Is this thing going to hit New Orleans??? NOT good.

Jocelyn P., a link for you:

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpa...1436190020.xml

My thoughts are with you all down there; when Hurricane Fran came through Raleigh, it was a turn at the last minute that got us. I certainly hope that your worries are for nothing....

Thanks for the link, Bonnie. I'm watching all of this unfold from safe (until tornado season) Tulsa, wishing all of you on the Gulf Coast the best.

Jocelyin, I wondered the same thing in my post here five days ago...it seemed odd even then to project that if Ivan rolled into the Gulf of Mexico it would still head for central Florida and not farther north and west.
We saw a documentary a while back showing how poorly equipped NOLA is to handle a major hurricane, especially if it carries significant rainfall. Hope those worries aren't put to the test!

Jocelyn, glad that you are in Tulsa! From your question, I thought maybe you lived there. BTilke, I think I saw that same documentary on New Orleans and hurricanes that you did, and that's why I was checking reports from The Times-Picayune there. What a nervewracking time for everybody in that Gulf Coast area!

The French Quarter is about 15 feet below sea level. Those infamous pumps and the canals can handle about 1/2" of rainfall per hour. Someone once likened New Orleans to a bunch of houses sitting in the bottom of a pie plate with about as much protection around the edges. I know because I used to live in that wonderful city.

If, and it is a BIG if, a hurricane were ever to make landfall and cross directly over the city it really would be disastrous.

When we lived in New Orleans we prepared for two...but both turned at the last minute, thank heavens, because as Topman said, the entire city sits below sea level. That is the one place we ever had to have flood insurance, although we lived well back from the river.

It was said then and I'm sure the same is true today, that the worst case scenario would be for a hurricane to come in over Lake Pontchartrain, that it would take the lake and drive it into the city.

We feel so thakful to be missing Ivan...but sorry that it has to be at someone else's expense. Our best hope is that it somehow weakens before making landfall.

As I ran through South Tampa this morning I was astounded at the number of homes with windows boarded this time. Everyone was taking Ivan seriously!! Our best to all those who now face Ivan--stay safe.

TopMan, can you site a source for the 1/2 inch per hour? I know that is a lot of water to pump but I always thought it was quite a bit more.

On top of Ivan, I'm currently under warning for Tropical Storm Jeanne, expected to directly impact me tonight. I'm now concerned that she will become a hurricane and head up towards the US, as well, not to mention crossing some of the islands that have recently been devastated.

I have lived in the islands for nearly 12 years and I do not EVER remember a season this active. :(

Oh, no, Statia. Has your husband already left for Houston?

Yes, Jocelyn, he left yesterday. Looks like I'm going to get to ride out my first one alone. :( It's going to be a bumpy night.

What terrible timing! Have you thought about staying with a friend?

Want to read about NOLA and the canals, impact of a hurricane, etc:

http://www.southbear.com/New_Orleans/Geography.html

Most interesting are:
Man's Interaction With The Land
A False Environment?

Very very interesting Austin. Thanks for posting.

OO, "I was astounded at the number of homes with windows boarded this time"
We've thought the same thing over here in the Indian Rocks beach area. We find ourselves grading them as to who's done the best job. We've got some real craftsmen around here.
Patrick, how's the surf down in Naples? I was expecting big waves here, but when I went to get the kids and checked out the Gulf, I saw that our Gulf was as flat as it normally is.

We returned from vacation on Sunday, to find the Tampay Bay area in a flurry of boarding. Very serious atmosphere for sure. But Monday afternoon things began lightening up.

Hibiscushouse, the big surf is expected later tonight and Wednesday (high tide 4 pm wednesday). Here on Treasure Island, the beach is completely eroded from last week's tussle with Frances. Many gulfront homes had their fences washed away! So we are worried about them...the irony is that the beach renourishment project was shut down as a precaution - and they stopped at our street. So when they resume, hopefully they'll replace ALL the sand...they say if they've passed your street and it gets washed away they won't return.

Let's hope and pray (yes pray!) that this thing picks up speed, but goes down to a cat 3...or even lower. As of right now, it's still a four, even though they had predicted a lowering as it left Cuba. Hang in there, Panhandle!

Are there any New Orleans locals still hanging around? It's not looking good for them:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../142025.shtml?

To summarize, Ivan is expected to make landfall at AT LEAST a Cat 3, storm surge 10-16 feet, rainfall at least 10-15 inches.

My heart and prayers, and donations! go out to those in Florida as well. I'm in NY and was supposed to fly to Charleston SC for the weekend. Is this a bad idea since Ivan's path should be there by Sunday?

just a quick report from LA--voluntary evacuation for New Orleans and the parishes E and south of there. I-10 at least as far north as Baton Rouge, plus highways going north have been packed solid since early this morning. They say they're only expecting the Baton Rouge area to get about 20 MPH winds but my husband is still readying the plywood and covering all our important belongings with plastic!

I've volunteered for hurricane relief efforts Louisiana when I lived in Texas before, and just want to say that my thoughts and prayers are with all those in Louisian and other areas facing the onslaught of Ivan. Stay safe and update us when you can.