British Pound Plummeting - Economy on the Rocks?
 

Pound at $1.85 - down from over $2.00 not long ago - 11th straight day decline against dollar - most straight days in 37 years say Guardian

Guardian says fears of the British economy being in tatters is fueling the dumping of the pound.

Great new for travelers if it keeps sinking like a rock. How far will the pound go down?

The pound is virtually unchanged since March between .78 and .80

There must be something wrong with the dollar, not the pound. :-)

The "tatters" argument's misplaced: there' no significant difference between UK and US unemployment, economic growth or inflation. And the UK economy's still growing - unlike most ofthe Eurozone.

The currency's going down partly because of relative optimism about the US and partly because the markets think UK interest rates (the highest of the major economies, and the reason for sterling's relative strength) will be cut to stimulate growth.

Don't expect the fall necessarily to continue: the last few weeks have been the sharpest sterling fall in decades, and interest rate cuts may now be fully priced in.

The Financial Times says:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc97963e-6...0779fd18c.html

Exchange rates do not reflect only the relative strengths and weaknesses of either trading economies or government finances, still those of different societies as a whole. It's mostly about where currency traders think their profit margins might be found, bearing in mind relative interest rates, and what they think all sorts of economically and financially important people think. It's all at any number of removes from most people's idea of reality, like most newspaper headlines. Life just isn't that dramatic most of the time.

Dollar and oil are inversely proportional...

Perception of worse economy in UK
higher unemployment interest rates
fueling the fire...

down to $1.83 in today's NYTimes

I've definitely been reading more and more doom-and-gloom about the UK economy lately, including a recent report that the economy stopped growing last month. Apparently, many are at least whispering recession. Certainly, it will be a tough road ahead for the UK. With high employment in financial services, they will be hit hard by the problems that sector is facing. And the UK has their own, home-grown housing and consumer credit problems.

One of the articles I read said that Australia was in even worse shape, but didn't go into too much detail as to why they thought that.

Surely, any slowdown is looking to be global, save some of the Asian economies, perhaps. So, I'm not sure it is so much that the British (or Eurozone) economy is doing that bad, but that folks are waking up to the realization that they are not doing enough better, relatively, than the US economy to justify the high price of their currency. In other words, it may be as much a realization that the sell-off of the dollar was overblown, as anything. Certainly, anyone who thought that a downturn in the US economy would remain contained there is a special kind of fool.

So reports from the Cotswolds the past few years ballyhooing the British Tiger vs American sluggishness were just hot air?

Seems so - just took longer for UK to tank than US, which now may pick up before UK bottoms out?

We've had ten years of Labour rule. It's a wonder things aren't much much worse.

There are times when the public sector is quite a nice place to be....

There are times when the public sector is quite a nice place to be....

Do you still get a nice index linked pension at 60 or has that gone nowadays?
My OH has one on hold for him from his days with a research council. He'd be retired now if we hadn't moved to Cloggieland.

Do you still get a nice index linked pension at 60 or has that gone nowadays?>>>>

Yes. But I'm sure it won't last too much longer.

WSJ: Europe's gloom is boon to dollar: "..the dollar has gained 8% vs the euro since July.....pound touched a 26 year high...left it intensely vulnerable to a reversal..the pound is the world's great whipping boy at the moment..." hehehe

And for about ten years of New Labour's rule Britain has had perhaps Europe's most vibrant economy

now that there is an inevitable downturn - in part due to greedy bankers it's all New Labour's fault

nice try at pulling the wool over our eyes.

I'd almost wish the election of Cameron were today as he would then be blamed for the ensuring recession

Labour were screwing the pooch since 1997. Everythying was on tick. Now they have to pay the bill.

Every generation has to learn about Labour governments the hard way. Now it's this lot's turn.

<i>So reports from the Cotswolds the past few years ballyhooing the British Tiger vs American sluggishness were just hot air?

Seems so - just took longer for UK to tank than US, which now may pick up before UK bottoms out?</i>

Yes and Yes, IMO. Most of the reports I've read talk about a perception that the US is better prepared to handle the downturn. And I think there is a fair bit of truth to that.

I laugh every time I read about how the UK or (to a somewhat lesser extent) Europe, will remain insulated from a US slowdown. It is just not going to happen in this day and age. The two sides of the Atlantic are just too-tightly bound.

But hey, I might start actually buying stuff in Europe again, rather than stuffing the suitcase everytime I return from the US.

Oil is down...and with it the dollar has strengthened. Now we know the real reason why.

If oil had continued to rise, a lot of resetnment would have built in in the USA towards the clown who currently occupies the White House, unfortunately for us, and might have been reflected in a Republic loss in November.

But notice as the election approaches, it is in the interest of big oil to have gasoline prices down....I am sure that by November it will be under $3/gallon here so the Republicans can say, see things aren't so bad and of course once McCain gets in, well he'll see to it that the big oil interests that rule the Republic party are able to raise the prices again.

Just you wait and see what happens between now and November and after the election!

I wonder if the Cotswold Hills will be immune from the coming recession in England?

Why, do you think they'll flatten off a bit?

