hurricane irene from UK
 

Flying in to JFK on Monday afternoon from UK. Hurricane path appears to hit NYC around Monday. To avoid flight problems/delays/disruption etc. should we try for earlier flights say on Saturday or Sunday or should we wait till hurricane passes and fly later? Do the winds increase in front of hurricanes or in the rear?

weather2travel.gov good UK site to monitor

Personally always wise to wait till the storm passes

It usually does very quickly...

The "Eye Wall" following winds are always the strongest

from personal experience so best to just wait

www.guotwright.com insurance always wise for me.

Good luck!

I would try to reschedule later in the week. If you arrive before the storm, you will have a couple of days of heat, humidity, and heavy rain, entirely apart from wind issues. If you arrive a day or so after, perhaps Thursday, you can expect some disruption but clear skies and dry air for the Labor Day weekend.

Having said that, you are not the only people to whom this will have occured, and you need to get on it right away.

The situation is developing continuously, but you can watch thee bestt information on

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

the government's hurricane center, although asking where the storm will go at this point is a bit like asking if it will rain today in the UK. It will certainly happen somewhere.

On the storm's currently likely track, you can expect Washington, Philadelphia, Newark, New York, and Boston to have significant cancellations and delays. The issue here is that these are alternative points of entry for EU/UK/US flights when they are diverted, and they are all likely to be negatively affected.

Good luck!

weather2travel.com quotewright.com sorry link dyslexic today

As a gulf veteran of Camille Frederick George Ivan Katrina

and many others always was to respect the power ot these storms

and wait till they pass...

I'd keep the reservation you have, unless you have tons of flexibility. There are going to be cancelled flights and seats are going to be sparse. If you want to change, try Tuesday or Wednesday

The forecasts show that this will be a very fast moving storm arriving some time Sunday to early Monday. Outside the 6-12 hrs or so of active rain & wind you will likely get normal late summer weather which has been beautiful of late.

Switching from Monday to Sunday may do you no good since Irene may blow through NY on Sunday. Your Monday flight would track directly over the remnants of the storm which shouldn't be a problem.

My guess is that Sunday is the worst day to plan to fly.
Monday will likely be ok, but if you can switch to a Saturday flight that would definitely put your flight ahead of the storm.

Typically by the time a hurricane reaches the NY area it weakens to a tropical storm. There can still be a LOT of rain and winds, but it's rare that the winds will be hurricane force any longer.

www.weather.com has good Irene info.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurri...ats_2011-08-23

Our wether people are talking about the storm hitting late Sat and Sun - by Mon there may still be delays but the worst should be over. Much better after than sitting here is a really nasty storm and having a day of vacation ruined. But- I think your safe choices are either Friday or Mon - not the weekend.

Seems to be a challenging ..... at this moment, changing your flight (if possible) may not assure a more reliable choice. As already pointed out, this storm likely will impact most airports along Eastern seaboard ..... right now Irene is huge, being 400 miles wide. Also, keep in mind, when a large storm impacts one section of country, there are "ripple effects" ..... consequently, planes get out of position and equipment which would have been in the UK ready to fly to USA, isn't there.

Coming earlier is not a good idea, IMO. If later in the week is available to you and fits your plans, that might be OK if you want to avoid all the immediate aftermath of a messy storm.

Winds increase to the east of the hurricane's path.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmosphiric Administration - the "official" weather folks in the US, it should all be over by Monday afternoon. Sunday and particularly Sunday night would be worst. Your flight to the US might well be delayed though if JFK takes any significant damage - it is in a very vulnerable spot.

Thanks for the advice, we don't get storms like you do so the replies were appreciated. Advice not to come early is sound so we will try to come on Wednesday if our Monday flight is cancelled.

Ta

I'm not sure if socialworker is referring to the "messy aftermath" only as it pertains to flying, or to the mess hurricanes tend to cause in the cities they go through, but one time I flew to NY knowing a hurricane was headed that way. I did have to overnight in Detroit, but was fortunate to get on the first plane out the next morning. That day in the city was spectacular -- spectacular weather and the city glistened. You never would have know the it had even rained had you not be aware of the hurricane otherwise.

I would not come in Saturday, Sunday or Monday. I would wait until at least Tuesday. This storm looks pretty serious and looks like it will arrive as a hurricane and not a tropical storm. We, on the north shore of LI, are watching closely and taking it very seriously.

By messy aftermath, I was referring to both the potential for actual physical damage from winds and water (from the huge downpours that can be as much as 10 inches of rain, and possible wind destruction from ~100 mph winds/gusts) as well as all of the rescheduling necessary for passengers.

