deficit is a problem, but do consider that every country has some years of deficit and some years of surplus - over the long haul it comes out even.
Foreign investment in the US is just as good as US investment in foreign countries.
You might wish to review this article, from 1991. The numbers are different, but the conclusions are still valid.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/F...tedStates.html
BTW, the greatest foreign investment in the US came during 1998, 1999 and 2000.
http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/fdinewsrelease.htm
>Did I misstate the "facts" as they are interpreted down in Madison and have you decided to give up your trip to France????<
No and No.
>In any event, the oil is going to run out for us all sooner or later, and the party will be over. <
In 1973 the "experts" told us that all of the world's oil would be gone in 35 years (2008). Today, the USGS estimates current proven reserves to be about 1.6 trillion barrels - 60 years worth at current production rates.
The US alone has proven coal reserves to last 300 years.
If you live long enough, you hear the same stuff at least twice.
I agree that the trade deficit is a problem, but do consider that every country has some years of deficit and some years of surplus - over the long haul it comes out even.
Foreign investment in the US is just as good as US investment in foreign countries.
You might wish to review this article, from 1991. The numbers are different, but the conclusions are still valid.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/F...tedStates.html
BTW, the greatest foreign investment in the US came during 1998, 1999 and 2000.
http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/fdinewsrelease.htm
>Did I misstate the "facts" as they are interpreted down in Madison and have you decided to give up your trip to France????<
No and No.
>In any event, the oil is going to run out for us all sooner or later, and the party will be over. <
In 1973 the "experts" told us that all of the world's oil would be gone in 35 years (2008). Today, the USGS estimates current proven reserves to be about 1.6 trillion barrels - 60 years worth at current production rates.
The US alone has proven coal reserves to last 300 years.
If you live long enough, you hear the same stuff at least twice.
#47
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 577
Likes: 0
sorry to confuse anyone, but the eurodollar is the name used in forex when specifically trading euro/dollar. it's not anything different than saying you trade euros for dollars. as the euro/dollar is not the only thing traded...euro/pound, euro/yen, euro/czk, euro/chf.
#48
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,426
Likes: 0
"caroline_edinburgh
Date: 04/18/2005, 10:16 am
K_M : nothing personal of course (against any of the mostly fine people on this board) - but not until there is regime change"
I read this thread last night and have been mildly stewing over it.
caroline_edinburgh, surely you do not refuse to travel to all places where you do not agree with the politics?
If you do not care to travel to the US, that's fine. There are quite a number of places in the world that I can easily pass up, but your comment came across (to me, anyway) as supercilious and judgmental.
I am not a very political person. There are many things about my country and other places in the world with which I disagree. I can and do voice my opinion through correspondence with elected officials and the ballot box.
It is sad that you would deprive yourself of what the US has to offer (and at a very favorable exchange rate) due to a disagreement with a politician of any nationality. Do you think you will be forced to wear a cowboy hat?
You may be affronted at this point, but I know I feel better.
Date: 04/18/2005, 10:16 am
K_M : nothing personal of course (against any of the mostly fine people on this board) - but not until there is regime change"
I read this thread last night and have been mildly stewing over it.
caroline_edinburgh, surely you do not refuse to travel to all places where you do not agree with the politics?
If you do not care to travel to the US, that's fine. There are quite a number of places in the world that I can easily pass up, but your comment came across (to me, anyway) as supercilious and judgmental.
I am not a very political person. There are many things about my country and other places in the world with which I disagree. I can and do voice my opinion through correspondence with elected officials and the ballot box.
It is sad that you would deprive yourself of what the US has to offer (and at a very favorable exchange rate) due to a disagreement with a politician of any nationality. Do you think you will be forced to wear a cowboy hat?
You may be affronted at this point, but I know I feel better.
#49
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,491
Likes: 0
1. If having a few tourists stay away could affect the current regime, I'd be delighted to have caroline-edinburgh stay at home.
2. But no, there will be no perceptible regime change in 2008, either. Too many conservative-strongman heirs-apparent standing in the wings, beginning with Frist, Jeb Bush, even Delay..... and pitiful Dems seem unable to do better than Hillary or Edwards-take-two. Either way, the lead-footed moneyed interests like the deficit and the weak dollar, for reasons that look no further than about 2-5 years ahead. I'm traveling this year with the fatalistic idea that $1.30 will seem cheap in 2 yrs.
2. But no, there will be no perceptible regime change in 2008, either. Too many conservative-strongman heirs-apparent standing in the wings, beginning with Frist, Jeb Bush, even Delay..... and pitiful Dems seem unable to do better than Hillary or Edwards-take-two. Either way, the lead-footed moneyed interests like the deficit and the weak dollar, for reasons that look no further than about 2-5 years ahead. I'm traveling this year with the fatalistic idea that $1.30 will seem cheap in 2 yrs.
