Does anyone win in Las Vegas?
 

I am curious how many of you that goes to las Vegas actually win? I read somewhere that 80% of people lose and most are repeat business.

The casino industry in this country wouldn't be increasing its locations if it wasn't a money-making business. <BR><BR>Most people will lose. Can't quote you the odds, but everything is geared towards driving the real profits, the gaming. The low-priced buffets, the comps, the entertainment, the room rates and package specials are all designed with one goal - get you onto a table or machine.

Actually, for every bet placed, someone wins. Unfortunately for me and others, it is usually the house.

A winning story~<BR>while waiting for a rental car to be delivered at the Rio, I was bored,so asked my husband for $20-to put in the slot machine I was sitting in front of-he gave me a one hundred dollar bill,I said I would only play $20.00 of it.On the twelfth dollar played, I won the Progressive jackpot, $1,170.00~~~~~that was the way the rest of the trip was, we won every time we played, at every casino! It hasn't happened like that since,but we did win, a lot, and it was our first time there.We have played in casinos in other countries, and done ok at times,but not like this~needless to say-we go to Las Vegas a lot now:) and we still win more than we lose.

People like "gambler too" are the bread and butter of the casinos, and their best advertisement.<BR><BR>They are people who win every once in awhile, and forget about the losses.<BR>In their own biased retrospective views, they feel like they're "about even or a little ahead" over the long run.<BR><BR>Statistics time: the odds of being "ahead" after, say, fifteen trips to a casino which involved many hours of play each time are: on the order of 1 in 10,000.<BR><BR>Anyone who tells you they're ahead over the long run is either lying, chooses to ignore their actual losses (denial), or is that one in 10,000.<BR><BR>(BTW, the winners are out there. I know a Publisher's Clearinghouse $10 million winner. But these people are obviously rare).

Gee "Reality"-one would think that you knew us or something, making these statements of fact when IN FACT you know nothing about us,our luck at gambling,our winnings,other than what I told,quoting statistics that you have made up-If you don't win when gambling, that is probably usual, my story was of a lucky trip,in that we won all the time.Usually we only win about half the time, but we have always come home with more than we left with...I guess,as much as you would hate to admit it, some of us are winners and then some of you are losers.

I went to LV last summer.Played the blackjack tables at Ballys and won most of the night.Only time I lost was when I played a slot machine, so I went back to the tables and did well.So, Reality,how much have you lost? Sound a little bitter.

I don't count the losings,I take a certain amount that I can lose and that is all.The nice thing is when I leave with more money than I came with.But to me, Las Vegas is fun, I don't go with the goal of bringing home money,just having fun and if I win-that is fun,but losing doesn't change anything.The people that take it too seriously are the ones with gambling problems..and that isn't fun!

Reality Bites really seems to be pissed about something here~ Someone posts a question asking if anyone actually wins, and when someone answers,Reality bites them for their answer! I knew a guy who went to Vegas for the first time when he got out of college, he and some buddies.Played Craps all night at Ceasars, won enough to pay his Dad back for college tuition! So I for one ,know that some people do win. Jake

There are two types of gamblers: those that view gambling as a little harmless entertainment, and those that "try to win".<BR>The ones who play a little here and there for fun and view any losses as an entertainment expense have the right idea about gambling.<BR><BR>I can flatly state that people who go to casinos with the main goal of trying to win money are fools. Say whatever you want to, but the numbers back me up any way you want to slice them and dice them.<BR>One of the biggest fallacies among the "trying to win" gamblers is that if they're "lucky enough" they can beat the house over the long haul.<BR>Note: the key is the 'over the long haul' part. Anyone can win a hand, win for an hour, win for a night, win for three days.<BR>Can anyone beat the house (as I stated above) over the long haul?? Absolutely not, unless you're that one in many thousand.<BR><BR>The reason I al ways respond to these gambling questions (as I have many times in the past) is because it always amazes me, genuinely amazes me, how foolish people are who go to casinos with the intent of coming home richer.<BR>The problem is that if you are deluded enough to believe you can do it once, you'll go back again and agian.<BR>AND THAT'S where the casino always gets you. The long haul.<BR><BR>Many people just can't grasp that concept for some reason. And the casinos would be out of business for lack of business if it weren't for them. <BR><BR>(And BTW "Vegas", I am, and always have been, a non-gambler. I also have an extensive background in statistics...which is why I could never become a gambler).

