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Calling JAGIRL and TomCayman...Latest on Ernesto?

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Calling JAGIRL and TomCayman...Latest on Ernesto?

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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 03:55 AM
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Calling JAGIRL and TomCayman...Latest on Ernesto?

My daughter's visiting a friend there this weekend. What's Ernesto doing??
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 05:52 AM
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hi sally, in case tom and jagirl don't see this please follow this link. it has good up to the minute info : http://stormcarib.com/?rid=818585
or look at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/252030.shtml
let's hope ernesto stays a 1.
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 06:32 AM
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It's not even a 1 yet!
it's only a tropical storm. While tropical storms can do damge, especially flooding, they do not cause major destruction.
Hopefully the Caymans and Jamaica will not have too mnay problems.
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 08:19 AM
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Actually, tropical storms if not catastrophic can do plenty nuff damage to the waterfront from 'groundseas' which can come in from a storm offshore
when the sun is bright and shining and wreck havoc on jetties, decks, seaside lawns/gardens/trees from all the eel grasa and seastone. Every October every year it seems, one of these never-heard-of in US storms can cause thousands of dollars of damage and rebuilding.
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 10:03 AM
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If it stays at is, The Reef (our place in Cayman) should experience some rough seas, rain and high winds... will clear the beach and patios/balconies of furniture tomorrow and make sure we are ready for a power outage... we have a further plan in case it strengthens, but not likely to be the case.

Thx for the concerns, but keep the tinder dry in case we get a big one... September is when things get active !
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 10:32 AM
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yea, Tom, this is a test run.
I am sure there is more to come down the way..for some of us islanders at least.
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 11:37 AM
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hey sallyjane,
Your guess is as good as mine as to what ernesto is doing! We're watching the same weather reports that you are. He's supposed to hit us tomorrow morning as a Tropical storm.

Plenty rain is predicted.

Tiverton, you're right. Especially those farmers in St. Elizabeth. They usually suffer if even a tropical depression hits us. Sometimes the rain is worse than the breeze!

Stay safe TomCayman!
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 11:55 AM
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tiverton,
Are you in Maine or Jamaica right now?

If you're in Jamaica, stay safe kid!
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 01:15 PM
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stay sfae guys!

222
WTNT35 KNHC 262040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


798
WTNT25 KNHC 262043
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 01:36 PM
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Best of luck to both of you. This stuff isn't fun. I've got my fingers crossed for you.
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 01:37 PM
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Thanks for all the info, everyone. I'm praying for everyone's safety, but now I can tell God some names!
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 02:33 PM
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JAGIRL: Am up here on coast til October but ironically have guests departing/arriving today/tommorrow/tuesday and guests already in. Flat-calm seas so far,
rain in Belmont/Bluefields, South Coast. Clear in TB, if overcast . Carolyn's safely moored her boat in from choppy seas in MoBay. The usual run on groceries but everyone seems to be also in usual 'denial' stage, the day before.
Looks like it will go down spine of island as tropical storm. All our seaside properties battened down. Weather this past week has been good.
Reports in Sunday and Monday once
we're clear...
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Old Aug 26th, 2006, 11:36 PM
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Ernesto passing NORTH of Jamaica leaving behind bouts of heavy rains, surf and 55mph gusts. Flooding on North Coast should be the only worry. Intermittent rain on South Coast with clearing skies. Think we dodged the bullet.
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 04:26 AM
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It's a hurricane now:

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS
MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 07:05 AM
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tiverton,
yup, it's moving north of us. No rain yesterday here. Skies are clear...a little overcast in Mobay. AND HOT!! AND STILL!! Not a leaf is moving.

The hot, stillness when a hurricane is in the region is the most eerie thing ever. Hope your guests are going to be o.k.!
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 07:20 AM
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That is GREAT news for you, JAGIRL and Tivertonhouse. Glad to hear you two are okay.
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 01:44 PM
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Yes....after Ivan and Wilma....Jamaica needs a break from these devastating storms. Sending good vibes to everyone in Jamaica and the entire Caribbean this hurrican season.
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 04:57 PM
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It was sunny all day today, Sunday, on
the South Coast of Jamaica/little rain
fell. The North Coast is clearing/more but still not as much rain as expected.
We all breathe easier -- except our
guests still trying to get in thru
Miami (if you're flying nonstop to island from NYC or elsewhere Monday, you should be fine -- via Miami to
anywhere, it's still looking 50/50...)
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Old Aug 27th, 2006, 07:35 PM
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Sallyjane
In Mobay it was overcast,hot and humid today. No rain all day.
We got a little drizzle a couple of hours ago with some well appreciated "breeze".

But we haven't experienced any of this 'cane so far. I hope ernesto keeps losing strength.
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Old Aug 28th, 2006, 01:58 AM
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A sunny Sunday on island -- airports are open, flights coming in, guests en route from US and UK...
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