Rebooking China trip
May 27th, 2003 | 06:41 AM
#1
Original Poster
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 46
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Rebooking China trip
Would like to know how travelers who plan to go to China feel about Fall travel there now that Hong Kong has been dropped from warning status. Any info from those in contact with Beijing as to how they are really doing?
May 27th, 2003 | 03:01 PM
#2
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,778
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Hong Kong may have been dropped, but there is still vast misrepresentation of the difficulties in the mainland, and figures are still being manipulated, according to private sources, and a very few public ones (notably the Asia Times, which while it has an axe to grind against the Beijing government, was the first to report infections in Shanxi Province before they were publicly admitted, and claims to have found cases in provinces which are officially declared to have none. I have private information which, while I can't guarantee its accuracy, suggests these reports are correct.)
According to news received this morning, Beijing is back to the usual pushing and shoving on public transport, the SARS-induced decorum (fear of everyone else) having evaporated. There are still fresh cases daily there, however, and the full picture (spread in the military, method of communication, etc.) is still being denied to the WHO, which refuses to consider the figures it is being given as accurate. Although Guangdong Province is now declared out of danger, none of the neighbouring provinces, whose governors may know a lot more about it, seem to think so, and are reported to raised quarantine requirements in the last few days.
About one third of Beijing's sights are currently closed, but most are saying they will re-open on June 2.
When considering travel, also consider the following:
About 10% of the cases in Beijing when something perhaps approaching the real numbers were admitted, were migrant workers
In the period immediately following this, 1.3 million migrant workers were allowed to leave the city and go back to their villages
Health care and supervision is primitive or non-existent in much of the countryside
The government consistently bends any figures it makes public to that they fit the view of the world it wants to project
WHO is not able to corroborate the figures being given out
Countries with far better medical systems, able and willing to enforce draconian quarantine regulations or with a cooperative populace, are having great difficulty containing far smaller outbreaks (Toronto, Singapore, Taiwan).
So, really, no one (not even the Chinese government) actually knows the real situation, but you can be absolutely certain that it's worse than the government is suggesting. In Hong Kong, however, which still has relatively good public accountability, you can accept what you are being told.
Whether the (very small) level of risk influences your travel decision is another matter. Certainly, even if Beijing sights do open on June 2, travelling around much of the rest of the country may have its difficulties for some time, with frequent health checks, many hotels and sights closed, and some cities, counties, and whole provinces closed altogether. Greed for the tourist dollar will eventually cause all of these to re-open, but that will be long before SARS is actually done away with. And for probably quite some time, the belief that the disease was brought in by foreigners, a view tacitly supported by the government since it takes the heat off itself, will lead some Chinese to shy away, muttering about the disease, and covering their mouths with their hands, as friends around China report is now sometimes happening.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
According to news received this morning, Beijing is back to the usual pushing and shoving on public transport, the SARS-induced decorum (fear of everyone else) having evaporated. There are still fresh cases daily there, however, and the full picture (spread in the military, method of communication, etc.) is still being denied to the WHO, which refuses to consider the figures it is being given as accurate. Although Guangdong Province is now declared out of danger, none of the neighbouring provinces, whose governors may know a lot more about it, seem to think so, and are reported to raised quarantine requirements in the last few days.
About one third of Beijing's sights are currently closed, but most are saying they will re-open on June 2.
When considering travel, also consider the following:
About 10% of the cases in Beijing when something perhaps approaching the real numbers were admitted, were migrant workers
In the period immediately following this, 1.3 million migrant workers were allowed to leave the city and go back to their villages
Health care and supervision is primitive or non-existent in much of the countryside
The government consistently bends any figures it makes public to that they fit the view of the world it wants to project
WHO is not able to corroborate the figures being given out
Countries with far better medical systems, able and willing to enforce draconian quarantine regulations or with a cooperative populace, are having great difficulty containing far smaller outbreaks (Toronto, Singapore, Taiwan).
So, really, no one (not even the Chinese government) actually knows the real situation, but you can be absolutely certain that it's worse than the government is suggesting. In Hong Kong, however, which still has relatively good public accountability, you can accept what you are being told.
Whether the (very small) level of risk influences your travel decision is another matter. Certainly, even if Beijing sights do open on June 2, travelling around much of the rest of the country may have its difficulties for some time, with frequent health checks, many hotels and sights closed, and some cities, counties, and whole provinces closed altogether. Greed for the tourist dollar will eventually cause all of these to re-open, but that will be long before SARS is actually done away with. And for probably quite some time, the belief that the disease was brought in by foreigners, a view tacitly supported by the government since it takes the heat off itself, will lead some Chinese to shy away, muttering about the disease, and covering their mouths with their hands, as friends around China report is now sometimes happening.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
May 27th, 2003 | 05:35 PM
#3
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 83
Likes: 0
I am rebooked for October 6th and I hope that I will be able to go (SARS under control and the North Korea situation no worse). Has anyone heard any more about the visa extensions from the government? My travel agent is still working on it. Please advise.