I was twelve years old when my math teacher used gambling odds to explain the laws of probability. I was SHOCKED that the casinos set the returns so that, over the long haul (of many visitors and many attempts at winning), they would always end up winning. (I was pretty naive at age twelve, 25 years ago). Since learning that I would be better off putting my money in the stock market than into a casino, I've had absolutely no desire whatsoever to gamble, and never have. So I have no axe to grind against casinos whatsoever. My comments are simply reciting the laws of probability.<BR><BR>Simply put, over time, the casinos will always win. There's no question but that SOME people will win over a short period of time (and that period may indeed last years). But most people will lose. Indeed, there's no LEGAL way you can escape the odds; eventually, you will lose more money than you win.<BR><BR>Nobody is a "winner" as opposed to a "loser" (well, the casino owners are ALWAYS the winners), there are simply people for whom the laws of probability have not fully taken effect. Some of them have, over a short term, won more money than the odds would seem to dictate; others have lost more. Over the long haul, all of us will lose at exactly the same rate (given that we play the same games with the same strategy with the same odds). We can reduce the rate we lose our money by adopting certain strategies, but we can't change the fact that, over time, we will lose. Any casino that set itself up such that, over the long haul, its customers would win more than they would lose would be out of business VERY rapidly.

I have been going to Vegas for 20 years, once a month..and I come home ahead about 75% of the time. I only play blackjack. Its the only game, besides poker, that can be "beat"..ALL the others including craps will grind you down over the long haul.Learn to count, learn how to hide the fact that you are a counter, and know when to walk away is the key.<BR>

What's this, Paul, a voice of reason here among the noise?<BR>Where are all those supernaturally gifted, multiple lottery winning, rose colored glass wearing critics from above?

You say that you have won 75% of the time, but did not mention dollar amounts. I figure beacause you may have won from lets say a buck to a thousand on those trips. But on the 25% of the trips you have lost I will "bet" that you have lost from 1k to 10k, so when all is said and done, and when you add your winnings to your losses, overall you are in the hole.

From the wizardofodds.com site (where they don't 'sell' anything except gambling facts).<BR><BR><BR>1. Expect to lose.<BR>The odds almost always favor the casino. If you won't be happy if you lose then you shouldn't play at all.<BR><BR><BR>2. Don't rely on hunches. Always make the mathematically best decision. <BR>I have met numerous other players who disagree with me on this one, and they are all wrong. On the players side is the unlimited use of ESP and other psychic powers. The casinos have the mathematical odds on their side. Who always wins in the long run?<BR><BR><BR>3. Although you will lose in the long run your money will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. <BR>Regardless of how good you are your bankroll will make large swings in the short run. You should expect this. Following correct strategy is more beneficial to long term play.<BR><BR><BR>4. In general the harder a game is to understand the smaller the house edge is if you play it correctly. <BR>Your best bets are the more complicated games of blackjack, craps, baccarat, and video poker, assuming you play them wisely. Your worst bets are the simple games of pure chance like keno, roulette, and the wheel of fortune.<BR><BR><BR>5. Don't gamble with anything but entertainment money.<BR>The motive for gambling should be entertainment. So bet enough to make it interesting but not so much that it would hurt if you lost. <BR><BR><BR>6. Don't hedge your bets.<BR>For example don't take insurance in blackjack and never make the any 7 or any craps bet in craps. In gambling, as in life, it makes good business sense to not insure risks you can cope with yourself. If you are afraid to lose then you are betting too much to begin with.<BR><BR><BR>7. There is no system that can beat a game of pure chance. <BR>There are plenty of charlatans promising systems that can beat games of luck like roulette, craps, and even the lottery. Most systems trade a lot of small wins for a few huge losses. In the long run it is impossible to beat the house at games of chance only.<BR><BR><BR>8. It pays to shop around for the best possible playing conditions.<BR>In many games, especially blackjack and video poker rules can vary from one casino to another and one state to another. Know what rules are favorable to the player and to seek them out. <BR><BR><BR>9. Avoid the side bets and gimmicks.<BR>Good examples of side bets to ignore are those in Caribbean stud poker and let it ride. Yes, I know everyone else makes these bets but mathematically the house edge is huge. I have never seen a side bet that was a better bet than the game it was on. Gimmicks, like crapsless craps and commission free baccarat, have a higher house edge than normal rules in every example I have seen. When the casinos offer a change in a rule to your advantage you can be sure they changed another rule that is to their advantage, and that they are taking more than they are giving up. <BR><BR><BR>10. Have fun.<BR>Don't forget that gambling is supposed to be a recreational activity. Like many things, what is enjoyable in moderation can be disastrous in excess. If you lose the ability to walk away from the table or machine at will then you shouldn't play at all<BR>

