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GoTravel Sep 1st, 2004 07:32 AM

When Does The National Hurricane Center Change the Updates From Every 3 Hours to Every Hour?
Does anyone know when the National Hurricane Center changes the updates from every 3 hours (8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, 11PM, 2AM, 5AM) to every hour?

I'm wondering how close the storm gets before they do hourly updates. I know I'm glued to about 5 different websites.,, NOAA,, and

Dan Sep 1st, 2004 08:45 AM

I think the only "real" updates (change in track, etc.) are done every 6 hours. The 3 hour updates rarely say much except a position change and MAYBE a slight wind-speed change. I haven't heard of one hour updates. Wow.

hibiscushouse Sep 1st, 2004 09:17 AM

Cautiously, I want to mention that I have been reading more and more that some of the models are bringing this storm onshore far enough south that it would cross the State and then possibly exit near Tampa, and go back out into the GOM.
I say cautiously b/c this storm seems as though it's going to be very difficult to determine it's course, but it just says that a huge coastal area needs to be prepared for this incredible storm.

tully Sep 1st, 2004 09:43 AM

Oh, I'm glad I'm not the only one gotravel! I have suddenly become the hurricane expert at work cause I'm constantly checking various sites - even though I know nothing has changed in the last 20 minutes! I just wish there was a way to predict these things more accurately - they're talking about a hit in like 56 hours but no watches/warnings posted in the US! Not a lot of time to evacuate.

GoTravel Sep 1st, 2004 09:46 AM

I-95 is going to be a nightmare.

I'm almost positive that the National Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center starts sending the hurricane hunters or whatever in every hour for updates.

Jayne11159 Sep 1st, 2004 09:57 AM


I'm sitting here watching the weather and National Hurricane Center sends the next reconnaissance plane out around 5:00 pm, so expect an updated forecast then.

peterboy Sep 1st, 2004 10:03 AM

Yes, it is frustrating. I'm in upstate NY with relatives in Ft. Lauderdale. I'm all over the weather sites and the updates don't seem frequent enough to me either. I think it has more to do with my level of anxiety that the fine services available to us forecast wise. The way things look now, I want to tell them to just go now rather that risk getting caught in traffic.

Besides the obvious size and strength of Frances is the slow forward movement of this monster. 14 to 16 miles per hour. That means that the srtike zone will have to endure hurricane force winds for an entire day. Those winds also extend well out from the eye so the swath of potential destruction will be wide.

This may turn out to be the greatest disaster in Florida's history. It doesn't look like there's much possibility that Frances will turn out to sea. Arrgh!

GoTravel Sep 1st, 2004 10:11 AM

Even though you have flood insurance, the thought of losing your home is sickening.

What if I've forgotten to pack some momento? What if I forget the negatives? What if, what if, what if?

This isn't healthy but it does help having a place to write about the fear.

Judyrem Sep 1st, 2004 10:34 AM

Truly Gotravel, it does help to have receptive listeners in this time of turmoil. I just wish it would SOMETHING that would indicate it's destination. My DH is sitting glued to the Weater Channel and has been manical with plans, and he is driving me crazy with worry :-( Judy

Anonymous Sep 1st, 2004 10:42 AM

Here's a map that simultaneously shows the tracks predicted by various forecasting models, appropriately called the "spaghetti run."

Anonymous Sep 1st, 2004 10:44 AM

Ooops, sorry, just noticed that I posted the same link that hibiscus already posted earlier.

joan Sep 1st, 2004 10:45 AM

Hey Jayne11159, could you list the exact URL for the vipir tracking? When I go to, I see a graphic of Frances with a very wide track. Is this the track you speak of? Also, when I click on "live track" I get an error message. Any help would be appreciated!

peterboy Sep 1st, 2004 10:50 AM

Here's a lesser know site of the US Navy with the most detailed path projection I've seen. Lots of other good info as well:

Jayne11159 Sep 1st, 2004 10:57 AM

peterboy--that's a great site. Thanks for the tip. I keep thinking about all my hurricane supplies that I donated to the Red Cross after Charley and hoping we won't be in a position next week to need them back!

OO Sep 1st, 2004 11:20 AM

Joan, what day are you supposed to be leaving? :-[ I haven't found vipir on their website either, but saw some vipir imagery this morning on the early news.

It's nervewracking that it's so "up in the air", isn't it? None of us were ready to deal with another storm, and you do deal with it, emotionally anyway, no matter were you are within the possible track. It seems as if we've been worrying about hurricanes for at least 3 weeks! Uncle!

Oh, just hit me what post you were talking about on the other thread! No, no, no...everyone but everyone understood, trust me! :)

joan Sep 1st, 2004 12:05 PM

OO, we're supposed to fly out of Tampa 8 am Sat morning...yikes!

To Anonymous: I like the blue track, the one that goes northward over water, never touching land. Hope lives on!

Jayne11159 Sep 1st, 2004 12:19 PM


I cannot find a site with VIPIR other than the company (Baron) that owns it.

You're probably getting an error message because they're getting so many hits right now.

I'm waiting for the 5 pm update. My sister closed down her West Palm Beach office about three hours ago. It was built in 2001 so several of her staff members and their families are using it as a shelter.

OO-I got caught in one of those freak downpours on the Veterans expressway a couple of months ago--it was very frightening. Lightening struck something about 100 yards directly in front of my car and the white flash was blinding. I can also remember trying to get to Apropos during a moderate rain storm and how flooded Dale Mabry was--seems like there are a lot of small flood prone areas in Tampa.

hibiscushouse Sep 1st, 2004 12:36 PM

Bay news 9 is eluding to that turn across the State that I mentioned above. This has the potentialto be a Tampa and Pensacola storm as well. It also could very well effect a little bit south of us (Sanibel et al) as well as the area in the middle of the State that was so damaged by Charley.
I am really anticipating the 5:00 recon plane updates.
I can't imagine a worse case scenario for our State. Two major hurricanes in one month, with three landfalls, and a swath of damage across the State that will be huge.

buckeyemom Sep 1st, 2004 12:52 PM

My dh and I have been following the storms's track also as we have family and friends in your state. I am nervous for everyone down there, I can't begin to imagine what you all are going through. Know that there are alot of us in the Buckeye State and the nation, praying for you and hoping for the best. Keep safe! @};-

Jayne11159 Sep 1st, 2004 01:09 PM

Well, at the 5 pm update the VIPIR model indicates that Frances will move a little east of the current track that the National Hurricane Center is forecasting. It would be great if it went east period. The caveat, as with all models, is it's accuracy is not reliable this far out. They have already decided to close Polk county schools since they were hit so hard with Charley.

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