May 30th, 2003 | 02:07 PM
#6
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,778
Likes: 0
According to Chinese media everything's coming up roses. Numbers of infections are down and down, sights are reopening in Beijing next month, and travel restrictions to Tibet, Yunnan, are being dropped (although nothing is said about Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Tianjin).
WHO is still being cagey about China's figures (as it should be), and I fear that this is all going to end in further flare-ups, and further clamp-downs, both widely misreported. I hope I'm wrong, but on the face of it that doesn't seem likely.
Nevertheless, for those who want to travel to China it looks as though restrictions may ease, although temperature-taking may continue, and some cities may continue to quarantine or force regular reporting by anyone arriving from an officially infected part of China.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
WHO is still being cagey about China's figures (as it should be), and I fear that this is all going to end in further flare-ups, and further clamp-downs, both widely misreported. I hope I'm wrong, but on the face of it that doesn't seem likely.
Nevertheless, for those who want to travel to China it looks as though restrictions may ease, although temperature-taking may continue, and some cities may continue to quarantine or force regular reporting by anyone arriving from an officially infected part of China.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
Jun 5th, 2003 | 06:37 PM
#7
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
I STRONGLY disagree with PeterN_H about the situation in Beijing. I am a foreigner residing in Beijing now and the situation is not like that at all. Yes, the official figures dropped, yes, back to traffic jam and everything, but the government has reported honest and truthful figures now. And if you have any doubt about this, go check out the WHO website: www.who.int and you will see that their comments towards the Chinese SARS figures are not dubious. Moreover, Beijing's major tourist spots are all open-air, and with a lower density than Hong Kong, you'll be ok. October is also the best time to be in Beijing, nice fall weather, and you can actually see a blue sky. Do avoid the first week of October though, that's the 'golden week' where everyone in China is on holiday...
Don't worry too much.
Don't worry too much.
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Jun 6th, 2003 | 09:34 AM
#8
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,778
Likes: 0
The only point made in earlier postings which actually seems to be addressed in the message above is whether the Chinese government is telling the truth, which hardly seems worth the debate here. It lies about everything else routinely, it produces no reliable statistics on any other topic, it continues to lie that without the Communist Party things would have been worse (in billboards, hastily written and continuously broadcast popular songs, etc.) and if it hadn't lied continuously about the outbreak in the first place several hundred deaths around the world would have been avoided.
WHO does indeed now say that the epidemic in China is winding down, but it still casts doubts on Chinese figures (in diplomatic language, such as this, reported in the New York Times today):
"While generally praising China's efforts, the World Health Organization team nonetheless acknowledged that China had been slow to cooperate and that, in part as a result, there were still major unanswered questions about the outbreak in Beijing. The Chinese only recently released their full case investigations to the health agency's advisers.
While in most countries SARS has generally been an infection acquired from a family member or in a hospital, more random transmission was probably occurring in China, particularly in Beijing, the doctors said.
But because of poor record keeping and investigative work, it was still not clear exactly where and how infections were acquired, whether they were clustered in certain districts or may have been acquired on buses or in subways, for example.
In Beijing, more than 50 percent of people who have come down with SARS have had no known prior contact with a SARS patient !? a far higher percentage than in any other country, the international experts said."
WHO officials are then indeed "dubious" about China's figures, and have specifically cited the secrecy in Beijing in the last two weeks, particularly about the military camps.
I've made no argument for or against going to China based on the chances of catching SARS, which have always been minute. But the measures taken to reduce transmission (nothing like as organized, consistent, or common sense as suggested, and in some ways managed with so little regard for hygiene basics as to seem to be likely to contribute to the spread) might make travel less enjoyable, or in some areas impossible. Right now, reportedly every little village is doing temperature checks at the entrance, which would make visiting some of Beijing's more rural sights a little less inviting if you choose to allow this to irritate you. Some hotels are reportedly taking the temperature of everyone who goes in (but at least they clean the thermometer between uses, which is often more than the villagers do).
To say "Beijing's major tourist spots are all open air" is simply not correct. Almost all involve going indoors. But tourism is so low at the moment (supposing that density of crowds makes a difference in transmission) that on Monday a colleague reported being the only visitor at two of the Ming Tombs. However, many sights have yet to re-open, although by the Fall the "workers" there will have been persuaded that they'll have to return to sitting around and reading the paper at work, rather than doing the same at home, if only for the sake of Beijing's public image.
