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Yes, Another TGV Question - Quick Answer Needed Please

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Briefly, DD called, plane to CDG is delayed and even though they booked their TGV to Bordeaux 5 hours after plane was supposed to land, they are not sure if they will make it.

Two questions:

What are the odds of making a 14:16 TGV from CDG TGV 2 (they are arriving on AA #48 - I cant remember what terminal) if the plane lands at say 12:38?

They are trying to decide in the next 40 minutes (before their hopeful takeoff time) if they will exchange their tix for the 16:25 TGV. They have exchangable tix.

Thanks, opinions please on what would be their best course of action.

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