economy and safaris
 

Hey guys,

Just wondering if anyone is seeing the safari industry down as a result of the slumping world economy? IE are lodges less full or last minute deals to be had bc occupancy is low.

thanks

Go to www.ndutu.com and look at the availability in Feb and March ... these rooms are always reserved a year in advance (as early as June there were zero rooms available at Ndutu for this time frame) but right now there are plenty of openings ...

Ndutu is the best place in Africa to see the migration in Jan - March, so it means travel to Tanzania is really off right now, with quite a few late cancellations.

a lot of "specials" are out plus lodges/camps all over africa keep their 2008 rates.

especially americans are more hesistant to book. at least that is what i have heart from several outfitters.

i would bet especially hihg-end lodges and camps are willing to negotiate especially pre- and post peak season.

div

I was in Kenya for 2 weeks in early December. This is "normally" the low season. However, this year the camps are really suffering also due to their own troubles starting a year ago. I was the only one at Joy's Camp and at the Mara Explorer one night; another couple joined me the other night.

At Saruni Samburu, I was the only guest among friends of the owners. At Loldia house, there were 2 other couples travelling together. Little Governors was the busiest at about a third full, but Il Moran and the Main camp were way down. Royal Mara had 2 other couples come and go while I was there.

For Christmas it was picking up some, but mostly at reduced rates for locals. To me, this is great. The local people have not been able to visit their own parks and reserves in the past due to high prices and no availability. I applaud the camp owners for encouraging the locals to come and see the animals that they must preserve for the world. Local people that I talked to in Nairobi seem to prefer the sun and fun on the coast for a relaxing vacation though. They are filling those hotels again.

Everywhere I went, the camp managers wanted to know precisely this question: When will the tourists be back? The bookings don't look good for 2009 in Kenya. They're hoping for "Obama tourists", who will come to see where his family lives and add on a safari.

I'm sure many camp owners who borrowed the funds are in deep trouble. So many new camps went up in Kenya, especially inside and around the Mara North area, soon to be another conservancy. Lot's of rumors are flying around about who is not going to be there soon because of this and that.

Maybe Eben can enlighten us in this respect: what camps are being sold and to whom? I can't get into "facts" I've heard second and third hand that may not be true.

In Kenya, on the up-side: It's been a great year for the cats! Shakira still has her 3 cubs and they were full. I saw another cheetah (not named by the BBC) with 3 five weeks old cubs and no other cars around. I've seen Honey's boys kill twice: their first ever zebra and now a full grown wildebeest and there were less than 10 cars around each time including a film crew and BBC spotters. BBC has hired spotters from Governors and a local film crew person to stay with the boys and with Shakira at all times from sunrise to sundown. At least they get the night in peace. Therefore, you can just about always find them and it's amazing that not more than a few cars hang around at any time. That's how empty the Mara is right now. One day, nobody found Shakira at all. Needless to say, every vehicle from all camps were looking for her in the afternoon.

Last summer (Sept 9), I saw 2 “foreign” male lions takeover a small pride of 3 females of the Rhino Ridge pride from a single male. The Rhino Ridge pride is so large that some lions have split and formed smaller prides. I was happy to see they are all doing well and one of the females was pregnant. I saw one female with 2 five months old cubs from the Ol Kiombo pride. One of the females from the Paradise pride is roaming around with her 2 year old son. The Marsh pride's 4 females have seven cubs; Notch is doing well with his sons across the river. After the balloon ride, in the Mara West area, I saw the Migori pride females devour some baby warthogs. So all is well with the lions.

This is more than you asked for, but I think it's related. The cats are important to the economy after all.

and let's not forget the increase of reserve fees: mara 60US$pppd. if you stay in a concervancy it's 40US$pppd plus a visit to the reserve makes 100pppd!

of course for the animals it's fantastic as they don't get bothered too much anymore!

div

thank you mama for the update! very much appreciated!

