Bombings...again!
 

We've put half down for our (2 adults, 2 kids) early June trip to Egypt. Now after three bombings within a month, I'm getting cold feet. Does anyone have any comments? Should we just cut our losses and abort? Are we crazy to still consider going?

No, you are not crazy -- just temporarily rattled.

See our post on the other report re bombings in Cairo. Never felt safer abroad. Would go back any time you wish to pick up the tab. It's a wonderful country, a great city, and the people are simply marvelous.

I agree with USNR. I have friends living in Cairo and if I hear anything from them (pro or con), I'll post it. You are facing a lot of dangers in the US you never think about. Because these things are played up in the press, they are magnified. If we published every mugging or homicide in Chicago like that, the streets would be empty. Best advice is to stay calm, read the reports and use common sense. Egypt is a wonderful country, and a visit there is a trip you will remember all your life.

Pick a major US city and read the crime log - I bet more people are killed in any of them than have been killed in Cairo during the same time period.

You are not crazy to go - but your friends and family will tell you that you are.

Thanks for your comments. I came across the thread from Spygirl who seems confident about her information. Since I don't have to pay the balance until we actually get to Egypt, I might just sit and wait and see what happens over the next month...

Dear farflung: We are also planning to visit Egypt this year. I don't know if you have purchased trip insurance with terrorism coverage, but this is somthing you might want to look into. It will allow you a full refund (beforehand) and immediate return home if your trip has to be interrupted due to terrorist activity. This might give you additional peace of mind. We took the policy offered by our tour company, but you can do a search via insuremytrip, which will compare policies and coverage.

That is a very good point, our insurance covers a full refund if there is a terrorist attack within 30 days of your trip departure. I got the policy by comparing several on insuremytrip.com
This gives us the added peace of mind. But pending something really serious.. **knock on wood.. we still plan on going in September.

Thanks for tips on insurance - I hadn't thought of checking my policy. Unfortunately, the policy I have specifically states it does not cover terrorist acts. I'll look into possibly getting another just for this trip if it's not too late...

Hello

I agree with all. Yes you might face a lot of dangers in anywhere, and if you got worried you will not travel anywhere as this happen now in each place in the world, make sure about your travel insurance this is really the good point

Egypt is a great place to visit

Pamela

farflung- I think I'm one of the few people on the board who doesn't think you're crazy for cutting your losses and aborting your trip (I'm not saying you should do that, only that it makes sense to question the situation). I'm taking my son (will be 10 when we go) on safari next year. Yes, I realize there are dangers, but believe it to be a relatively safe trip.

Egypt is iffy in my opinion. Some have argued that it is more dangerous in many US cities or driving in a car. However, not all violence and crimes are the same. I live in Washington, DC. Believe me, we have PLENTY of crime, but I avoid bad areas, and try to excercise as much caution as possible in parking garages, etc. We're not talking about normal crime in Egypt, we're talking about violence aimed at tourists. It's not like you're going to go on a trip and avoid the big tourist sights. Of course, the odds are you won't get hurt, but when you're travelling with kids, do you really want to take the risk? Only you can make that decision for you and your family. Good luck in your decision!

No one ever said it wasn't, Pamela, but you have to make travel plans to exotic places with a healthy measure of common sense (well, one hopes!) and above all, knowledge of current events in the area in question, which clearly does NOT mean ignoring the reality of the situation.

And the reality of the situation right now in Cairo is that it is risky for tourists, tourists' ability to move about will be severely curtailed, with many more police and security services in tow than ever before. You have to weigh whether this is in fact the kind of travel experience you want at the moment- personally, it most assuredly would not be for me, but each traveler must make his/her own decision in this regard.

And no, you're quite wrong on the "this can happen anywhere" scenario. These repeated (emphasize repeated) attacks against tourists and tourist centers simply are NOT happening everywhere, only in a few places.

I missed being blown up at the Egyptian museum several years ago by a week. I missed being shot at Hatchepsut's temple in Luxor by two days. I've ridden through the heart of Islamic militant country to visit Dandara and Abydos and nothing has ever happened to me.