WHO suggests that although China has gone two days without *reporting* a new case of SARS, the disease could flare up again at any time, especially since there's so little clear information on what happened in China, and failure to reveal transmission routes in many cases in Beijing has made it impossible to tell just what happened.
That a well organized country with transparent media like Canada can have difficulties (in Toronto) does seem to indicate that a country which in fact doesn't know its true figures (and wouldn't tell you if it did), and which has a far less well-organized healthcare system, is very likely to have further flare-ups (as WHO suggests). But you probably won't hear about them.
Whether or not this is a reason not to go to China, is quite another matter. The purpose here and above, is merely to set out a few facts those considering a visit to China might want to take into account. Personally, if I had a particular reason to go to Beijing tomorrow, I'd go. But I've seen all the sights, am not particularly bothered where I eat (much in the way of restaurants, night life, health clubs, etc,. are still reported by friends to be closed; others open but deserted), and have lived and worked there. If I were making a once-in-a-lifetime trip on the other hand, and were able to delay a little longer, I'd probably do that, although the current complete lack of visitors to many sights is appealing, and the October after the week-long holiday is indeed the most pleasant time to visit.
Make your own decision, but on the basis of fact rather than boosterism.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
WHO does indeed now say that the epidemic in China is winding down, but it still casts doubts on Chinese figures (in diplomatic language, such as this, reported in the New York Times today):
"While generally praising China's efforts, the World Health Organization team nonetheless acknowledged that China had been slow to cooperate and that, in part as a result, there were still major unanswered questions about the outbreak in Beijing. The Chinese only recently released their full case investigations to the health agency's advisers.
While in most countries SARS has generally been an infection acquired from a family member or in a hospital, more random transmission was probably occurring in China, particularly in Beijing, the doctors said.
But because of poor record keeping and investigative work, it was still not clear exactly where and how infections were acquired, whether they were clustered in certain districts or may have been acquired on buses or in subways, for example.
In Beijing, more than 50 percent of people who have come down with SARS have had no known prior contact with a SARS patient !? a far higher percentage than in any other country, the international experts said."
WHO officials are then indeed "dubious" about China's figures, and have specifically cited the secrecy in Beijing in the last two weeks, particularly about the military camps.
I've made no argument for or against going to China based on the chances of catching SARS, which have always been minute. But the measures taken to reduce transmission (nothing like as organized, consistent, or common sense as suggested, and in some ways managed with so little regard for hygiene basics as to seem to be likely to contribute to the spread) might make travel less enjoyable, or in some areas impossible. Right now, reportedly every little village is doing temperature checks at the entrance, which would make visiting some of Beijing's more rural sights a little less inviting if you choose to allow this to irritate you. Some hotels are reportedly taking the temperature of everyone who goes in (but at least they clean the thermometer between uses, which is often more than the villagers do).
To say "Beijing's major tourist spots are all open air" is simply not correct. Almost all involve going indoors. But tourism is so low at the moment (supposing that density of crowds makes a difference in transmission) that on Monday a colleague reported being the only visitor at two of the Ming Tombs. However, many sights have yet to re-open, although by the Fall the "workers" there will have been persuaded that they'll have to return to sitting around and reading the paper at work, rather than doing the same at home, if only for the sake of Beijing's public image.
WHO suggests that although China has gone two days without *reporting* a new case of SARS, the disease could flare up again at any time, especially since there's so little clear information on what happened in China, and failure to reveal transmission routes in many cases in Beijing has made it impossible to tell just what happened.
That a well organized country with transparent media like Canada can have difficulties (in Toronto) does seem to indicate that a country which in fact doesn't know its true figures (and wouldn't tell you if it did), and which has a far less well-organized healthcare system, is very likely to have further flare-ups (as WHO suggests). But you probably won't hear about them.
Whether or not this is a reason not to go to China, is quite another matter. The purpose here and above, is merely to set out a few facts those considering a visit to China might want to take into account. Personally, if I had a particular reason to go to Beijing tomorrow, I'd go. But I've seen all the sights, am not particularly bothered where I eat (much in the way of restaurants, night life, health clubs, etc,. are still reported by friends to be closed; others open but deserted), and have lived and worked there. If I were making a once-in-a-lifetime trip on the other hand, and were able to delay a little longer, I'd probably do that, although the current complete lack of visitors to many sights is appealing, and the October after the week-long holiday is indeed the most pleasant time to visit.
Make your own decision, but on the basis of fact rather than boosterism.
Peter N-H
http://members.axion.net/~pnh/China.html
