Congratulations for reaching a decision, jeterray! And please forgive the digression....

Statististics can, of course, be misused – just like any other information (including “advice” posted on a travel forum). No one said that one could use an average historic average to predict the weather on any given day, although as Hawking correctly notes, the seasonal average would be the best single estimate. Good climate statistics include not just a measure of central tendancy (such as a mean), but also a measure of dispersion around that measure, so that one knows the range of likely (not guaranteed) conditions. I like timeanddate.com for that purpose; other sources are also available.

don't have to be a weatherman to say that Cadiz will have much nicer weather at that time than Donosotia. Weather averages from recent years are always a good indicator of what to expect.

Define nicer weather? Everyone says stay away from the south as it is too hot. Some like hot. The one week I picked, at random, in the link above suggested that the weather in the North of Spain was much sunnier than the south. Less wind too.
Really? Like to prove that bold statement?
https://public.wsu.edu/~taflinge/evistats.html

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/


Also read up on meteorological data interpolation. I am not talking about climate change either.

In Ronda I can recommend Hotel San Gabriel in the old town. It was a lovely restored old mansion with personable staff. Their recommendations for restaurants were great. We had one of our most memorable meals in Spain at Carmen de la Ronda a few minutes walk from the hotel.

Weather averages from recent years are always a good indicator of what to expect.
Really? Like to prove that bold statement?>

Yes when talking about weather to be expected in Cadiz and Donostia in general in say October. Not that there can't wide variances but still I'd bet on it being warmer at that time in Cadiz always and that is what weather averages can tell you - not predict the exact weather of course.

Smaller , beautiful spot...Salamanca
a lovely bigger city ..Valencia

Exactly they are a waste of time weather is variable and unpredictable.


An average of an data is the median, I would assume you know that. What these data charts never seem to give you Mr Joe Public is how they achieve to find the median.The information published is not really any good without the background to how the statics are calculated.

We prefer the shoulder seasons, and are ok even if it's a bit colder/warmer. We don't like cool and rain. That's what we fear we will get in SS in October, but would be happy for someone to convince us otherwise. We wanted to visit Ronda in January, but there was ice and snow.

elevations can make a different - doubt Cadiz ever gets much ice and now but Ronda may be at higher altitude. And if look at number of average rainy days in a month it will tell you whether a place is likely to cool and rainy.

https://www.holiday-weather.com/san_...rages/october/

shows that it rains on average 14 days a month - weather not that cool.

But Cadiz much drier usually - 6 rainy days

https://www.holiday-weather.com/cadiz/averages/october/

I don't care how 'variable' those averages are they are very telling in comparing these two - Cadiz much drier and warmer by a lot. Can't imagine not being in any October.

jeterray, I sincerely wish I had a viable recommendation for you for Ronda, but I don’t – and in the meantime, I hate seeing misinformation get posted without challenge, and so once again beg your forbearance.


For each month and each location (specified quite precisely), timeanddate.com identifies the range of years covered in the data it uses and presents the high, the low, and the mean (which is the arithmetic average, not the median – the median is value associated with the 50th percentile), along with other climate statistics. As the Hawking quote you already provided nicely states, in the absence of other information, the average (not the median) for a particular time of year is the best single predictor of weather for any time that is more than a few days ahead. And as already noted, the mean, in conjunction with information about variation (e.g., the high and low temperatures) gives a better estimate of the weather one is likely to encounter.

Some folks like to quibble with everything. However they figure it sites I give give a good idea of what to expect on the average or mean!

Thanks to everyone. I think we will fly into Madrid, and spend the night at the AC Marriott next to the train station. Then we will train to Cadiz, which will be our base for 2 weeks. During that time we will likely rent a car to drive to Ronda, where we will spend 2 or more nights before returning to Cadiz. We will also go to Seville for at least a day or two. Been to Cordoba and Grenada, so will not likely return. We will train back to Madrid where we will stay 3 nights. Will likely go to Toledo for a day tour. Any other recommendations ?

Many people visit Toledo as a day trip from Madrid, but FWIW, I felt limited with only 50 hours there. And there's no need to take a tour unless that's your preference -- it is very easy to visit on one's own.

Salamanca is a gem, easily worth 2 or 3 nights IMO. Segovia, Avila, and Cuenca are easy day trips from Madrid.

October is normally a very nice and mild weather month in San Sebastian. Not like summer, of course, but not too cold either.

Hello,
In my opinion two (2) weeks in one location as a base for day trips is ideal. This is exactly how my wife and myself plan our European holidays. Rent an apartment in one central location and then take numerous day trips. However we rent a vehicle which provides us with more options than public transportation. You mentioned Cadiz. I think that would be an ideal location to explore the Andalusian region of Spain.
Suggested day trips with public transportation would be Tarifa (and then to Tangiers, Morocco if so desired) Seville, Jerez, Vejer,
Zahara de los Atunes, El Puerto de Santa Maria, and Bolonia (great beach with awesome Roman Ruins site).

Can anyone recommend a well-located upscale hotel in Cadiz? (I am thinking of going myself this winter--week in Seville and week in Cadiz, more or less. Have already booked Sevilla hotel). Thank you!

I noted your dislike of your visit to Tangier. But have you considered visiting Fez and Marrakech instead? Or, if you are going back to Madrid after Cadiz, how about spending your second two weeks in Lisbon? Personally, I prefer Portugal to Spain (ducking), and there is a night train and direct flights

two weeks in Lisbon? Well, I'd prefer a smaller seaside city for relaxing - Lisbon like any large city not so much for that.

Well, Estoril or Cascais, then.

If not Spain (maybe OP and SO speak Spanish but yes those would be neat.