The current forecast has Irene passing through NY before noon on Sunday and long gone by Monday morning. I think your best bet is to stick with your current Monday flight.

georgec - the site that you want to watch is www.noaa.gov

As of now, the storm should be arriving a Sunday afternoon and evening into the night. The weather report for JFK on Monday is mostly sunny and windy with a high in the low 80sF. As the day goes on, it will improve. Again, the problem would be any damage to JFK that could delay arrivals.

Potentially useful (if a tad disconcerting) but gives a good overall picture of how hurricanes travel for those unfamiliar with them, and a reminder of the power of them for those who have not seen one for a while.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...e-worst-no.asp

It is not just airport damage that you have to worry about. Planes will be scattered all over -- some because they were evacuated, some because they were diverted, and some because they were held on the ground at the point of origin.

If your plane is cancelled it may be days before you can be rescheduled. It happens every winter and in hurricane season.

Thus, if you can reschedule yourselves for the end of the week, do it. If you can't, hope that your flight (a) has an aircraft and (b) is allowed to take off for NY.

<<The current forecast has Irene passing through NY before noon on Sunday and long gone by Monday morning.>> But if it hits as a Cat 1 (which is the intensity the weather service is currently predicting although the track is still somewhat unclear) the effects will linger on. I think many people in the area are unaware of just how vulnerable the area is to storm surge (not to mention loss of electricity). If you want to see for yourself, click on Category One and pan the map up to the New York area: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

Here's hoping it goes harmlessly out to sea and none of that happens, but be aware that although the hurricane may be gone, problems may still remain.

I think the realistic problems in the NYC area are high winds downing trees which will bring down the power lines - and it may take 24 to 48 hours to get that fixed in the suburbs. But the airports are right next to the bay - and a large storm surge can back up flights in and out - and mean planes in the wrong places.

Once you get to Manhattan you're fine. (Our power and phone lines are underground and many streets don't have trees - and subways and buses will be running.) But there may be airport delays and it could take a long time to get in from the airports.

The last time I recall a major hurricane hitting there was so much rain that the storm sewers took a while to empty - meanng lots of big puddles - but this was gone within 12 to 24 hours.

The areas subject to storm surges and beach erosion are in the outer boroughs or suburbs and quite small and not places most visitors get to,

Actually if NYC takes a direct hit as a Cat 1, there is potential for serious storm surge which could impact lower Manhattan. BUT, right now this storm is still a few days away, and is off coast of Florida ..... a wobble to east or west can significantly change how this storm will affect NY, etc.

.... potential for "once in a 50 year hurricane" >>>
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...lam-into-t.asp

michelleNYC: I so agree with you. Mayor Bloomberg was talking about the potential for evacuations on tonight's newscast. It is possible that the subways and all mass transit, including trains, will be closed if this storm reaches it potential. If there's any chance of flooding they'll close the subways even before the storm hits.

Err on the side of caution here, I think.

I'm voting for Monday based on tonight's forecast. It should be gone by Monday. Sat and Sunday will be no good. And if you postpone you may not get here till Thursday. Bonne voyage.

The storm will be gone by Monday but its aftermath may still affect the city, I fear.

JFK is right by Jamaica Bay. In fact one of the runways juts into the water. If there is a storm surge, it could effect the lighting on the runways or the runways themselves.

thanks again. I have taken all into consideration and have been lucky to reschedule for Wednesday. Same flight. Have to alter some dinner/theatre/tour reservations. It will be interesting to find which organisations accept the alterations etc. I will keep you informed.

georgec --

Good course of action ..... already several of US carriers are pro-actively cancelling some flights. And likely, most all airlines will waive fees to change flights if original itinerary is for Sat/Sun/Mon.

http://www.petergreenberg.com/2011/0...ng-east-coast/

My SIL was due to arrive from the UK on Sunday evening. American already offered to rebook, which she did and now she is arriving On Tuesday. Do not come on Sat or Sun.

CNN reporting that if storm hits full, the surge will put JFK under 15 to 20 feet of water......

Mayor Bloomberg this afternoon,Friday, has ordered the evacuation of parts of 5 New York City counties and all of Wall Street and the Battery in lower Manhattan.

Last bad storm in Florida, Wilma in October o5 took three weeks to restore electricity.

I would think it might be wise to change vacation plans to later in September.

At this point on Sunday noon it would seem Irene will be out to sea and its OK on Monday. Just now getting some wind here in Boston with Monday supposed to be clear and fair. Certainly in days thereafter no problems. NYC should be back to normal.

