I'm not sure I agree with the idea of "buy euros now". Primo, you will take a...say 5%...hit now. If the dollar were to go up, you've paid the 5%, and lost whatever opportunity you might have had to get the currency cheaper, later on.

Secondo, by buying now, even if the currency does not move at all, you will have paid more than if you used your ATM card on your holiday.

So buying now is also making an assumption on the direction of the $.

But, I do like the idea of putting the cash, if you have it, in an interst bearing instrument. Currency up, currency down, you have more money to spend.

Lastly, do not look at the exchange rates very day/weekly,monthly. All you are doing is creating tension. You can't control them, so why bother. I also don't watch the weather channel :)

What you can do is...price out what your daily holiday items that will be in euros will cost. Now...add 5%. For me, I plan around 100e for hotel, maybe 100e for meals and misc a day, 200e a day. If the currency moves by 10% (huge), that's 20e a day. Is being in europe going to change because of ~$30 a day. If I was going for a month, maybe. If I feel a little pinch, maybe I'll buy less souvenirs, or have a fresh sandwich for lunch instead of a sit down meal.

I look at it the opposite to some. I'm going, how much $ do I need, if too expensive I'll go off season, take one day from trip,etc..But I'm going, and I don't care what the currency is at.

Note, I'm Canadian, so we've been dealing with a weak currency for a long time.

If people who watch currencies for a living can't predict it 100% accurately, why should I expect to be any better

I will be very interested in the price of airline tickets next year. I don't believe there will be many deals. I tried using my FF miles on American but all the seats were taken. They did have seat availability for 180,000 miles but I refuse to upgrade to business on a 767 out of ORD. It is not worth it to me. The planes are old and the business class section is absolutely worn bare.

"I'm not sure I agree with the idea of "buy euros now"."

I don't agree with it either, but the OP seems very concerned about the dollar continuing to drop. The point about buying Euros now is that the OP has two concerns, the first is securing the rooms, while the second is the concern that (due to a declining $), the room will cost more next year. By reserving the rooms, she has fully addressed the first concern. She should look for the simplest way to address her secondary concern. The point is that prepaying for the rooms is not the simplest method. It ties up her cash and leaves her no flexibility. Buying Euros at least gives her a highly liquid asset and flexibility.

That being said, I think all of this concern over the dollar is going a little overboard, and re-reading, I have this to say to the OP:

Despite your claims that you are not looking for anyone to predict the future, you seem to be predicting it yourself. But don't be under any illusions about what you are thinking about doing and what kind of advice you are asking people to give you. You are basically shorting the dollar. I am not saying this is a good or bad investment, but I have never seen anything on these boards that suggests anyone here is remotely qualified to offer advice on investing in foreign currencies, myself included. Anyone here can offer advice, but are they giving you any better advice than "put it all on black"? Put another way, would you ask the denizens of the Fodor's message board for advice on whether you should invest in Wal-Mart stock? Well, fx trading is even more specialized than stock market investing, so take any advice from an anonymous chat room with a grain of salt.

You should stick with your current savings plan, whatever that may be. If you are convinced that the Euro is cheap right now (which would be the only reason to buy it), then talk to someone qualified about investing in Euros the right way. If, instead, you are concerned that this trip may cost more than you budgeted, be it due to fx or whatever, then you should increase your savings rate, and not try to customize the investment for specific purposes.

Well said TG,

I think it's safe to say that any choice will have the potential of being a good...or a bad choice.

That being said, if the OP decides to lock in by paying hotel in full and stuffing mattress with euros...will she then promise to not look or care about the exchange rates...or will she still keep check to see if she made the right decision.

To me, I think it would seem like a surefire way to possibly ruin holiday by watching as currency fluctuates and do a "I should never have..." Be done with it aand enjoy and plan the holiday..and put few extra GWashingtons into the piggy bank..or in the mattress with the euros :)

morgiesmom, I understand your concerns.

But you should bear in mind that anybody who actually knows the answer to your question (if such a person exists) is unlikely to be dispensing financial advice here, but will be fully engaged in trading currencies -- buying or selling dollar futures.

Think about the issue facing you. In effect, you are talking about becoming, in your own small way, a money market speculator. And whatever you decide, you will be speculating!

Oh come on...I saw on TV late Satuday night a course on trading FX that was computerized so I just had to sell when the arrow was green..or was that red?!:)

I'd nail down the accommodations (and airfare) now.

The dollar will continue to slide as Iraq remains unresolved and oil continues its volatility.

I'd bet on it. In fact, I have, because about half my stock mutuals are in international funds. Up about 30% on the year - and it isn't even Thanksgiving yet.

>so I just had to sell when the arrow was green
Yep, but you don't need to sell, buy and push a button yourself, the computer does everything for you. :D

I'll be visiting the US next week (If they let me in, who knows, they may think all liberals are terrorists... and all Germans are Nazis. I must be overkill for them ;-) )

I've got $134.27 in cash (that's all the $ denominated assets in my portfolio) and 5 credit cards, far better than cash. (One gives 5% on gas.)

The bad thing are those expensive low quality rooms and a few other things like poverty , crime (and dirt).

The GOOD THING are cheap cotton clothing, chinese shoes, big outlet malls, black friday!!!, cans of coke for less than 20ct without any deposit, (drink and trash, yeah! ;-) ), dominos pizza and RIDICULOUSLY low gas prices of about $3.50 per gallon.

I do confess, I love the US of A. :-)

logos, have fun on your trip. Where are you shopping - er, visiting? Maybe you can bring me some euros so I can stock up. What is your exchange rate? :-)

Hey, I work for CBP, I'll to put a good word for you with the guys at the airport.

>Where are you shopping
I'll be arriving at EWR and spend the first night in Easton, PA (going to Easton ;-). Back to Jersey Gardens, up to Woodbury Commons from there west to Ohio, Indiana, Missouri. I've got two weeks altogether. As long as the car doesn't break into pieces, I'll be o.k ;-). (They must hate Germans at National car rental :D My record is a little above 10000 miles in 3 weeks, but that included the Yukon) If it's to cold, Texas is an option. The only problem is, I don't want to stand in line at 5am to get the best deals...