UCantWin&gt; your right, I didnt mention $$ amounts, but lets just say your a little "off"..The question was "how many of you that goes to Las Vegas actually win". I was just answering his question. BTW its more like 97% of people loose, but that's another story.<BR> Again, you HAVE to know when to walk away. Never chase your loses when your cold, but when your hot, show no fear!!!

Stan: see #2 just above.<BR>There is no way anyone can overcome the sheer grinding of odds with hunches or 'hot streaks' or anything else.<BR>It's all RANDOM! You just perceive that you're 'doing the right thing'.<BR>You can't control the outcomes and the outcomes are RANDOM.<BR>There's no PATTERN.<BR>It only seems that way.<BR><BR>If you throw a coin 6 times in a row and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds of a 7th head? That's right. 50-50.<BR>If you win 7 hands of BJ in a row what are the odds you'll win the 8th? That's right. Same as the odds of winning the first or second or third hand.

Reality&gt; its clear you don't understand the game of blackjack..unlike craps and roulette, it is NOT random. what cards are played have a direct impact on your "odds" of winning the next hand.<BR> Your odds change from hand to hand..<BR> This is why if you learn to count, you can beat the house at their own game, Bet small when its to their advantage bet big when its to your advantage.<BR> I should mention you need a big enough bankroll to weather the cold spells, but in the long run, you do win.

Gambler asks how many of you actually win....a couple of people tell winning stories.Then the rest of you-namely one who Never gambles, answers!and not the question but by attacking the ones who gamble-for gambling!When someone will post a question ,people will not want to answer for fear of attack by unhappy posters waiting to spout "facts" and "statistics"...I'd say this post is dead-just good for the ones to gather and commiserate together about how they cannot win....

Blackjack expert: Even with expert counting your odds are still at best 50/50. Not counting but using all the best skills of the basic stategy your odds are about 47%, the same as a non thinking bet in Craps (dont pass line).

I have extensive experience in stats and in gambling. Casinos operate on the "Law of Large Numbers": The more bets made, the more likely it is that casino will come out ahead. But we're talking about total bets by everyone in the casino, not individuals.<BR><BR>Here's how it works: If, as in blackjack, the casino has about a 2% edge, that means if you make twenty $5 bets in an hour for a total of $100 bet, the casino will end up with $2, and you'll end up with $98 -- every hour.<BR><BR>That, of course, doesn't work in the real world for individuals, except when you're talking about hundreds of gamblers making wagers every hour. Then, the Law of Large Numbers takes over, and the casino makes its average of 2% profit per hour. <BR><BR>Stan seems to think that card counters can tip the odds in their favor. Maybe. Card counting, as a theory, doesn't account for human error when counting or betting. And what he glosses over is that casinos have the resources to weather long losing streaks (yes, they have them), while most people -- even competent card counters -- do not have such resources.<BR><BR>Does anyone win? Sure. My wife has played blackjack twice in her life and won about $50 both times. Does that count?

