Going to Florida, worried about recent Shark Attacks
 

Hi! I will be visiting a friend in Tampa for 2 weeks in August. I love swimming and snorkelling, but I am bit worried about the recent shark attacks. I have travelled to other tropical places and never had a worry. I know sharks don't purposely go out to hunt humans and that your more likely to be struck by lightning. Common sense also prevails. What do other board members think?

Cindy, <BR>Please, for the benefit of all, just do a search on the board for keyword "shark". You will get more opinions than you could wish for. This topic has been "chewed up"(pun intended)ad nauseum.

Very loooong debate/discussion about this just a couple weeks ago. <BR>And for lots of basic info, I believe the 'shark issue' graces the cover of Time or Newsweek at present. Haven't looked at it. <BR>Percentage wise your likelihood of being in an earthquake while visiting California is much, much higher. I can't recall anyone ever saying they would never visit SF or LA because of their fear of EQ's (though I'm sure such unfortunate souls exist).

Stay home

If the Good Lord has it written that [email protected] will perish in the mouth of a shark, it shall be done. <BR> <BR>Realistically, though, don't obsess over it but if you're in the water, pay a little more attention that you normally would. The odds of nothing happening are definitely in your favor.

Could anyone tell me the odds of being bitten by a shark in Florida, relative to the odds of being struck by lightening or being hit by a car. I'll be staying at a resort in FLorida that does not have a big giant fence in the water to keep out the sharks, and I'm beginning to worry that I might be eaten!

Well, I can address the traffic safety risk ... and you can calculate your own odds. Last year, 42,000 killed in crashes on highways, another 3.2 million reported as injured. The death rate is 1.6 people killed for every 100 million miles of vehicle mileage driven. I think the shark issue pales by comparison. I'd swim and not be concerned. By the way, experts suggest you not swim except during bright daylight hours, and do so in groups. Ciao

Wear seat belts. Don't jay walk. Don't speed. Check your tire pressure. Watch out for sharks. <BR> <BR>By the way, L, I guessed on another thread that you're a government lawyer with NHTSA. Am I right? Come on, you can tell me.

If you're in Tampa, I think you're much more likely to be run over by a out of control Darryl Strawberry than eaten by a shark.

Shark: <BR>All of these odds were discussed in the previous threads. Be advised though that the odds are a lot higher than they appear when compared to other risks. This is beacause you are at risk of shark attack for a relatively short period of time 1e. only when you are in shark infested waters. By contrast you are at risk of earthquake or lightning strike 24 hrs a day every day. The risk is still very low but if in the water your risk of shark attack per hour is much higher than being killed by lighting while on land. All statistics can be found on international shark attack file web site(university of Florida). Not to overly worry since it is still a small risk.

The way you all are throwing around "statistics" is distorting what the actual risks are. It is inaccurate and inappropriate to compare, say, risks of automobile deaths to shark deaths, by citing the AVERAGE POPULATION AT LARGE. Why? <BR> <BR>In the normal course of my day (as with the vast majority of people) I may take several car trips but I won't be splashing in the ocean. So of course the risk of my being bitten by a shark that day is truly 'zero'. Similarly, I never ride trains, so statistics about my risk of injury in a train wreck are utterly irrelevant. <BR> <BR>The correct situation to analyze risks for is this: <BR> of people splashing in shallow tropical waters during early morning & dusk, what are the chances of a shark attack? <BR> <BR>I suspect that the shark risk is still extremely low, but THIS is the relevant situation to analyze, and not compare it to being struck by lightning or dying in a car wreck. Unfortunately most news writers lack even a rudimentary understanding of high school freshman probability, and this is how most people get a sense of the risks of every day life. <BR> <BR>Similar fallacies: <BR> <BR>What are risks of being struck by lightning? <BR>- Very high if you are out on a golf course during a thunderstorm. <BR>- Extremely low if you are indoors. <BR> <BR>So making sweeping statements about 'lightning strikes' vs 'shark bites' is irrelevant. <BR> <BR>What's important is not to engage in high risk behaviour: <BR>being on the golf course during a T-storm; <BR>swimming in tropical waters during feeding time; etc.

Risk Averse, that's published information all of us should know it, so not logical to conclude anything. Pilots love to tell us that when the plane lands and we drive, the dangerous part fo our journey has just begun. Do I now fly a plane? But I bet you already knew that information, so perhaps you're the one with DOT. My real avocation and vocation are actually related ... life, travel. So, have a good day. Ciao

Once again, look up Dr. Burgess at the University of Fla. He is THE world's foremost expert on shark attacks. You can easily find his information by doing a search for the International Shark Attack File. I have met this guy several times via my work with museums and he or his staff will answer any questions you might have.

Oooooh, L. You are such a mystery! How I love that in a man.

Tom: <BR>I've been trying to say this all along. Unfortunately, as you say, most people don't seem to get a clue about how to determine risk. <BR> <BR>Let's try this: If you are swimming in the Ocean off Florida you are at risk of being hit by lightning. But your risk of getting attacked by a shark is much higher. And while swimming, your risk of getting hit by a car or killed by an earthquake are near zero. Again, your risk of getting eaten by a shark would be much higher. But, while driving in your car in Ohio your chances of getting attacked by a shark are much lower than being struck by lightning or being killed in a car crash. If you are splashing around in murkey waters off Florida at dusk your risk can be substantial. It is wise to take some precautions. These precautions can be found at the international shark attack web site. <BR>Your risk, however is still very low if just swimming at the beach when there have been no shark sightings.

Thank you all for your help and information. Based on it, I have cancelled my trip to Florida. I have decided instead to go to Australia and snorkel on the Great Barrier Reef. I will feel much safer there, as there are no cars on the reef.

L: <BR>Why do the experts advise swimming in groups? Really...I want to know.

Shark: <BR>Interestingly, you have made a statisticaly wise choice. The latset figure show there were 34 shark attacks in Florida in 1999. Australia with a much larger ocean area had only 7 attacks. Don't know about their lightning risk though.

But what is my risk of being gobbled by a shark whilst driving in a car that leaves the roadway and plunges into shark infested waters? Does it matter if I have the windows rolled up or down at the time?

Gerry, <BR>I have already been struck by lightening once. Do you know what the statistics are for a person being struck by lightening twice are?