Mombo raised it's rates $140pp/pn for 2009 to $1770pp/pn.

okay - there are always mavericks.

if people are willing to pay these absurd rates - providers must be nuts to not ask for it ;-)

on the other hand EVEN mala mala keeps its rates "down" to 2008.

div

Dennis, was that an error on one of the rates (ie from 140 pppn to 1770 pppn)? No wonder I haven't looked into Mombo yet!

Lynda, the price went <b>UP</b> $140.00 for 2009. Was $1630pp/pn in 2008, went up to $1770.pp/pn for 2009.

I was hoping for a half-price sale, but guess that's not the case!

Heck fire, if I don't mind paying $1770, what's another $140??? Feed the polo ponies and warm up my Lear Jet Captain. I feel like a trip to somewhere, maybe Africa, maybe Mombo :-)

regards - tom
ps - Lynn- pack up your mosquito netting and thigh high waders, we'll stop by and get you on the way :-)

Tom, I booked the month of September at Mombo, see ya there?
Happy New Year!

Dang it Dennis, SO you're the one booking ALL of Mombo for the month of Sep!!! If any of your friends drop out, count me there!!!! Happy New Year!!!!

regards - tom

Tom-I tried to book August but AIG booked it for their executive motivational training seminars.

I don't think the camp owners and managers are even now fully aware of the golbal nature and the extent of this financial crisis. They are somewhat insulated by the normal one year in advance bookings and that many people feel they might as well have one last fling. After all many have paid deposits and not all are refundable. I think the real pinch will come when they see how few advance bookings they get for next September and how even the more affluent safari goers make alternate plans. The entire safari industry has become to comfortable with over the top rates. Likewise, visa fees and as well as the fees paid to operate a concession have increased markedly over the past few years. IMHO the tour agents, concession operators, and even the host countries are going to need to deal with this new economy or suffer as a result. I cannot quite understand why they are so out of touch with the real world, perhaps it is the nature of the business-it must be nice.
Happy New Year-Ted

Ted - I was wondering the same you said about one year advance bookings. And I also believe what Bill H said about Tanzania/Ndutu. Myself, I canceled a Feb 2009 booking at Ndutu, the stock market crash took funds I had planned on using. Hope they come back :-) (and in my lifetime!!!)

regards - tom

Tom, I would guess that most are in the same boat. If the downturn in activity on this forum is any indication there are few new safaris in the planning stages than just 6 months ago. I know many people who have cancelled trips due to economic events. Many did not have to but still felt it was imprudent to take an expensive holiday during these times. Totally understandable but the years do keep ticking away. In my humble opinion, the safari industry had grown too agressive in their high pricing. Friends who had travelled to Tanzania and Kenya just a few years ago were appaled after recent safaris to these same countries. Evidently Botswana alone has been able to maintain the high quality safari experience but has done so by raising fees to an almost obscene level. Perhaps some good will come out of this turmoil. I have no sympathy for companies such as Wilderness, only for the poor staff that work in the camps. There is simply no good explanation for the fact that the US dollar has risen 30-40% against most foreign currencies (Pound, Euro, Rand &amp; Pula) yet the camps think they are doing us a favor by holding US demoniated rates the same as 2008. They pay their help, their supplies, and their concession fees in their native currency so by simply maintaining 2008 rates they gain 30-40% off of the top. A lot of Americans are looking closer to home (National Parks) and these are exactly the same people who had previously indicated a desire to safari in Africa. I would look for the real bargains and deals in Africa, to become available this summer and for the green season in Botswana to be a true steal next year. Just as on the plains of the Serengeti, the safari business is all about adaptation and survival of the fittest.
End of Rant-Happy New Year All
Ted

I went to the Masai Mara in Kenya in June 2008 for a short 5 day visit. I was just as &quot;Wowed&quot; as any of my trips to Botswana.

The prices went up, simply because there was a market to support it. Nothing wrong with it, if you have a business model to work with. Then comes the creation of demand through good marketing.

