Ackkk!! The Euro is going up as I watch it. I leave for Paris on Sunday!!
 

It's now 1.37 to the dollar. Buying in advance would cost $1.44 today. Probably more tomorrow. What to do?? I'm glad the apartment is paid for!

Hi, gomiki. I'd certainly wait and get Euro at an ATM once you get there. But then again, I'm no financial expert! I just know that my SIL just came back from Ireland a week ago and mentioned that it'd recently been down to a dollar twenty something.

Hi go,

Up from about $1.25 last week.

"que sera, sera".

The Fed is going to "buy" $300B of Treasury bonds.

This is the beginning of the big slide in the dollar.

Think how happy you will be when it is back to $1.50 when I go in Sept.

((I))

Caph, it was 1.25 just a few days ago!!

That's so frustrating, gomiki!

I booked some hotels a couple weeks back when we were 1.27ish and I just got my CC bill...they converted me at 1.30!! In the past this CC has been within a penny of the 'official' conversion rates.

ira, it's all relative I guess. Someone in our party bought them here a few weeks ago and paid $1.34 with the fees. That looks good now!

Caph, yes, it is. That's 12 cents on the dollar more today than a few days ago! I wonder how high it will go.

IRA is quite correct. The Fed is flooding the U.S. banking system by buying Treasury securities, thus increasing bank liquidity in order to encourage bank lending. Inflation here at home -- just now -- is negligible. Our exports also will be encouraged by a cheaper dollar. However, those who can afford European travel will have to bite the bullet and suffer with this cheaper dollar. Over time, as our economy improves, inflation here at home most likely will become a greater concern. Remember Gresham's Law? It works. We hope.

This is one reason why I never cash in my euros or swiss francs before coming home. I know (barring unforeseen circumstances) that I will be returning to Europe and will need their currencies again. No matter the rates... I keep what I have "left over" which can sometimes be rather substantial.

Heading to ZRH next Thursday with my supply of francs and euros in hand.

Gomiki, have a great time. Will you be in BOS in Oct again?

Carol

USNR, thanks for increasing my knowledge. I looked up Gresham's Law.

Carol, have a wonderful time! Yes, I will be at the GTG (g-d willing). I hope to see you there!

Carol-Are you in Bangkok right now? Will miss you at the L.A. GTG day after tomorrow. Happy Travels!

Does anyone know anything about these Travelex cashpassport cards??--it's a prepaid foreign currency exchange card. There are quite a few of them in UK but AFAIK, only this one here in US. You can put up to maybe $10,000 (not sure of the top limit)and exchange them for euros at current rates--i.e., lock it in before dollar continues to slide further. There is a $10 one-time fee for the card and it does charge ATM fees (not sure how much--$2.00 or so?) when you take the money out. Obvously there is also the initial currency transaction fee that they charge, which I think is much higher than you would get doing it in Euroland, $200 at a time--but you've locked in today's rate. I have about 4 hotels that I've booked (I'll be in Italy 6 weeks, France for 1) and only paid a down payment on one of them. I'm getting freaked by the weakening dollar and trying to think of something I can do to lock in current rates. I might repost this to get more responses.

gomiki, forgive me for highjacking here. But I have a related question. I need to buy train ticktets for mid-June London to York then York to Edinburgh. I was told I can save a fair bit by buying them 8 to 12 weeks ahead. This past Monday was the 12 week ahead mark. I haven't checked the web site so don't know whether their prices are at their lowest. But, assuming they are (or near there), do I buy them now anticipating that the GBP will go up between now and the 8 week mark?

Not sure of the sense of frustration here. Assuming that you are using US$ as your base currency and using Yahoo's currency converter, Monday's rate was 1$US = .7704E. Today (Thursday) it is 1$US = .7326E. You are only looking at .04E or .07$US over the time period.

samoca: See the responses on your other thread . . . .

And quit freaking -- it'll only upset you for no reason.

Caph, maybe you will do better with a new post. It's probably anybody's guess. If we knew we could make a lot of money in the currency market!

Good point, gomiki! :)

Hi Sam,

>Does anyone know anything about these Travelex cashpassport cards??<

A little.

They charge you for the card.

Then they charge you a high exchange rate to put money into the card.

Then they charge you to take money out of the card.

Unless you are know for certain that the USD will fall significantly farther against the E, why bother?

If you do know for certain, when should I short the dollar?

((I))

Gomiki, the exchange rate is always a crap shoot....just don't think about it and have a wonderful trip. The exchange rate looks awful but your portfolio's probably looking better this week.
When you look at the big picture, the increase would most likely not be enough for you to cancel if that were an option...just have a meal or two in the apartment as opposed to restaurants and you may recoup the increase.

Well, I've been looking at euro to dollar projections going forward for 2009--but of course it's a bet and I'm not really a bettor (except for having way too much money in the stock market last year, argh--not a unique situation unfortunately for all of us). But you'all are right; I've been too in love with the cheap euro and worried it's going to get too much like last year with the euro above 150. And it's true that the European economies are actually in much worse shape than ours. Apparently it's Merkel in Germany that is instrumental in keeping Euro strong right now.

Ira: I can't tell you to short the dollar (wish I had inside info myself).