Sure there have been terrorist attacks aimed at tourists, who else do they aim them at? It is sad that a few people have died; however, the few who have died represent the tiniest fraction a one percent of all the tourists visiting Egypt.

There is always a risk wherever you go. I've been in London when the IRA was bombing tube stations. I've been in Paris when militants were bombing the RER. If you want to be completely safe, buy a used missile silo and move in; make sure it still has the bomb proof concrete lid.

Seriously, nobody knows if there are extraordinary risks right now. Keep yourself informed of what is going on and then make a decision that you are comfortable with. Nothing anybody here, including me, says makes any difference. You need to be comfortable with whatever risk there may be. If you go, you'll have a great time; the odds against anything bad happening to you other than upset stomach or paying too much for souveniers is so small as to be insignificant.

At what point does a country get a travel warning posted on the Dept. of states' website? How many people have to get injured or killed before a country makes the list? As of today, Egypt is not listed on the travel warnings website (http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_p...w/tw_1764.html). I'm sure it's the kiss of death for a country's travel industry to be on that list so there's probably a lot of politics on who gets listed.

No answer to what criteria must be met to get posated on Dept. of State list, but some insurance policies cover only if country to which you are travelling or passing thru is on that list (again, check your policy). Ours had that restriction - said nothing about "terrorist activity" - wonder how they would determine if something was terrorist or just an explosion - realizing that no matter what the cause, if could harm you.

May I ammend my prior comments about whether or not to travel to Egypt. We all have different levels of tolerance for any number of things when we travel. They are just different - not right or wrong. So if you would spend your whole trip worrying excessively about terrorism, flying, crime, the water, losing luggage - or whatever your own personal anxiety trigger point may be - then you probably would not have a good time and would need to revise your plans.

I will feel forever blessed that we had the opportunity to visit Egypt 5 1/2 months before 9/11.

I am curious, was there any such warning about travel to Spain after the Madrid incident?
Also is Israel on that list or was it ever on that list?

JamesA -

It's called politics. Or else CYA!

Ah!

James,
If there is ANY credible threat in a country the state department issues a travel advisory - unless there is a good reason not to ... See Sandi's answer.

Egypt used to be on the list but isn't anymore. I went when it was on the list and was totally safe; I went when it was off the list and was totally safe. Frankly, I could care less what the state department says, unbiased news reports are what matters. Unfortunately, you don't find many of those here. BBC World News is not bad as an alternative to the bias you find in the US.

I just remembered something.. when I lived in San Pedro ('91-'92).. there was a gang of youth's targeting tourists, they gunned down several at a popular seaside village and some poor German couple in front of an ATM machine. I don't remember the state department issuing a warning not to visit San Pedro CA...

The State Dept. has issued a Public Announcement on travel to Egypt as of today, May 3d, effective through August 2005. The wording of the Announcement warns Americans to stay away from crowds or places where there are crowds (like Khan al-Khalili bazaar). Egypt is a close ally of the US, and a staunch foe of terrorism, it is unlikely State will issue a Travel Warning at this point, because too many USG personnel need to conduct official business in that country, and when a Travel Warning is issued, no USG personnel are permitted to travel there except under very special circumstances. That is not to say, however, that a TW will never be issued, it depends on what happens in the next few months. The PA is here:

travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_egypt.html

And rfb-sorry, but I don't think you're any expert on the production and dissemination of Travel Warnings. I might add, if a Travel Warning was only a "CYA" move, as Sandi suggests, and you agree, then why aren't all the countries in the Middle East and particularly some of those in Southeast Asia, such as Laos, under a Travel Warning? The reasons are many, but it is centered on extent of the threat to citizens of this country. The Public Announcement today all but says that people should rethink their travel plans, because if you can't get out as a tourist and enjoy your trip, if you are to avoid public places such as the Bazaar, then what's the point of spending all that money when you're going to have your movements limited and feel under siege with the presence of an extraordinary phalanx of Egyptian security whereever you go? And I guezz it puzzles me no end: is there some problem in waiting it out? I guess I don't comprehend the overly-defiant attitude about waiting until the situation has stabilized to make travel plans to this region. It might well save your life, bbecause Egypt simply is NOT safe rright now, period, end of story.

