It’s interesting to compare our situation in Australia to the rest of the world. We had a trip to Japan booked in March primarily to visit our daughter and grandchildren but the flights were cancelled. I’m now just hoping we’ll be allowed to travel in our own state (Queensland) soon, as just being able to get in the car and go to a beach 100km away and stay a few nights seems incredibly exciting to me after being in lockdown for so long.

After that they might unlock our borders so we could travel to another state - even more exciting! And if and when New Zealand allows travel there it will be really amazing as it will be an overseas flight!

The idea of traveling to Europe or even Japan though seems like a fairy tale at the moment. My husband says he won’t go to either country until there’s a vaccine, so that could be quite a while.

I have to agree with you jacooper. When we had to cancel our trip to France, leaving April 2nd, we thought we would head out in the camper. But that has not happened either. We are also in Queensland, and like you, we are waiting for the time we can at least travel within our state. Two of our children and grandchildren live in ACT and NSW and I think it will be awhile before we get down there. It is interesting to look at the figures from other countries. At the moment I am pleased we live where we do.

Hi Rhon

Yes, I agree we’re lucky to live here in Australia. New Zealand would also be a great place to live at the moment. We live in Brisbane and normally would be heading over the border into New South Wales for a few days to somewhere like Yamba at this time of year. It’s frustrating not to be able to do that now.

We are in Toowoomba and we go down to Pottsville and Lennox Head regularly. If it opens up within Queensland we might head to the coast, Hervey Bay or up to Yeppoon. With all the grey nomad southerners who usually fill the caravan parks in Queensland in winter being locked out, we might actually get a site!!!

Isn’t it funny how even a few days somewhere fairly local now seems like an exciting destination...

Because nobody, from you to kerouac to Warren Buffett, can predict the state of the economy in the future. (Although Buffett is probably better at it than many.) So you might be right, or partly right; ditto kerouac might be right, or partly right.

My guess is that kerouac is thinking of the sixties, seventies, and even the eighties when airfares were much higher, inflation adjusted, than they were today. The phrase 'the jet set' was coined to describe the relatively small cohort of people who could afford to fly. He may well be right, this might happen.

Price and demand are usually related, as you point out, but so is price and risk, and right now risk in the transportation business is very high. To adjust for the risk of virus transmission, they have had to institute a lot of procedures in airports which increase overheads. While demand for seats is very low, as you point out, there is demand for significantly more spacing between seats from those who are flying, spacing in the feet rather than mere inches. The president of Ryanair has said his model can't adjust for this. If Ryanair folds, and who knows, it might, and if other airlines fold, which is very likely for at least some of them, that means a significant loss of supply to offset loss of demand.

Support industries also face risk. Airlines must pay for the storage of the aircraft they had already agreed to lease (or outright own) for many years into the future that they are not presently able to fly, owing to loss of demand. The storage facility could lower prices, but only so much as they can't afford to run at a loss, either. Airlines may have fuel and maintenance contracts that may be somewhat renegotiable but not entirely, for the same reason.

I agree that 'overtourism' has its downsides, but when seven or eight billion people expect to eat every day, it becomes a matter of deciding whose job and livelihood is the surplus. Governments will face enormous pressure from people to try to go back to a semblance of 'normal' but this is not going to be cheap.

I think the days of super cheap flights and mass market packages (also very cheap) based on overcrowding on bus/plane and hotels will return...not this year but down the line. What I think will be more interesting to watch is the kind of trip that many of us will want to take. Many more will be looking at business for first class than before....the price for space may be much more justified. Also type of vacation...I know I am far more interested in less dense environments...minus the packed elevators of 50 floor hotels...more will be avoiding major cities and heading for less crowded places...self catering will be popular as with more villa style options with private entrance...a style more suited to social distancing which is not going away. Never been a bus tour or cruise fan and they will resume at some point...but the very audience they attract (seniors) may choose to avoid those crowded conditions. For me the biggest challenge will be the travel days flight/transfer etc. On the ground is think will be manageable. But for this year staying home...don't see a choice.

