Airfare costs: any chance of prices coming down before September?
 

I don't know how airlines figure airfare, but I'm wondering if I should book tickets now for a September trip?

It's months away, and as I recall from a couple years ago, prices kept fluctuating and I waited and got the best deals when I booked in July for an October trip.

But this year with rising fuel costs, I'm think there's no way fares are going to go down and can only go up!

Thoughts.

I think you are right about the fuel costs. Find a decent price and book it now.

Depends where you're going, but both domestic & international fares usually come down around Sept 15th....best time to buy is about 45 days prior to travel.

farecast is quite good at predicting these things.

http://www.farecast.com/about/howAirPredictions.do

maria, thanks for farecast. But if I read it right, it only predicts for about a month out, so I can't check predictions in the fall.

I'll keep playing with it.

Yea right, let me look in my crystal ball...

A couple of years ago, fuel costs were not rising as quickly.

And, in the last couple of years, the airlines have continued to reduce their schedules rather than have empty seats to sell cheaply.

I shop like the dickens and book if I really want to go. I wait when I'm more likely to go at a more favorable fare (but book a hotel, anyway, that can be canceled).

On many airline and other booking websites, you can watch the seats sell.

It depends if you're stuck on sticking to certain flights at certain times. The sale fares often come up for the more inconvenient flights or for flights with connections.

With oil at $100+ a bbl with no end in sight, I wouldn't bet on prices dropping anytime soon. Even if oil prices drop, the airlines may keep price increases to recoup some of their problems.

That said, it really will depend on where you're going and when.

But, I saw prices go from $600 to $1100 on a flight from Newark to Cabo San Lucas even though the seat availability remained constant.

These airlines make no sense (but I've known that for decades).

I just checked for a May trip from FLL to CMH on Delta, and it costs a great big whopping $118.00 round-trip! That is half of what it was a month ago --- before the last couple increases in the fuel surcharge went into effect.

It means, that competition being what it is, the public is still guranteed good air fares even with $100.00/barrel oil.

My advice, book now! I always book as far in advance as possible for the best prices. More people are flying now, and your chances of finding better prices later are slim. Also, make sure you check multiple carriers. South West and Jet Blue usually have decent prices.

Booking as far in advance as possible does not in any way guarantee you the lowest fare, especially during the fare-sale seasons. I watched for 3 months as tickets to Hawaii were pricing at $550 each, then exactly 30 days before travel they went down to $375. Not all airlines will refund you the difference or even credit you the difference. Some will give you the lower fare minus a $100 change fee per ticket, which means you lost 100 bucks by "booking early to get the best fare".

I think as one poster said, the bottom line is how badly do you want to go WHEN you want to go and WHERE you want to go?

If you have the luxary of changing dates, or even locations, then I think you take the chance and wait till maybe a month or two before your trip.

If not, I think you book the best fare you can now.

I worry less about changing fares because I usually fly Southwest, and if they ever lower their fares, I can re-book and get the difference as a credit for future flights. I fly them enough that I can just apply the credit to a future flight within the next year.

By the way, despite rising fuel costs the last few years, I'm still able to fly regularly round-trip Portland, OR to Philadelphia for about $225. That fare hasn't gone up in the last few years despite rising oil prices. I think it's actually a bit lower than it was ten years ago.

Can they hit you with a fuel surcharge increase AFTER you book a flight?

United Airlines said Friday it boosted its ticket prices by as much as much as $50 round-trip,
The broad-based domestic increases, which went into effect late Thursday, are based on the length of the flight, meaning that trips of under 500 miles will cost travelers $4 to $10 more round-trip. Journeys of more than 1,500 miles are now $12 to $50 more expensive than before the increase.
As the price of oil has risen, carriers have tried to push more of their fuel costs onto consumers. Some of those increases have stuck, but stiff competition from low-cost airlines such as Southwest Airlines Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp. means many others have been rolled back after competing airlines failed to follow suit.

travelinandgolfin,

I don't think they can do that (charge you more after you've booked a ticket) unless of course you are requesting a change in your itinerary. At least, I have never heard of that.

That farecast does ok, admittedly for those fares coming up soon, but I always think that if I book early, I get those very few seats that they put on discount. What I have noticed is that they set a certain amount a year out (for those that let you schedule a year out like continental - southwest doesn't). Then within 6 months, they change it according to what the real projected costs are but they always have a couple of seats at the lowest fare. Kind of like their quota before they increase. The only time they decrease is if noone is buying closer to the time but with most airlines cutting back flights, you are better off getting the fare sooner, rather than later.

Long story short, buy now.

Fodor books say that if you find a good price, BOOK IT ON THE SPOT because that price may not be available tomorrow-that's good advice. Even in a week, tickets can flucutate $500. Make sure you use a good travel search engine like Hotwire or Expedia. Also, if you find an airline ticket on a travel search engine, go to the actual airline's home page-you may not have to pay a fee. Hope this helps and enjoy your vacation!

Sign up for all the fare watchers you can and when you see a fare you can live with, jump on it. We just got tickets lined up for our children to come east for a beach trip in August, and I'm glad to have it out of the way. There might be a very very remote chance a better fare (by $25-50)might come up, but I think it's more likely to be $100 MORE than what we are paying.

We just booked already. Folks that fly to Oregon from Hawaii was saying it's a good price, so why get greedy.

I was looking back on previous plans to go to Oregon and in August 2006, the cost was 1100 for two RT tickets. Last August, it was 775.00. Now it's 900.00, so I figure that's probably about right.