Hmmm... I'd rather go to Egypt than Iraq, these days.

A Public Announcement is less strict than a Travel Warning. If you go to the State department's Travel warning page referenced in a previous post, you will see that, among other places, Israel, the Philipines, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe are all listed. I think that State is far too liberal with their travel warnings, but even under their rules Egypt doesn't warrant a Travel Warning.

Spygirl, you simply aren't correct about a travel warning not being issued because a country is a friend of the US or because it prevents USG personnel from travelling to a place except under special circumstances. I'm a USG employee and my friends and fellow USG employees are scattered all over countries with extant travel warnings. The only thing you have to do to travel someplace is have a duty requirement or to indicate that you have read about and are aware of the security situation if you want to vacation there.

The bottom line for egypt is still that the attaks there seem to be isolated instances and the threat level still seems minimal. I don't think it currently warrants being avoided. If something else happens in the near term, then I would reconsider.

Spygirl,

This is a forum in which open disccussion can be enjoyed by all. Needless to say this includes your views.

With that said if you end a mail on the subject of visiting Egypt with the line "It might well save your life, because Egypt simply is NOT safe rright now, period, end of story" in effect you have made up your mind that you are correct and are not into even debating the issue. The tone of your mails throughout this thread have been as such and there is no doubt about the fact that there are Fodroites who disagree with you. You in turn dont even bother to give them an ear. With that said your above quoted line make me wonder why you even need to write to this forum and why you dont simply just write your mails to yourself. In simple words if you have made up your mind beforehand that you are correct and are not even prepared to listen to reason why even bother to write. Whatever you do give me the hogwash that you will save a life because in effect as you will supposedly do this so you will also divert somebody from having great holiday using non substantive evidence to promote what you are saying about safety in Egypt as a tourist.

All I camn say is that it has been a long time since I have heard such an autocratic voice on this Fodors chatboard and for the sake of this remaining a democratic board I will tolerate the mails however I dont welcome the manner in which the content is presented at all.

Hope this make you think about what is going on as opposed to just responding blindly without considering the thoughts that others present on the subject.

Just my twopence worth.

Very proudly part of the wonderful ((r)) nation of South Africa

Apparently the US State Dept agrees with Spygirl..it issued a travel warning today..NPR radio said they said to "avoid tourist areas".

Rubytwo, State issued a Public Announcement to be careful in Egypt, not a Travel Warning to avoid the country. Confusion between the two is common, but the Public Announcement is a much less stringent statement.

Scout: I was listening to NPR, but I should have checked the Dept of State site before posting. The public notice says that US travelers should avoid tourist areas or crowds in Cairo. Thanks for the info...I didn't realize there were two kinds of postings from the State Dept.

Scout: you did not read my post correctly, I was not linking the fact that Egypt is a friend of the US necessarily to the issuance of a Travel Warning (but I am very definitely not saying that it isn't one of the factors either). And I don't think you can say with certainty that Egypt does not "warrant" a Travel Warning in this instance-it could yet come about.

In this case, I'm reasonably sure that State WON'T issue a TW for Egypt, for a number of different reasons-factors considered are that they are a staunch foe of terrorism, and they are heavily dependent on tourism-this issue has come up before between the two countries. There have been high level discussions between diplomats on this very issue in the past, where Egypt has argued very forcefully against the issuance of a TW.

But this Public Announcement is about as stringent a warning as State will issue under the circumstances-when the Announcement says to avoid all crowds and public places-how is that substantively different that warning against travel to the country? It really isn't because the whole purpose of going to Egypt is to get out in the bazaars and other public areas isn't it? It's substantively little different from the TW on Indonesia.

And as far as a TW and USG personnel, we're not talking about vacationing-we're talking about official duty requirements-USG personnel are not authorized to go to countries with TWs in effect except under special circumstances. Indonesia restricts the movement of USG personnel in that country, as it is under a continued TW.
As far as there being USG scattered around countries where TW's are in effect-obviously there are-USG personnel are assigned to embassies under critical mission assignments-but that's not what I was referring to.