I worked for an airline for 35 years, and I know how they are ready to pounce on the market whenever they can get away with raising the fares. If any of the budget airlines falter in the coming months (Ryanair, Southwest or whatever), the predators are there and waiting.

Lois your idea of people changing the type of trip they want to take is very interesting. Particularly since destinations will be both eager for, and terrified of, tourists returning for some time. You may well be right, that packages designed around lower density tourism would be welcomed back first. I'm not sure though how legally feasible this would be. Would it not mean governments of supposedly free market countries giving precedence to specific companies, not just specific forms of travel?

According to statista.com, visitors to France (admittedly includes more than Paris) origins by nationality, 2018:
The US - 5 %
China - 2.4 %

So neither the Americans nor the Chinese are big visitor origins to France as a whole compared to the UK (14.6%) or Germany (13.7%) or Belgium-Luxembourg (13%). Just those three alone add up to over 40 per cent of the numbers. Per capita expenditure I wouldn't be surprised to learn the Chinese were big spenders, but collectively the top three will capture the most spending by sheer volume alone. And we still haven't counted in the UK plus EU as a whole.

The signs in Chinese might simply reflect that they are the largest lingual group not to use the same alphabet as French. Their numbers in nominal terms might make it worth everyone's while to have basic navigational instructions in Chinese, as most French/Parisian police and transit workers don't likely speak even a smattering of Chinese. But the Chinese visitors are still dwarfed in numbers by the EU nations which, despite a plethora of languages, still use the same alphabet.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-residence/

I'm very keen to know how this pans out as currently my fiancée is in France and I'm in Singapore. I really hope we don't have to be stuck apart until next year!!:cry:

So in my case it's not a matter of just wanting to take a holiday somewhere. Of course, i understand why international travel should be banned....but it just sucks not knowing when or how long until we can see each other again. I hope by implementing a mandatory 2 week quarantine on arrival into any country (and i think it's a good idea), it might allow travel to open up sooner.

I too would love to go to the coast three hours away, or visit family in Adelaide. Even be happy with a visit to a restaurant or cafe, especially on a Saturday morning, where we have breakfast and read the weekend paper.

Listening to all the experts here in Australia they are all saying international borders will not be opening in the near future or for some time. I’m amazed that the French Government is letting Brits into the country without self isolation, and vice versa. If we have to add on two weeks isolation on arrival in France, and then arrival back home, we won’t be visiting anywhere

I do wonder if this is isolation will be around for a long time ( I think it will be in place) , and as this would be 14 days out of the 90 day visa time, what impact that will have on France.

Hope you are all keeping safe, and for those affected by this virus, please note that the health and welfare of the people in France, and the world in general are more important.

A required quarantine imposed on arriving travelers in any country would in effect stop tourism. Not many willing to sit 14 days in a foreign country just for tourism.

^ Not everyone could afford to add 14 more days to their itinerary for quarantine, either. So yes, I can see that curbing travel for the foreseeable future.

Slovenia opens borders.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/75755192.cms

That is a daring proclamation for a small country surrounded by infected countries.

France and Spain are currently negotiating their common border since Spain wants a 14-day quarantine on all sides even though most of the EU wants to open their borders as of June 15th. If Spain does not back down, France will apply a 14-day quarantine to Spain.

Is there any talk about when the international borders might be open to the US?

I’m not pushing for them to do it, mind you, but I have tickets in and out of Paris in the fall, and the earlier I can deal with my reservations, the more relieved I’ll be.

"Is there any talk about when the international borders might be open to the US?"

I don't think so, but I think you have a good chance to be able to travel in the autumn.

I'm not so sure. Trump's "Die for the Dow" open up no matter what policy virtually guarantees a second peak wave of disease and death, according to actual epidemiology and infectious disease experts. Only uneducated politicians and their followers disagree. I don't think other countries will want visitors from the US then.