Right now, not just cancellations of bookings and provisional bookings - but, anyone watch the BBC show, &quot;Fast Track&quot; about a week or two ago? It basically is a travel show with regards to both business and leisure travel. In summary what they said was, that even the luxury holiday market is hugely impacted - not just the global recession with people delaying holidays, but, also people waiting for more last minute time frames to make plans due to ease of availability and better prices. This was apparently for lux holidays across the globe. Even apparently, the yacht rentals world wide have slowed down.

Hari - believe me, the yacht rental and purchases are first to go :) thankfully that's not one of those &quot;I must have items&quot;

Early December is always a slow period, so not unusual that many lodges/camps have few visitors. It's also the &quot;short&quot; rainy season with some camps closed.

As to the balance of the 2009 season... there will be an impact, with visitors looking for deals or booking closer to departure dates.

And, yes, I too feel the properties should hold prices at '08 levels; would also be nice to hold off on the park fee increases.

We'll just have to see what happens as we move into 2009.

Netting--check
Waders--check
Give the polo pony a pat for me.
;)

The Ndutu availability quantifies the problem.

I was talking to an agent who deals with general nature travel and I was told that while US clients are not going, there has not been that much change from Europeans in Africa. Apparently the Europeans are not headed to Ndutu, though.

I was at Ndutu last February/March and it was packed but no more than 1/3 of the guests were American. Same the year before. So the lack of visitors this year does certainly reflect a downturn of European/British/Australian tourists as well. In my experience travel agents are never very truthful about the dowturn in travel and don't know much about travel trends outside of their own region. Also, as has been pointed out above in this thread, by holding rates at 2008 levels, most ldoges will enjoy a 30-40% increase from tourists who pay in U.S. dollars.
Chuck

From the amount of activity on Trip Advisor and the posts it looks like the Europeans are going to Cape Town and other destinations in South Africa many of which are not safari related.
cj

After a more careful reading,

Ha ha Matnikstym on AIG
Tom, I'm sorry you had to cancel
Hari, good point on the wow factor
Temba, you make some good points about the current situation.

The dot com bubble burst, the housing bubble burst, now maybe the safari bubble.

So looks like a great last minute opp for Ndutu. I've never been, do u have to bring your own guide? Website has prices, what do those include? thanks

Most people bring their own guide but cars and guides are available for hire at the lodge.
Chuck

with the current downturn, I am secretly hoping that on game drives in the Serengeti I see fewer people. I hope that the SNP autorities realize that guests are happier when they see fewer vehicles, and open back up some of the paths that they closed 5 to 10 years ago. In other words, we need to be more spread out.

I will report back on what I see when I am in Tanzania in a few weeks. I will be there for 3 weeks, with most of my time being spent at private camp sites in the Serengeti.

bigcountry -

At Ndutu Ldg you can use their guides/vehicles, but might be sharing with other guests.

You have to consider how you get to Ndutu if not your own guide/vehicle. You can fly in/out of the Ndutu airstrip at a cost. With your own guide/vehicle, you can on the way visit Lake Manyara and the Ngorongoro Crater on the return to Arusha... this is how most visitors do it.

Good Andy, it will be most interesting to hear what you find there since you have years of background for comparison.

You also Bill H. Are you and the Mrs. going to Ndutu and surrounds again this year? If so, will be interesting to hear your comparison of this year with previous.

And there's someone else also going in Feb, Dana M, I think? Anyone else?

regards - tom

My husband and I will be in Ndutu in February. We've been waitlisted for the Lodge since last March and now we have 2 nights cleared (19 and 20) and are waiting and hoping that our 1st night clears too, Feb.18th. We're starting with 1 night in Arusha, 2 nights at Boundary Lodge in Tarangire, 2 nights at Sopa crater, 3 nights in Ndutu, 2 nights in Serengeti and then off to Pongwe for 7 nights. We booked a private tour for 2 with a stretch cruiser with Naipenda Safari. Last year we did nearly the same trip but did Arusha Park (had to contend with Bush's visit) and Lake Manyara instead of Tarrangire. We also added a day in Ndutu and added more time in Zanzibar. I've already started my preliminary packing yesterday now that the holiday rush is over. I can't wait!