I would say, in this instance, that the issuance of this Public Announcement on Egypt is substantively the equivalent of a Travel Warning because it is advising against free movement in the country-that's about as much of a "Warning" as a traveler can get.

My husband and I have cancelled our trip to Egypt due to the bombings. I read that most of you think this is silly.

We have three school age children. If on the off chance something does happen, will they think it was worth it? Will they think their parents were "cool"? Will they they say, "hey no problem that I have to finish growing up without a mom or dad?". I know that life itself means taking risks, however, you have to be nuts to compare the risk of going to a country where terrorists are targeting tourists and tourist attractions this day and age, with an American city!!!

I think there is no easy answer to this question. I think it depends on your individual situation.

It is after all...only another vacation!

wkcape. I don't think you are silly at all. You weighed the risks and felt they were greater than you wished to risk. If my children were still at home, I wouldn't risk it either.

wkcape, I respect your decision, you have to make it based upon your comfort level with travel to a given area, just as we all do.

Spygirl, we seem to see things differently, but that's life. I admire your ability to provide cogent arguments even when I disagree with them. (I also read back through your posts and found one from a year ago when you were singing the praises of Egypt, so you obviously aren't just a Chicken Little)

I'm done with this topic until something else happens. I want to get back to following Rocco's analysis of Zambian Safari camps!

No one thinks you are silly at all! Particularly with having small children. The only caveat to that is, I don't like to be lambasted for having weighed the risks and then decided to take our trip. It is all personal choice here. Everyone has their own comfort level.. my husband and I had one of the finest vacations of our life in Kenya, when they had a state department warning not to go there.. but then, if we had children at home we may not have felt that the threat was worth the benefit.. everyone is different.

As I said in the thread that's been deleted, my feeling about acceptable risk is very different if my children are along.

Based on the current situation I wouldn't take my children to Egypt. However, I would go by myself or with my wife.

We all have different comfort levels and tolerance for risk.

Just to set the record straight, I also work for the U. S. Government and am as well qualified to comment on travel warnings as anybody else.

The state department only issues travel warnings when there is a credible threat. That does not mean that the area is unsafe; it means that they, in the event of a disaster, must be able to show that they warned people not to go. Anybody who believes otherwise simply doesn't understand how government bureaucracy works.

Call me cycnical if you will but the failure of the State Department to issue a travel warning means that they do not consider the threat serious although they would like to hedge their bets just a little by telling people to avoid croweded places.
If you check the State Department website you will notice that on 8 March 2005 they issued a public announcement urging "Worldwide Caution". I guess this means we should all stay home.

The time to become concerned is when they tell everybody to get out of the country.

wkcape - Not silly at all. You and others will make like decisions based on your personal situation. If I had to consider young children, my decision would more then likely be the same. Time enough to rebook Egypt or any other destination at another time when your comfort level allows you to.

We, in turn, after 9/11 couldn't wait to get on a plane to South Africa, except we weren't scheduled to leave for another two months. Whereas, most Americans, specifically, didn't want to leave home and wanted to be with family. It's all understandable.

And if we weren't in such a rush to leave after 9/11, we were just as willing to get going on our trip to Kenya and Tanzania after the Embassy bombings in '98... we were ready to leave the next day, but had to wait a month.

As to "avoiding crowds" whether a warning or just simple advice - that's a standard for travel anywhere; you wouldn't have caught me in the crowds at the Popes funeral. We all have to decide what's best for our particular situations.

"avoiding crowds" is a bit difficult in a city like Cairo...

I agree that if you still have time to make a decision, monitor the news coming from Egypt... I read news about anti government demonstrations in Cairo, which are organized by Islamic opposition elements. This is NOT good news, and may show the weaking of Mubarak's powers.

In a dictatorial country like Egypt, when thousands of people dare to go out in public against their government --- it usually marks trouble coming...

Well I've not been following this thread lately either, because I actually DO deal with issues the like of which we are discussing on this thread, and so have to take a break from it every once and awhile!

rfb-unless you actually work in law enforcement and intelligence matters for the USG, you have no better knowledge about the issuance of Travel Warnings than anyone else-and indeed, I should say that the issuance of a Travel Warning is most assuredly NOT just based on a "credible threat" -it has to do with many factors, specific and credible threats being among the factors-(but that, in and of itself, doesn't say much).