All this is very fascinating. I recall my first semester lessons in college. "Macroeconomics". We were discussing the Hicks modell, multiplicators and the liquidity trap. The "savings equals investments" formula. Discussing how long the US would "make it" given the savings. Basic things. So long ago it seems.
It seems, nowadys, people ("the US government") don't even see a liquidity trap when they're right in it.

The simple things, 1) people can only invest what other save for a rainy day, 2) you need to save to consume.

So very basic, well the lootings will be over, the best thing for the planet and it people is a collapsing dollar.

Time to celebrate! (Even if it takes a little longer)

I'm actually very happy at least the German government in the end has drawn the right conclusion. That's: "Don't put any more money into that bottomless pit". Wait for the collapse and do what is needed and possible afterwards.

Whoever still has dollars, it would be wise not to have that many in future.

logos, how long until the Euro collapses because the Germans finally get totally pee'd off with the Spanish, Greeks and Irish and withdraw from it?

Sorry gomiki, I just hijacked your thread.

We must wait for the Europeans to retaliate by debasing the euro. Don't hold your breath. The exhaling monkeys running Washington have speeded up the printing presses. It's all a game. The news gets more preposterous by the day.

>long until the Euro collapses
A lot later, unfortunately withdrawing from it by the "problem childs" would make it stronger. But they won't withdraw anyway, just go bancrupt. Your € are "save" for now, at least after the collapse of the USD. 20% inflation in Euroland, I'd bet on it, but better than the alternative.

(Don't read the Daily Telegraph, those reports are paid for by people with certain interests) :D

And Germans won't withdraw. We lost the war, remember :D

hetismij, Please don't be sorry (for the hijack). I think the comments are very interesting! I would love to hear more.

gomiki, you might be interested to know that all this mess was anticipated almost 20 years ago. Given US savings, capital imports and the policies of the administration this (collapse) which is coming was the ONLY possible outcome.

"Common knowledge with the profs at colleague".
It's a huge experiment and politicians act just like expected.

"bubble gum"

sigh...

Gresham's law says bad money drives out good. Same applies to behavior.

Betting on currency fluctuations is a fool's game. Too many variables.

People on this forum often tout getting euros from ATMs when you are in country, as the "exchange rate" charged is a putative commercial rate (wholesale). That "strategy" doesn't work so well when the euro is rising against the dollar. I bought euros last week to use two weeks from now. Who knows whether that move will be a good "investment," though I have them in hand and don't need to ask a machine for mine. And, I can purchase the services of tax dodgers at a significant discout with my cash.

On the other hand- Your going to Paris! How many times have you gone to Europe when the dollar was strong. It all evens out in the end.
Enjoy.

Today the dollar has moved to $1.35 for euros. I go April 22 to Rome. All of my hotels and budgeting were based on $1.25-1.30 range. I also have another trip in October, a Viking River cruise. I might not have booked it if I thought he prices were going to become so much more expensive for everything associated with this trip. Just when I thought it was safe and affordable to travel back to Europe...Timothy Geithner needs to be fired.

Susie,

Things are crazy right now. By October we could be 1.60 or 1.10, my guess is we will be in the 1.20s by summer

For Canadians it is between 1.60 and 1.65 so be thankful! :)

t2l2..Yikes!

travel2live,

I think Canadians should be thankful anyone accepts their currency.

Geithner, the US Secretary of the Treasury, may deserve to be fired, but not because some don't like the current exchange rate, i.e., the price of the euro in dollars, which shouldn't be tinkered with (fixed) to make travel to europe more affordable.

That price reflects many years of meddling by politicians who buy votes instead of following sound economic policies, and the collective view of the wisdom of the economic initiatives of the new administration.

If you want certainty in your travel plans buy your currency today. You will know the price, though you may suffer buyer's remorse if the price of a euro falls before you use your supply. And, holding euros has a cost as well: the opportunity cost of not using the money elsewhere (interest foregone), along with the risk that the exchange rate may move unfavorably against your "bet."

Enjoy Paris.

Bon voyage!

Follow the DAVE policy of currency conversion.

If I am planning a trip to Europe, the dollar exchange rate will be very good.

If I am leaving for Europe, it will be very bad.

Once I leave Europe, the rate will return to good for the dollar.

For a small fee, I'll tell you what I am doing. The fee will vary as to what I may be considering at that moment in time. Normal fee rate will be 15% of your vacation cost. Please forward in pesos.

:-)

dave

Hey Dave,

I don't need to hire you, as the same thing happens to me. :)

The one time I bought foreign currency, expecting the usual Summertime fall in the USD, it kept rising.

((I))

Last July, when gas was $4.00 a gallon, my husband and I flew to Denver, packed up our daughter's things and put them in a rented Penske truck and a Jeep, and drove out across Wyoming, Nevada and Utah (all very big states) to California. Gas has never been that high before or since.

We then flew to Scotland and spent two weeks exchanging two dollars for every pound.

When we got home, we pre-ordered our heating oil for the year. I won't tell you how much we paid.

At some point this fall, I figured out how much money we would have saved if we had moved our daughter in September, flown to Scotland in November, and forgotten to send in our oil prepayment (which is what we did the year before, when prices were rising).

Forget Dave and Ira; I'll tell you what I'm planning and you can send your money to me.

Lots of people are figuring out that they should have forgotten to buy stocks in their 401k and just take the easy 50% match