If you can count cards in BJ your odds become significantly greater than 50/50. And in support of Stan, only the first card dealt in BJ is a 1 in 52(true random) - or 1 in 13 since BJ is suitless . From that point on, the advantage progresses in favor of the counter. And this is the only way to beat the casino outside of cheating in non-pari-mutual gaming. Though video poker can have the least painful odds (never in your favor) but you have to check the schedule on each machine because they vary significantly.

"Significantly greater" odds by counting at BJ? Not really. Again, you ignore the factor of human error, cited by Wizard. And even if you counted and bet perfectly, it would give you an edge of no more than about 1% -- which decreases with the number of decks used by the house.<BR><BR>So, even if you counted and bet perfectly, and wagered, say, $1000 an hour (fifty bets at an average of $20 each) your long-term take would be $10 an hour -- 1% of $1000. It's easier to go to work, my friend.

QUESTION HERE:<BR>there seems to be a lot of hostility on the part of some of the gamblers in this thread.<BR>Why so?<BR>No one here has said gambling should be outlawed.<BR>No one has said gambling isn't a valid form of entertainment.<BR><BR>A bunch of facts about gambling have been stated.<BR>Why does that anger you gamblers???

Gamblers are like smokers -- deep down they know they're fighting the odds, but they like doing it anyway. Too, they get defensive when someone hints that they're doing something "bad."<BR><BR>By the way, people who go to Vegas a couple of times a year and lose a few hundred dollars aren't really "gamblers." Rather, it's their form of entertainment -- the way some people buy tickets to the ballet. <BR><BR>And if I had a nickel for every one of those people who told me they "usually win," I'd have a lot of freakin nickels. Wanna bet it ain't true?

I do agree with counter that the advantage is 1%. I consider that significant. You must couple that with betting strategy - your advantage is highest when you've seen the most cards - up your bets but then you risk getting caught. It is certainly an art form but is the only way to play and beat the odds. Of course, it's not like anyone can just decide that they are going to learn to count and be successful at it.

I wonder if "gamblerToo" has any thoughts about your theory.<BR>She's been awfully quiet.

No,JJJJ , I have no thoughts on any of this-I know I won a lot of money that time,my husband plays blackjack and ususally does well, I fool around at the slot machines. I know we have done well other trips in other casinos than Las Vegas, but this seems to have turned into some other topic now.Sort of "gamblers who win vs gamblers(non-gamblers) who don't". Thanks for asking though.

to gambledonce<BR>you still don't seem to get what's being said above.<BR>no one claimed people don't win in vegas. people win all the time.<BR>what was stated was that no one wins over any long period of time.<BR>that is, the people who go to vegas or to a riverboat casino several times a year. those people will never come out ahead over a period of even a few years.<BR>pretty simple.<BR>

OK, hmm. You can slice and dice this any way you want, but the numbers are still the same. Wager $1000 an hour at 1% edge and you end up with an average profit of $10/hr. You can implement all the "strategy" you want, but it still won't change the numbers. And, yes, I understand that the odds change as more cards are dealt, but you're neatly skipping over the fact that sometimes the odds change for the house and against the bettor -- it's not as if your odds improve every time more cards are dealt.<BR><BR>Sorry, I remain unconvinced that car counting provides a significant edge. And again, you've ignored the factor of human error on the counter's part.

I dunno... seems like the anti-gamblers are the violent horde!