Well i think as long as the wool trade keeps up the Hills will be fine - those Flemish weavers can use all they can get i think so it's rosy for Cotswoolians i think.

&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
So reports from the Cotswolds the past few years ballyhooing the British Tiger vs American sluggishness were just hot air?

Seems so - just took longer for UK to tank than US, which now may pick up before UK bottoms out?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;

of course. the provincials never learn. the lesson again and again is:
DON'T BE SMUG - it will happen here. people who have a better understanding of the world realise this and don't get smug. really pathetic and embarrassing.

we were smug about the US smoking bans until our cigs were extinguished. we were smug about the economy and now we have 0% growth and a grim outlook. we were smug about american fatness and now we are fat. i can go on and on.

we are still smug about US crime but that's fading as our headlines are nearly as violent. same for healthcare. hope they don't solve their healthcare problems then we will lose that one too....and our nhs is skidding fast...probably going into life support when the conservatives take over.

obama winning is our biggest nightmare. all of the sudden, americans look much more sane and tolerant. we only have white males people in power here...our guys will instantly look like dinosaurs...what will we do? we live for our leaders looking sane and progressive while theirs look crazy. we're doomed! we've prided ourselves on this for the last eight years. oh no.

we are a funny, funny people.

More bad news for the UK today. Hit an all-time low against the Euro, and a new 2-year low against the Dollar.

http://tinyurl.com/5ha3z9

The choices for the labour government are two.
1) Say the country is in free fall and then it does better. The conclusion would be that they &quot;pulled it out of the tail spin that the Yanks put it in&quot;
2) Say the country is in free fall and then it continues to crash. The conclusion would be that &quot;look at the mess the yanks and capatalism put us through&quot;

In reality the only people suffering so far are the idiots who borrowed more than they earn and the bankers (rhyming slang) in the city. The good news is that while jobs may reduce a large number of Poles will go home as Poland is booming and so unemployment will be unchanged.

Finally the exchange rate is a factor of the perceived interest rates in 3 to 12 months. Nothing to do with business activity.

For those with Euros (enjoy) for those with Dollars (spend carefully) for those with pounds (stay home and enjoy the weather)

&quot;More bad news for the UK today. Hit an all-time low against the Euro, and a new 2-year low against the Dollar.&quot;

For whom is this bad? And why should anyone - apart from New York hoteliers - give a monkey's fart?

<i>For whom is this bad? And why should anyone - apart from New York hoteliers - give a monkey's fart?</i>

I think you need to look a little closer at what is causing the hand-wringing/drop. Poor manufacturing numbers. Housing price decline of over 5%, YOY. Zero economic growth, and fears of recession. Questionable employment outlook. Substantial food and energy inflation. Broader inflation numbers hitting the 4% mark. Those are concrete issues that plenty of people have plenty of reason to be worried about.

But, hey, don't ask me whether I am worried, ask the people driving the UK consumer confidence numbers into the toilet. The fact of the matter is that the recent UK bounce was as dependent upon a housing bubble (both in the UK and globally) and consumer spending as in the US. When consumer confidence starts going south in an economy like that, the whole thing has a tendency to snowball, quickly.

oh no. and our government just leaked that they are very concerned about crime skyrocketing here in the uk...not just petty crime but serious crime like murders, etc drastically increasing because of the severe economic problems that the gov't is now bracing for.

refer to my previous post about the smug problem. here we have the house of smug collapsing all at once. no more smug about our 'great' economy and no more smug about our 'low' crime rate.

i'm certainly not hoping for us to have problems like this...just commenting on the uk cheerleading provincials among us that have been so giddy about the problems in america, stupidly ignoring the fact that we have our own problems. such fools.

ZERO economic growth is nothing to sneeze at.

so let's stop cheerleading and open our minds beyond just fighting for our provincial little corners. people like this are embarrassing.

for decades we have been complaining about americans' bravado about their strong economy and strong currency. as soon as the tables turned, we did the same thing. really pathetic. now we pay.

''In reality the only people suffering so far are the idiots who borrowed more than they earn and the bankers (rhyming slang) in the city.''

That's not true at all. Nearly everyone is feeling the pitch in the UK because wages are not keeping pace with the real cost of inflation.

Most of the pay rises in the sector I work in were of the order 2.5 - 3.5% this year. Yet, utility bills are going up between 10 - 35%, depending on your provider, fuel costs continue to escalate, and many food items are up about 20-25% on last years prices. Oh, and my council tax goes up at nearly double the rate of inflation every year.

Given the current climate, I wish they'd give all those house flipping property shows on TV a rest. Homes under the Hammer, Flip That House!, and a whole raft of shows made between 2004-2007 on how/why to quit your job and make money in the buy to let market. The shows seem so stale now.
Actually, I'd like them to go back and re-interview all these people to see how they're doing. Some are probably fine, I've no doubt, but others have learned the hard way that the buy to let market wasn't the pot of gold they thought it was.