Now 2010 is another topic. Because of the economy, Botswana is on hold until the prices come down or I get desperate and need my safari fix.

<b>You also Bill H. Are you and the Mrs. going to Ndutu and surrounds again this year?</b>

Tom, we have no plans to return to that area again. In just three years you could really see it deteriorate, with much larger crowds in 2008 compared to 2006 and 2007.

I think it's partly because the number of seasonal tented camps has almost doubled in that area. They are just adding them almost at random. I have a map from a few years ago that shows four Ndutu area campsites, often booked by small parties. Eben just showed a map with probably 15-20 campsites and most are jamming in 6 to 8 or even more tents per campsite, instead of 2 or 3 tents like earlier years. All about maximizing the $$.

Also they shut down off-roading in most of the adjacent Serengeti NP areas so now the people that would be in Serengeti viewing game on the plains are almost forced into the NCA to get quality game viewing, putting more pressure on the NCA area. I think they'll have to limit off-roading in the NCA soon if it keeps getting worse, which will pretty much kill it for serious photography.

The actions of guides from companies like Kibo, Warner Safaris and Leopard Safaris around the cheetahs last year also left a bad taste. A couple of times the Warner and Leopard guides kept the cheetah mom with 6 cubs from hunting by continually driving between her and the prey and it was pretty sickening. I have photos of the worst offending jeeps but I was told one of the Leopard Safari owners was a big-shot politician and if we complained about them he could make it difficult for us to enter (or leave) Tanzania.

Finally we didn't appreciate the asshole NCA Rangers trying to extort $1,400 from us last year for bogus 'photography permits'.

I'm glad we went when we did but I have no desire to return. The migration is really wonderful to see and we've had great wildlife sightings around Ndutu, but it's time for us to move on.

Bill

Bill, Like you we were disgusted with the behavior of the guides at Ndutu last year (February-March 2008). We had been there before and never seen anything like what we encountered in 2008. Three companies consistanly violated every ethic of decent behavior and threatened the cheetah moms in the most thoughtless way you could imagine. The three offending companies I witnessed and photographed were A&amp;K and vehicles from Swala and Kusini (both Sanctuary Camps). Although I have stayed at both of these cmaps in the past, I would never use Sanctuary again after witnessing there behavior. I should add that when I have stayed at these camps I did so with my own guide so I have no opportunity to interact with their camp guides. When I gestered to the A&amp;K guide and the Swala guide that they were messing up the cheetah's opportunity, they just smiled stupidly and looked away. I photographed the vehicles but I don't think anyone in Tanzania really cares. Evidently A&amp;K is in bed with the govenment and has ties to Sanctuary as well. We did use Kibo and it was a guide we had used previously and he was entirely professional. While I would not ever use Kibo again or that that particular guide again, it is not becuase of his behavior in the Serengeti. Kibo Guides has become too much of a mass tour company and has become so comfortable with thier OAT arrangement that they no longer take the care they used to in training and managing their guides. I could go on but will spare you. One thing to keep in mind is that last year (2008) was somewhat unusual as the Kenya crowd was alloed to safari in the Tanzanian Serengeti and that they were allowed to use their own vehicles. This placed enormous pressure on the entire area. Certainly Tanzania saw this as an opportunity to increase income. What is hard to forgive is that the most sever indiscretions were by the Tanzanian Tour Companies (A&amp;K in particular). I would also suggest that the prople who ue A&amp;K are most likely first time visitors and no the sort who usualy return. I watched while a driver/guide was bribed to remain at a sighting after dark ($100 US). Our guide was somewaht upset but afraid to report the incident. For the time being, and unless Tanzania can get its act together, we are doing Botswana, South Africa, and perhaps Rwanda regularly. I just feel terrible that the Serengeti ecosystem is being destroyed. I thought they new better.
Chuck