I was a casino security supervisor for 20 years, so if you're interested in an essay on winning & losing and card counting, read on. If not, skip it.<BR><BR>1. Winners and losers. Casino managers measure success in money, not in numbers of losers. So, if two people walk out winning $100 each, and a third person walks out losing $1000, that matters most. On average, I'd estimate that on any given day, about 48% of the people walk out ahead. That means 52% lose. Now, that's "significant."<BR><BR>2. Card counters. The hotel had an official policy to ban all suspected card counters, but those of us in the trenches thought it was funny. Here's why: Most counters are nearly as slick or efficient as they think they are. They make mistakes and usually end up getting wiped out by an inevitable bad streak. I used to joke to the hotel manager that we should put up a sign saying COUNTERS WELCOME! I don't gamble, but if I did, I would wager that 99.99% of counters end up burned out and back at their 9-5 jobs. Counting is a miserable, usually unsuccessful grind.

Watch out 'cop'.<BR>Shining the light of truth on the fact that you can't get rich gambling only seems to bring out the wrath of the naive and uninformed.<BR>But a sincere thank you for your input.<BR><BR>I'm not out to bash gamblers. I simply wish all gamblers had thorough knowledge of the odds pertinent to their games of choice, and a sound grasp of the big picture.<BR>If people gamble for entertainment, great.<BR>If they gamble to try to go home rich, they simply aren't very bright.

Ever see those John Stossel segments on TV called "The Fleecing of America"?<BR>That kind of sums it up for me.<BR><BR>I have no idea why, but I have a strong dislike for entities or people who take advantage of other people.<BR>The misuse of donated money to the 9/11 charities angers me.<BR>Stock brokers who 'churn' people's money to earn commissions for themselves, all the while knowing that they're actually hurting the investors who trust them bother me greatly.<BR>Politicians who take advantage of their status for personal gain (Dan Rostenkowski, for example) irk me.<BR>Life insurance salesmen who all but lie to older people to get them to make unwise 'investments' anger me.<BR>Timshare hucksters who fool people into thinking they're getting something for nothing bug me.<BR><BR>Casinos don't actually take advantage of people. Full disclosure is out there for people's perusal. And many people only use gambling as entertainment. But the casinos also make a large percentage of their profits from people who simply don't understand how they're being taken advantage of. Because the games are complex enough and the 'rule of large numbers' phenomenon is hard for many people to grasp.<BR>I simply believe, right or wrong, that many people are needlessly hurt by gambling. Some people can't safely be around alcohol. Some people wouldn't throw sums of money down the drain if they knew more about gambling odds.<BR>My arguments are not for the casual gambler. They're for the people who potentially hurt themselves and others by not knowing what's going on.<BR><BR>Dr Freud, would you also complain if I spent my free time going around to elementary schools telling kids about the dangers of crack cocaine? Is this information harming anyone? (I happen to be off work for a couple days and the bad weather leaves me few outdoor options at present).<BR>

WOW this has turned into a good little debate hasn't it?? <BR> Cop&gt; I, like you, thought it CRAZY going after counters. Like you said, 99.99% can't count good enough to effect your bottom line. So that should tell people like "counter" a little something about the advantage a skilled counter has over the house. If the house is worried about such a small % of people winning,,hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...<BR> Oh and BTW for those interested, so far this year I am ahead $96,500.00<BR>and with one more trip before the new year hope to break six figures for the first time...ohh ya baby!!!!!<BR> <BR>

Well, I would hardly compare selling cocaine on the streets to adults gambling for fun/or profit..which as much as you hate to admit it, plenty of people do win sometimes,big! So, I hope the weather improves and you can get out there and do some good, I can tell you are a warm and fuzzy person just itching to get out and straighten people out..

I think to compare buying cocaine with gambling is pretty good: <BR><BR>Figure the amount of money you spend on the drugs against how long you stay high. Then your high is gone & so is your money. <BR><BR>Take the same amount of money & you'd probably spend about the same amount of time at a table as you would being high. You're out of time & out of money. <BR><BR>Same thing. In both cases, you're money's gone & you have nothing to show for it, & you probably feel pretty bad to boot.<BR><BR>Unless of course with any LUCK you actually might come out ahead with the gambling. <BR>