risk it and go ahead with Florida vacation? help!
 

We are suppose to leave in the morning for Siesta Key. This tropical storm Isaac is looking like it will be a cat 1 hurricane by Tuesday and, right now, our vacation spot is right in the way. We have travel insurance but it doesn't help us unless the airline cancels our flight (which they won't because we still have 2 days until it hits Florida.) So we can go, and hope that the storm redirects, or stay and lose a lot of money.
I hate to not go and then Siesta Key only have a day or two of rain BUT I also hate to go and be holed up with a 3 year old all week unable to play on the beach. So here are my questions.... if the storm does pass Florida any ideas on how much rain SK might still get? Will the ocean be much rougher than usual even if the storm doesn't hit us? How quickly would it all be over? Any other advice?

These things are SO unpredictable.
But I can tell you this:
1)yes, regardless the Gulf (don't call it an ocean in front of locals) will be rougher than usual.
2)there will probably be lots of rain as this is a huge storm. If it remains slow moving, even if the center is miles and miles off to the west, there still may be a couple days of solid rain.
3)Having lived in SW Florida for over 35 years, I can tell you that far more predicted storms have not dramatically affected us than have.

I can't answer "should you go" -- no one can. But let's be honest -- even without a hurricane, there is always in late summer a lot of chance of lots of rain. Surely you were aware of that when you booked for this week? So is it really that much difference now that they are talking about a category 1 hurricane possibly going by?

it is possible for us to go the following week and we wouldn't lose as much money but if the water is still going to be rough from the storm I would rather wait...

I had to evacuate once. No fun. Can't imagine what it would have been like with a child. I would cancel.

NeoPatrick, Yes, I knew the risk of rain this time of year but I was thinking it would be more like a hour a day or so... not all day everyday. Do you think the Gulf (thanks for the tip) will be calmer the following week?

Well, yes, almost definitely. And normally once a huge storm like that has passed, within a day or two, it turns absolutely clear and beautiful for several days.

Now that I see you have the option of delaying for a week, yes, I'd definitely go for that.

Besides, you KNOW it's going to be nicer the following week -- all that hot air in nearby Tampa will be gone!!! LOL

Tropical storms/hurricanes are very unpredictable. Since yesterday, the experts have moved the projected path a bit further to the west.

I wouldn't cancel, at least not yet.

Even with a three year old, there's a lot to do in that part of Florida. If you're leaving tomorrow, you should have at least a day of beach weather before the storm arrives.

Now, if it appears to be strengthening a lot over today, then, I'd rethink.

I've only been here (in Tampa) for 2.5 years. During that time, there have been storms like NeoPatrick mentions, that were predicted but never really happened. Then again, Debby was impressive this spring. Well, not really "impressive". We never had that huge, amazed feeling at the power of nature or anything like that. It just rained and rained and rained and rained. Started on Friday, I think, and there was one sunny, windy afternoon when we could go out and take pictures of all the flooding. Then we were back inside for a couple days and I was GLAD for my kid's yoga class on Tues. After it was all over, kiddo went out and picked up fallen limbs for neighbors for cash. We've had one other memorable storm. That one did happen pretty much all in one day, with lots of thunder and seemed scarier.

The category I that they're talking about is unlikely, from what I can tell, to damage the kinds of structures tourists stay in. If you want to come and see what's happening and have a sense of adventure, and your 3-yr-old is flexible, then I'd say come on down. I remember a childhood vacation that had a hurricane in the middle of it. Surf was too big to swim in afterwards, but we had fun walking the beach, and part of an old wooden boat was uncovered. We loved it! On the safer side of a hurricane vaca, Tampa is an hour from Sarasota and has a great children's museum (Glazer's); a trip there and to a downtown restaurant could easily be one day for you all (after the GOP leaves). Tampa and Sarasota have good aquariums. I'm sure you could find similar fun stuff to do with your kiddo closer to where you're staying.

OTOH, if you don't want to do anything but put your toes in the sand and soak up sun, and would be irritated at having to find anything else to do, then you might want to reconsider.

I would wait to see if it really will blow through quickly and if not reschedule for that following week. We were scheduled to be on vacation for a week in Flordia when Debby hit this year. Luckily for us we drove and after 2 days of rain decided to abandon that vacation and head north to a dry vacation spot. It turned out our whole week would have been lost to the bad weather. I too had only anticipated a daily rain shower when I planned my trip. Good luck & I hope it works out for you!

I'm unclear about the several posts about waiting to see what happens. You do realize that the plane is leaving in less than 24 hours? There may be a little better idea by then of what will happen, but not much.

we either go in the morning and lose no money or leave a week later and lose our airfare.... as of now it looks like we are going to try to go. I really am hoping for a least a couple days of sunny beach time. There are lots of things to do in the area so that will help.

Right now the weather's still beautiful. You know that will change, so head straight to the beach when you get here!

Besides extra indoor toys, one other thing you might do to prepare is get a rental car that will do well if you have to drive through water, one where the engine is higher up.

Hope you have a great trip!

The latest track has it once again further to the west. I'd be on the plane. And, yes, I realize we're talking less than 24 hours from now. The hurricane site updates every three hours....

The annual budget for the National Weather Service is over $700 million. They are giving this hurricane lots of attention. You can get their predictions at Weather.com and Accuweather.com. I suggest you put in Sarasota. They are predicting rain and thunderstorms both before and after the nominal date for the hurricane.

Will you really lose the airline ticket money if you cancel? Last summer we bought non refundable tickets on AA and couldn't go, but we still had the tickets and were able to use them the following fall for an entirely different itinerary on the same airline. Of course we had to pay a penalty for the rebooking.

JeanH -- which site are you using?

"Of course we had to pay a penalty for the rebooking."

The last time I tried to change an American airline ticket which I had paid $ 127 for (one way), the cost to change it was $150. And that was only if I stuck to the same itinerary, but just changed dates! Cheaper to throw it away and buy a new one!

I use a couple of sites.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The interactive part of the NHC site clearly shows a shift to the west. Yesterday it looked like it was going to come right across the Keys, between Marathon and Key West.

Then, it looked like it would be right over Key West. Today it's west of Key West, and seems a bit further west with every update.

If you do wait a bit longer to reschedule, you might want the airlines more sympathetic....

Yes, we would lose more than 500 bucks in airfare if we try to change the trip dates....

thanks for the sites JeanH... i keep checking them hoping for a change...