JBX

Actually if NYC takes a direct hit as a Cat 1, there is potential for serious storm surge which could impact lower Manhattan. BUT, right now this storm is still a few days away, and is off coast of Florida ..... a wobble to east or west can significantly change how this storm will affect NY, etc.

JBX

.... potential for "once in a 50 year hurricane" >>>
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...lam-into-t.asp

Bowsprit

michelleNYC: I so agree with you. Mayor Bloomberg was talking about the potential for evacuations on tonight's newscast. It is possible that the subways and all mass transit, including trains, will be closed if this storm reaches it potential. If there's any chance of flooding they'll close the subways even before the storm hits.

Err on the side of caution here, I think.

330east

I'm voting for Monday based on tonight's forecast. It should be gone by Monday. Sat and Sunday will be no good. And if you postpone you may not get here till Thursday. Bonne voyage.

Bowsprit

The storm will be gone by Monday but its aftermath may still affect the city, I fear.

Aduchamp1

JFK is right by Jamaica Bay. In fact one of the runways juts into the water. If there is a storm surge, it could effect the lighting on the runways or the runways themselves.

georgec

thanks again. I have taken all into consideration and have been lucky to reschedule for Wednesday. Same flight. Have to alter some dinner/theatre/tour reservations. It will be interesting to find which organisations accept the alterations etc. I will keep you informed.

JBX

georgec --

Good course of action ..... already several of US carriers are pro-actively cancelling some flights. And likely, most all airlines will waive fees to change flights if original itinerary is for Sat/Sun/Mon.

http://www.petergreenberg.com/2011/0...ng-east-coast/

seetheworld

My SIL was due to arrive from the UK on Sunday evening. American already offered to rebook, which she did and now she is arriving On Tuesday. Do not come on Sat or Sun.

Mahya2

CNN reporting that if storm hits full, the surge will put JFK under 15 to 20 feet of water......

Mayor Bloomberg this afternoon,Friday, has ordered the evacuation of parts of 5 New York City counties and all of Wall Street and the Battery in lower Manhattan.

Last bad storm in Florida, Wilma in October o5 took three weeks to restore electricity.

I would think it might be wise to change vacation plans to later in September.

Ozarksbill

At this point on Sunday noon it would seem Irene will be out to sea and its OK on Monday. Just now getting some wind here in Boston with Monday supposed to be clear and fair. Certainly in days thereafter no problems. NYC should be back to normal.

Aduchamp1

Despite hysterical and inaccurate reports above, there was nothing that even approached those levels of surges in NYC. No one in Manhattan has lost any power.

By chance we had lunch Friday with a fellow who struck up a converstaion with us. He was a retired airport manager and he was called in to help with Irene. His assessment was spot on. He said, there would be 40-70 mile an hour winds, there would a surge that would cover the tarmacs and there would be debris everyhwere but no lasting damage.

He was hopeful that JFK would at least be partially open by Monday.

There have not been any alerts one way or another fro JFK but Manhattan, is thankfully, relatively damage free, except for some fallen frees. We just took a walk over to the East River, it was fairly calm.

The only delays I would have in my trip are those imposed by your carrier.

nytraveler

As of this minute their are still very high seas (storm surges) and the sea did break through into residentiak areas in a couple of places in the Rockaways. But we did miss the worst - barely. (The surge/high tide topped out about 6" below the sea walls for Manhattan. But there has been a lot of flooding due to incredibly heavy rains and at the moment roads are a mess - although power outages (primarily due to downed trees) are scattered all around the city.

The airports are still closed today for cleaning and it is anticipated that flights will begin again some time tomorrow - but do not expect all flights to be on time - or to happen at all - since many hundreds of planes are in the wrong places. So - anyone planning on coming to any airport on the east coast check with airports before you head to the airport.

The city is clearing the public transit system (removing downed trees from train lines and bus routes and and pumping rainwater from subway stations). The system will come back on line in sequence with subways last, since the entire track has to be walked in daylight before starting full - train service, which is anticipated for sometime late tomorrow, It is anticipated that the seas should be calm enough be tonight to restart the Staten Island ferry. All major bridges and tunnels are operative except for the outgoing Holland tunnel, which has a flooded entrance in Manhattan, but should be operative by tomorrow morning.

Despite some scaremongers who projected massive looting - there was none. in fact there were only 45 arrests overnight - versus a usual 350 for a Sat night in August.

Notably several idiots went out into the bay in kayaks Sat night. Naturally the kayaks overturned and they were left floating in the sea. The NYPD marine police sent out a boat to rescue them (successfully) and the idiots were given summonses and are being required to pay the cost of sending out the boat (and risking the lives of those police for no reason.)

gulliver433

I live in Manhattan in a west Chelsea neighborhood that was designated as a mandatory evacuation zone due to the proximity of the water and low-laying land, and everything today is perfectly fine. Electricity remained on the whole time, and the city has snapped back to normal already. Airports are opening up, so I'd hop on the next flight to NYC and avoid detaining your trip any further over the hurricane.

However, if you were planning on going to beaches (e.g. the Hamptons) I'd check the status of the specific area. Many beaches near NYC had some damage, so I'd research and you may need to explore alternate options. But the city is totally fine.

nytraveler

Tourist areas of the city re totally fine - except Central Park which is still closed. They are removing fallen trees and checking others for status.

There are still problems in residential areas in the outer boroughs and suburbs - mostly due to fallen trees (that is, electricity out and some commuter trains and Amtrak stopped until they can clear all of the trees of the tracks.

georgec

Thanks again everyone,
Flying into JFK tomorrow (Wednesday) for 10 day visit. Had to change hotel as extra days were not available. Slightly more expensive. Changed tour dates, no problem. Rescheduled Big Greeter, thanks Gordon. It may be a rush for theater at 7pm Wednesday, but haho!!
looking forward to your great city and hope no one has any great hurricane/ flood damage.
Hope to do a trip report???

Aduchamp1

The weather is supposed to be perfect at least through Sunday. Enjoy the city.

nytraveler

Central Park pen today. You can see a number of very large old trees that either fell in the storm or were pulled down as dangerous. This AM they were starting to cut up and remove them. So now Park is packed with walkers, joggers, bikers, etc.

Cranachin

I don't think a visitor should ever change plans to arrive BEFORE a hurricane or tropical storm. There are simply too many unknowns related to electricity, water, and such in the aftermath of the storm.

While the effects of Irene on NYC might not have been too bad this time, imagine if the OP had been scheduled to visit Vermont! Never underestimate the power of a hurricane or tropical storm. And never think the "next one" won't be bad just because the "last one" wasn't!

Ackislander

Wonderful advice from Cranachin.

Humans have a built in bias -- this is real science -- for overestimating optimistic outcomes. This bias is alive and well on travel forums.

Without going to the opposite extremes -- unwarranted paranoia or analysis paralysis, also both in evidence here -- you really have to work to at being rational when all you want to do is make that trip because you have so much invested in the planning.