I have read absolutely no predictions for opening Europe to the rest of the world yet. It will be based on the evolution of the situation in all of the countries on all of the continents. While geopolitical affinities will certainly play a role in the decisions, if I were to make a decision based on the information currently available, it would look to me like Southeast Asia and Oceania would be the first places allowed to enter with no restrictions, followed perhaps by Africa. The world turned on its head, as it were… the situation in the Americas and Russia is still looking pretty bad.

Thanks, BDKR, AJPeabody, and kerouac. It would be nice to know, but I do get that it’s really a wait-and-see situation. And honestly, I would be surprised if the US would be allowed to enter the EU by the fall. But I don’t have my crystal ball booted up, either.

How about the other way round, when will the US open up to people from other countries? Probably not many tourists want to come now, but I have friends who would like to visit their family, mainly grandparents to see their grandkids, they would stay put in one place and not travel within the US.

I would say that perhaps the best indicator for Americans to watch will be how long it takes for the US/Canada border to reopen. Since those two countries are supposed to be among the best friends in the world, if those borders remain closed it would be absurd to think that other borders would magically open.

What you say makes perfect sense kerouc, the US/Canada border will be the first to open, only then visitors from other countries.

Kerouac-A couple of years ago, when I was getting VAT tax rebate paperwork for purchases made at Galleries Lafayette, the employee who was going over my receipts and passport said in a not very complimentary tone, “the Chinese only come once, but people like you come back many times”.

I live in a smallish seaside town north of LA, Santa Barbara, that finally had allowed cruise ships to dock and many of the passengers I would see roaming around downtown were Asian. Can’t imagine they will be coming back soon to California or to Paris.

Yes, we go back every year, this year I had three trips planned, May, June and September!

I disagree. Switzerland is planning to open its borders with Germany, France and Austria as of June 15.

""Tourism can resume between the three countries from mid-June, provided the conditions are right," she confirmed."

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/free-mo...rders/45756568

I actually disagree...I think once borders are open and things settle down to some sort of new normal Asians including will be back in US and France. They spend some serious money and with both countries looking to build economy back up they will be welcome.

Lois-I think they will be back, but not for a year or two. Most travelers and countries are going to be very wary of restarting international travel (and reigniting a second round of the pandemic). I think a vaccine is going to be the key to getting back to any kind of normal levels of tourism and travel. My son and his fiancée are moving to Hawaii at the end of the month and will be in quarantine for 2 weeks as they should be. Doubt that tourists want to do that though.

Right now our PM is saying not until at least June 21st, and that is not hard and fast at all; it's a kind of wait and see situation.

right that is what I meant by "when things settle down" that is not this year...maybe with some serious luck next year. And for quite some time we will all have to weight the risk vs benefit of travel...some of us have more to consider.

German and Dutch tourists have much more impact on the tourist economy, but I don't think the Dutch will be welcome anywhere in Europe this summer.

The Dutch have a reputation in France of buying only bread locally for a month long holiday. They even bring bags of potatoes and cases of beer in their caravans. :serious:

Kerouac, no worries, my friend. However, my personal prediction is that Americans will be able to travel to Europe by mid July again.

I don’t think a vaccine is the key. I simply don’t think tourist dependent areas can/will wait that long. Hawaii is already loosening restrictions, and I’d be surprised if they haven’t opened up for tourism by August-September. Same with Europe. It would take a second wave, along the lines of Italy, China, or NYC, to shut everything down longer. It’s not merely retail, dining, etc—it’s also tax money, port money, infrastructure. Plus people’s memories are short. I’ve seen more and more maskless or just nutty mask wearing here in the last week

(bizarrely, hundreds Of tourists are/were landing in Hawaii. Clearly many planning to break quarantine, police have their hands full enforcing that).

Many countries have pay as you go pension systems. If nobody works. Nobody pays into the system. In some cases pretty quickly they can't keep paying the pensions.

How much of that border is REALLY closed? Almost none of it is patrolled. There are even a few towns that straddle it.

It doesn't really matter if it invalidates all of your insurance and health coverage to cross a forbidden border.

I agree with you - that’s why I’m still holding onto hope and a ticket to Athens for mid-July.