mdmnova

I have a really specific question. I can get a flight from newark to venice and naples to newark for $712.00 (Sept 3 to 17th).
My question is: Can I get a better price than this if I wait?

Thanks.

ira

Hi,

The only accurate reponse to your question is "maybe".

That's not a bad price. Will you be more disappointed if the price goes down$50 and you bought the ticket, or if it goes up $50 and you didn't?

rex

What will you kick yourself over - - an up-or-down move of $50? or $250?

I previously posted this on http://www.fodors.com/forums/threads...p;tid=34467708 (in case you want to read the full context of this answer, as posted there) - -

====================

similar to good stock-picking - - think of the downside risk and the upside potential. I think that the probability of $50 up or down is about 60%/40%.

And I assume that the numbers we're talking about are all taxes included.

Far more relevant is the probability of $250 up or down. If you wait a month, I'd say that becomes 20% vs 0%; wait two months, 40% vs 0%, three months 60% vsw 0%.

These are speculative numbers of course - - all except for the 0%. Your fare of $570 will NOT fall to $320 in May, no how, no way

I would buy now.

=======================

Even though May and September have been classically regarded as "shoulder" months, I think that September prices are never as low as May prices.

My plus-or-minus $250 analysis seems equally applicable, though you are still eight months out, so I think you have time to find this rate again, if you NEED to wait (i.e., if you are unsure that you will want to, or be able to take the trip).

I thinmk that your chances of $250 less (i.e., $462) are essentially zero.

If you wait until June 15, I think your chances of having to accept $250 more ($962) are very real.

In both directions, this assumes that you mean including all taxes and fees.

Best wishes,

Rex

rex

Geez, ira - - you and I are becoming the Bobbsey twins on questions like this!

kismetchimera

Take it. it is a great price for sept.

mdmnova

Thanks very much. I've been poking around this site for quite a while now and all info I've gotten is more than great. You two (ira and rex)have been extremely helpful in your info giving.
Thanks again

jsmith

I'm repeating this from another post I made.
------------------------
Not too many years ago (at least, not to me) fares to Europe were based upon peak season, low season and shoulder season and all airlines were the same. Very simple to make a decision and we could go on to other things.

Now we obsess over finding the best fare, the best seat, the best hotel, the best restaurant, the best itinerary and, of course, all must be at the best price.

Parade Magazine of January 4, included in many Sunday newspapers, has an article titled "When It's All Too Much" by Barry Schwartz, a professor of psychology at Swarthmore and is adapted from his book, "The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less".

An excerpt from the article:

"It seems that as we become freer to pursue and do whatever we want, we get less and less happy.

Settle for a choice that is "good enough" rather than searching for the elusive "best". If you want to spend a week in the sun this winter, don't drive yourself crazy searching for the best possible deal on a flight, hotel and rental car. Find a deal that's "good enough", then stop thinking about it."
----------------------------------

Get on with it. The alternative is to be a "shoulda, woulda, coulda" person who is never satisfied.

ira

Hey Rex,

Maybe we should just post a thread and refer to it.

ira

Hi jsmith,

One of the characteristics of people with too much time on their hands is their ability to obssess over trivia. (I would cite academics as a group as the prime example.)

As Parkinson pointed out, "Work expands to fill the time allotted to it".

ira

PS mdnova,

Please don't take these remarks as directed at you.

Sometimes a question just brings up a thread of postings by those of us who have too much time on our hands.

platzman

$712 for open-jaw in Sept on the route you outlined seems like a decent price to me. If you really want to take this trip, I'd book it now. Life's too short to haggle over the difference of $100 one way or another on a trip of this kind.