Primarily, it is a risk analysis equation: i.e., does the country in question have the ability to counter the terrorist threat posed to US citizens? What is the risk to US citizens? If the country in question doesn't have a handle on the situation, if it is unable or unwilling to counter the threat, then these types of factors will likely lead to the issuance of a Travel Warning.

Also, contrary to what you've posted, a Travel Warning does NOT have to do with State being able to show that they issued a warning "not to go in the event of a disaster"-where that came from I don't know, but I do know that is the viewpoint of someone who does not understand how such warnings are disseminated and their rationale.

There is no basis for your contention that State "must not consider Egypt to be unsafe, otherwise it would have issued a Travel Warning"-that's sheer speculation on your part, and without foundation-MANY Travel Warnings start out as Public Announcements-with the escalation of a threat, they get upgraded.

As far as Egypt and the PA is concerned, it is perfectly appropriate that State should first issue this as a PA-they need to see what Egypt is going to do to contain the threat, and what, exactly, the threat consists of.

But one thing is for certain-when the PA comes on the heels of repeated deadly attacks against westerners in a matter of weeks, and advises not to go into crowds or other tourist centers-then that is clearly diplomatic speak advising not to go AT THIS TIME, because there is little point in touring a country where, because you'll be in a tour group, you're effectively a moving target, and thus, there will be marked restrictions on your movements within the country (by the Egypt Govt.)

Like I said, it won't kill you to wait it out for the next few months to see whether or not the threat is contained, but it might if you don't. These successive attacks against tourists are NOTHING to take lightly- the first in seven years.

Immediately after the killings in the Khan al Khalili bazaar of April 8, the American Embassy in Cairo issued an immediate warning (BEFORE State issued the worldwide Public Announcement) for Americans to stay away from the Bazaar and other public places. How much more of a warning are you going to get? And is support of the local economy and the idea that "we're not going to let the terrorists win" really going to matter if you've become a victim of an incident?

Farflung-attacks like this against tourists simply are not occuring on this scale anywhere other than Turkey at the moment. Personally, I wouldn't advise anyone, particularly with children, to go to Egypt in June- all the information you need to make such a decision is staring you right in the face.

Well, yesterday I cancelled our flights. The final straw was the massive demonstration/protest in Cairo. When large groups (and it was v. large at 2500!) gather things can really escalate, being in that type of environment is scary. They arrested over 400. If people are already angry, then it doesn’t take much more to really set them off. We’ve stumbled across other “peaceful” protests in France and Spain, it’s really uncomfortable to be around. I just don’t want to put my kids, or us, in that situation. We go on vacation for fun. With all that’s gone on there, the fun is dissipating quickly and being replaced by worry. We were in Cyprus right after 9/11 (in October). They had found several of Bin Laden’s brothers in the north. I did not feel compromised in any way, but it was always in the back of my mind; and that wasn’t even a real threat compared to the tourist poaching that has been going on in Egypt. Chances are nothing would happen to us in Egypt, but with all the baloney that has gone on in Cairo alone, it’s just not worth taking my children into an area that seems to be increasing in volitity. I will get there, just not now. I’m v. disappointed, but I’ll get over it.

It's been very interesting reading everone's view points. Thanks for writing.

Farflung,
Thank you for sharing your actions in addition to your opinions/questions on the situation, since actions speak loudest. I am sorry you had to cancel and hope you can enjoy a rescheduled trip in the future.

Why does not the USG issue travel advisories/warnings/whatever against travel to New York (the bombing this week) or California (4 killed so far this year in 12 incidents) or Washington State (home arson) or Atlanta (court killings) or Minnesota/Wisconsin (mass killings) or ...?

I'm new to this site. Thanks for your input. I've been considering taking a trip into the Sinai at the Taba crossing in early June. As to the persons who started the chain, I went to Egypt 16 years ago and it's a must, but not if you are not going to enjoy it. Re State being political: I reported that I was hijacked and on a bus by four armed men outside Mexico City and the consular officer told me that she had never heard of such a thing, although it was a common event.