#51
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 6,282
Likes: 0
Lois: don't stew ! It was meant to be at least semi-humorous.
At least I didn't cut up my passport & send it to Blair in protest against the war, as did some well-known people here : that would really have been cutting off my nose to spite my face
At least I didn't cut up my passport & send it to Blair in protest against the war, as did some well-known people here : that would really have been cutting off my nose to spite my face
#52
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,426
Likes: 0
Caroline, I've been tempted to cut up my passport because the photo is so bad.
If you're from Scotland as your name suggests, I hope to visit your beautiful country in the near future, even if the pound continues to pummel the US dollar.
If you're from Scotland as your name suggests, I hope to visit your beautiful country in the near future, even if the pound continues to pummel the US dollar.
#54
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
I´ve travelled to the US once this year and will do so twice more. I´ve used my euros to buy US-dollars because of the exchange rate at the moment. This has to be one of the best times to travel to the US. To be honest the euro is strong and dollar weak, because some other currecies (notably the Chinese Renmimbi wich is pegged to the US$ and Japanese Yen, which is being supported by the Japanese Central Bank) are not traded freely. So, the logical place for the pressure to be set free is €, £, Canadian and Oz-$s. That will change over the time.
#55
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 6,019
Likes: 0
The weak dollar is a fact of life and it will continue for a while.
I think that rather than bemoaning the fact that the once mighty dollar is / has declined, we should be looking at the causes.
It is not a random event.
I have voiced my opinion many times.
Now I think it time for those who tell me I am politically motivated to offer up a solution to the problem.
First why is the dollar weak?
Second, what will it take to start recovery?
Third, when do you think these economic events will take place?
Usually all I get is derision when I bring this up. For a change I would like to read someone else's analysis and let him or her tell me why the US dollar has slumped.
I think that rather than bemoaning the fact that the once mighty dollar is / has declined, we should be looking at the causes.
It is not a random event.
I have voiced my opinion many times.
Now I think it time for those who tell me I am politically motivated to offer up a solution to the problem.
First why is the dollar weak?
Second, what will it take to start recovery?
Third, when do you think these economic events will take place?
Usually all I get is derision when I bring this up. For a change I would like to read someone else's analysis and let him or her tell me why the US dollar has slumped.
#57
Original Poster
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 185
Likes: 0
I'm no economics guru, but from what I understand the trade and budget deficits make our dollar weaker. When our country is doing well with low unemployment and when businesses are growing and making money, foreign investors buy our stocks and treasuries, boosting the "value" of the dollar. The dollar does well when our interest rates are higher here than in the other countries; foreign investors buy them to make money on the interest and to hedge other investments. The way for the dollar to stage a comeback is through robust growth and deficit cutting measures from the Whitehouse.
#58
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,491
Likes: 0
I'm sidestepping the economics/politics whizbang, but I will say that Edwards thinks -- it seems to observers -- he can run again in 2008 and be more successful. Will be 4 years less experienced than he was in 2004, relatively speaking. Why don't they get a clue?
#59
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 47
Likes: 0
what am I missing?...the dollar is still doing well against the Euro(approx 1.3) when compared to the GBP and the dollar at 1.91! I booked 10 days in London and now I'm thinking of changing to Paris. Unless Paris is THAT much more expensive to visit,(and it doesn't appear so..see USA TODAY today..Travel Section.."Pennywise in Paris"
seems like a good idea. Someone set me straight or concur please?
seems like a good idea. Someone set me straight or concur please?
#60
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
dear azwurth, your reasoning is totally wrong. London is expensive, but it doesn´t have anything to do with the nominal value of their currency. If a country is expensive depending on how much "more" one unit of their currency is worth than one US-dollar, then UK is expensive and Turkey must be dirt cheap. You do know that you can get thousand of their Liras for just one US-Dollar? But it would be stupid to expect that a can of coke would cost the same in Liras as it costs in your currency.
Someone could think that you´re just trolling, but I´ve had to answer questions like: "if you go back to your country and take the 10000 dollars earned here with you and exchange them to local currency and get 60000 in return you must be rich back home?. This is a question I had to answer several times when working in the US for a while some time ago.
Someone could think that you´re just trolling, but I´ve had to answer questions like: "if you go back to your country and take the 10000 dollars earned here with you and exchange them to local currency and get 60000 in return you must be rich back home?. This is a question I had to answer several times when working in the US for a while some time ago.


Hope you can visit & enjoy Scotland some time.