Despite hysterical and inaccurate reports above, there was nothing that even approached those levels of surges in NYC. No one in Manhattan has lost any power.

By chance we had lunch Friday with a fellow who struck up a converstaion with us. He was a retired airport manager and he was called in to help with Irene. His assessment was spot on. He said, there would be 40-70 mile an hour winds, there would a surge that would cover the tarmacs and there would be debris everyhwere but no lasting damage.

He was hopeful that JFK would at least be partially open by Monday.

There have not been any alerts one way or another fro JFK but Manhattan, is thankfully, relatively damage free, except for some fallen frees. We just took a walk over to the East River, it was fairly calm.

The only delays I would have in my trip are those imposed by your carrier.

As of this minute their are still very high seas (storm surges) and the sea did break through into residentiak areas in a couple of places in the Rockaways. But we did miss the worst - barely. (The surge/high tide topped out about 6" below the sea walls for Manhattan. But there has been a lot of flooding due to incredibly heavy rains and at the moment roads are a mess - although power outages (primarily due to downed trees) are scattered all around the city.

The airports are still closed today for cleaning and it is anticipated that flights will begin again some time tomorrow - but do not expect all flights to be on time - or to happen at all - since many hundreds of planes are in the wrong places. So - anyone planning on coming to any airport on the east coast check with airports before you head to the airport.

The city is clearing the public transit system (removing downed trees from train lines and bus routes and and pumping rainwater from subway stations). The system will come back on line in sequence with subways last, since the entire track has to be walked in daylight before starting full - train service, which is anticipated for sometime late tomorrow, It is anticipated that the seas should be calm enough be tonight to restart the Staten Island ferry. All major bridges and tunnels are operative except for the outgoing Holland tunnel, which has a flooded entrance in Manhattan, but should be operative by tomorrow morning.

Despite some scaremongers who projected massive looting - there was none. in fact there were only 45 arrests overnight - versus a usual 350 for a Sat night in August.

Notably several idiots went out into the bay in kayaks Sat night. Naturally the kayaks overturned and they were left floating in the sea. The NYPD marine police sent out a boat to rescue them (successfully) and the idiots were given summonses and are being required to pay the cost of sending out the boat (and risking the lives of those police for no reason.)

I live in Manhattan in a west Chelsea neighborhood that was designated as a mandatory evacuation zone due to the proximity of the water and low-laying land, and everything today is perfectly fine. Electricity remained on the whole time, and the city has snapped back to normal already. Airports are opening up, so I'd hop on the next flight to NYC and avoid detaining your trip any further over the hurricane.

However, if you were planning on going to beaches (e.g. the Hamptons) I'd check the status of the specific area. Many beaches near NYC had some damage, so I'd research and you may need to explore alternate options. But the city is totally fine.

Tourist areas of the city re totally fine - except Central Park which is still closed. They are removing fallen trees and checking others for status.

There are still problems in residential areas in the outer boroughs and suburbs - mostly due to fallen trees (that is, electricity out and some commuter trains and Amtrak stopped until they can clear all of the trees of the tracks.

Thanks again everyone,
Flying into JFK tomorrow (Wednesday) for 10 day visit. Had to change hotel as extra days were not available. Slightly more expensive. Changed tour dates, no problem. Rescheduled Big Greeter, thanks Gordon. It may be a rush for theater at 7pm Wednesday, but haho!!
looking forward to your great city and hope no one has any great hurricane/ flood damage.
Hope to do a trip report???

The weather is supposed to be perfect at least through Sunday. Enjoy the city.

Central Park pen today. You can see a number of very large old trees that either fell in the storm or were pulled down as dangerous. This AM they were starting to cut up and remove them. So now Park is packed with walkers, joggers, bikers, etc.

I don't think a visitor should ever change plans to arrive BEFORE a hurricane or tropical storm. There are simply too many unknowns related to electricity, water, and such in the aftermath of the storm.

While the effects of Irene on NYC might not have been too bad this time, imagine if the OP had been scheduled to visit Vermont! Never underestimate the power of a hurricane or tropical storm. And never think the "next one" won't be bad just because the "last one" wasn't!

Wonderful advice from Cranachin.

Humans have a built in bias -- this is real science -- for overestimating optimistic outcomes. This bias is alive and well on travel forums.

Without going to the opposite extremes -- unwarranted paranoia or analysis paralysis, also both in evidence here -- you really have to work to at being rational when all you want to do is make that trip because you have so much invested in the planning.