My apologies for typos in the above but it is time for dinner and so have no time to edit.
Cheers-Chuck

&quot;I have photos of the worst offending jeeps but I was told one of the Leopard Safari owners was a big-shot politician and if we complained about them he could make it difficult for us to enter (or leave) Tanzania.&quot;

as a wildlife enthusiast and an animal rights activist i cannot belief what i am reading here.

i would rather risk being on a red list than not addressing it to the right/wrong people. even or despite it's a big name!
i would have published it in safari/africa magazins as african safari or africa geographic and even national geographic.

for the animal's sake we have to act and looking away for selfish reasons is something which is done by TOO many people today!

animals have onla one lobby - and that is US!

div!

div

With the above complaints, and the fees to enter the parks in the Northern Circuit, I can't imagine why anyone would go on safari there. Having been several times, it just doesn't have the feel for Real Africa as it once had when I was first there in '87. I have given up on returning there.

I have always had the suspicion that many people on the forum were over selling parts of East Africa.

I think the trick in any place that gets over loved is to move to areas where there are fewer people. The Serengeti is a HUGE ecosystem, and there are many many great areas with few travelers. It is the low hanging fruit of the central part and southern part of the Serengeti where you will find the safari companies doing the same old thing. Not that it is a bad place to do business, but they aren't exactly taking many risks for their customers. When I say risks I mean going to places with a little less concentration of game and where good guiding is needed to differentiate yourself. No need for me to mention the companies that I am thinking of.

I love working around the edges, finding things that are private experiences. I absolutely love Tanzania, and I don't want to feel like it's sour grapes for me, when it isn't. I just think it is human nature for one to remember times past when we felt like we had a place all to ourselves.

Yikes! Maybe I was &quot;lucky&quot; I canceled planned safari for Feb around Ndutu! Doing that hasn't really bothered me, everything else is good and our safari in South Africa (for Sep) is still a go.

regards - tom

When I go to the Zoo, I know I will be sharing the experience with hundreds of people. When I travel to Africa, I really don't expect to share the experience with a lot of tourists, let alone have quite a few in my photos, and not by choice.

If going to where there is less people in the serengeti means I must go where there is less wildlife, it defeats the purpose of going to this unique ecosystem. Why not just go to someplace it is not an issue?

And yes, I have returned many times, and each experience was 'less' then the prior one. All due to the crunch of tourists. I have given it a fair chance and went on safari to far better places, with more experienced and qualifed guiding as a plus, nowhere near the number of tourists, in what could be called remote Africa.

The kicker was being able to bush walk with the wildlife was offered at most of these places, which is not the norm in the Northern circuit.

lunagwablondes-Would you be willing to share the remote destinations with the rest of us on Fodors? Is it Tanzania or are you referring to Zambia, or do you just avoid the northern circuit? It is just this sort of information that makes Fodors so useful.
Ted

Random thoughts:

I agree that prices have risen astronomically in the last few years. But, at the end of the day, it's all about supply and demand. If the market can bear it, then it's hardly a surprise that camp owners will charge what they can. They are, after all, businesses.

Now that demand is falling and falling hard, I would imagine that most camps will need to drop their prices by quite a large percentage.

Those that survive will no doubt be those that, when prices were at their highest, were operating at huge margins, but whose costs will still be covered within a lower pricing model.

Those that jumped onto the bandwagon and created cost/ pricing models based on the highest prices will no doubt struggle.

I too have heard various rumours (from friends who live in Kenya) about certain camp owners actually wanting to sell their camps but being unable to find purchasers. I won't repeat camp/ owner names since this is simply hearsay.

It will be interesting to see what is left once the dust settles.

Kavey,

Is that because the Kenyan tourism took a hit after the election issues? or something to do with the current economic downturn? i.e., the camp operators in Kenya wanting to close shop?

Hari, I don't know. Certainly the main one that I'd heard of that my friend mentioned, he said the owner had been wanting to sell for several months. Of course, that means it could either be since the January trouble or it could be previous to/ unrelated to that.