Around our neck of Berkshire, there are &quot;to let&quot; signs all over the place. And of the 12 houses in the much touted one year old development near us, only four are occuped.

and btilke, maybe we will also stop droning on at dinner parties about how much our houses are worth, how much money we made on them and how we want to buy more, more, more. we are such bores.

now we need to go back to talking about the weather. equally boring but at least not as annoying.

very concerned about crime skyrocketing here in the uk...not just petty crime but serious crime like murders, &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;

So you think the murder rate will go up because of the economy.

Bugger me, but you're special.

Sorry RM67 but the UK has one of the lowest saving ratios as private individuals in the world and our government has been on a drunken binge for the last 10 years or so. If you don't put soething aside for a rainy day..

Still Brown has put a true idiot in his old job but what can you expect of the party of no talents

Oh my god, the pound has fallen by 1.5% in the last few months, that's the definite sign that Britain is sinking, they'er doomed.

So now, can I take knives and swords onboard the next flight to London to keep those plebeyens from attacking me?

I remember when they just about reached parity, so it still seems pretty good to me.

Anyway, that &quot;great news for travellers&quot; should have been a bit more specific, shouldn't it - like good news for the small percentage of world travellers comprising US citizens visiting the UK.

<i>So you think the murder rate will go up because of the economy.</i>

And why wouldn't it? There is a very strong correlation between economic distress and murder. In particular, many intra-family murders are (at least partly) caused by disputes over finances. Unemployment, home foreclosures, and rising prices on necessities sounds like a recipe for increased domestic strife to me. Beyond the household strife, the impact of foreclosures and reduced/abandoned development can quickly turn the fortunes of neighborhoods around, creating environments conducive to increased crime.

This isn't to say that Britain is suddenly going to descend into utter chaos and violence, but concerns about an increase in violent crime are not entirely misplaced, either.

That's a ridiculous generalisation. What makes you think everyone has an excess at the end of the month and can afford to save? What about pensioners, or single income households (the fastest growing demographic in the UK)? I don't know what you earn currently, but do you think you could cope on half that for any prolonged period? With exactly the same overheads, (bar, possibly food).

I really hate this stereotype that the vast majority of the population are just frittering away their wages on plasma screens and 4x4s - that's a subset of the UK - but by no means the majority of population. It's ignorant to keep perpetuating that myth.

In my last job in pharma, we had a below inflation wage increase in 2004, then no increase at all in 2005, then the site was shut down and most people took 6 months to a year to find another permananant job. The vast majority are now earning 80-90% of their previous salary, and had another below inflation pay rise this year. How long can that be sustained before people just can't cope any more?

That response was to bilboburglar

Still the shops are still full, the pubs overflow onto the streets and we are still the world's fourth largest economy.

In any case the speculators will move the Euro/dollar/pound around again in the next few months and finally Brown will have lost the election and Scotland will be an independant country as the numpties get into power due to Blair's inablity not to follow a moron.

And now the news...

<i>Oh my god, the pound has fallen by 1.5% in the last few months, that's the definite sign that Britain is sinking, they'er doomed.</i>

Nobody is saying that the UK is doomed, just that they face some tough times ahead. Besides, were people to be crying that the sky is falling, they would only be following in your footsteps - when it was the Dollar losing ground, you were more than happy to proclaim it proof of some inexorable US decline, and to offer exceedingly unqualified advice to anyone that would listen to start dumping USD.

And, could you at least be honest with your numbers? I know that you prefer to make up &quot;facts&quot; to suit your case, but the actual declines for Sterling have been greater than 1.5% against both the Euro and the Dollar. YTD, against the Euro, Sterling is down roughly 9%, with a roughly 3% drop since August 1. Even against the mid-March number you threw out earlier, Sterling is off upwards of 3% The drops against the Dollar are roughly 10% and 9%, for YTD and since August 1, respectively.

It really is simple - don't make up numbers that are easily verified, as it damages your credibility.

Well now there's an interesting thing. PalenQ (mega expert) posts once to say it's all the fault of the Labour Governments over the last 10 years.

Next thing he's berating the fall in pensions. He obviously doesn't appreciate that the old age pension was brought in by a Labour Govt - jeez the Tories couldn't care less - and do tell, PalenQ, (mega expert), exactly when that was.

Can't wait.

PalenQ - if you want to present yourself as an expert on things British you need to go to one of those free courses on British History.

Sooner the better.

Oh, and as obvious rapid right winger what makes you, all of a sudden, think pensions paid out of state funds are a good thing. Doesn't it go with your territory that people must make their own arrangements?

&lt;Well now there's an interesting thing. PalenQ (mega expert) posts once to say it's all the fault of the Labour Governments over the last 10 years.

Next thing he's berating the fall in pensions. He obviously doesn't appreciate that the old age pension was brought in by a Labour Govt - jeez the Tories couldn't care less - and do tell, PalenQ, (mega expert), exactly when that was&gt;

I said nothing to that effect - before maligning me get your stuff right - please show me my quotes where i said the was the fault of the Labour government or pensions, which i admittedly know nothing about

you have serious errored and makes you look foolish. Skewer me for what i say not something you make up

you made the charge now show me my words

PS - i was defending the Labour government and said it presided over an unparalleled recent growth.