Transatlantic flights this summer: is it truly going to be a seller's market? Are there any experts out there?
Mar 20th, 2006, 03:33 PM
#21
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Well LoveItaly--
Thanks for the USA Today link. It is disheartening to read because it is going to cost me a lot more, but this is just the kind of info I was looking for. Guess I'd better push the "buy" button soon.
Thanks for the USA Today link. It is disheartening to read because it is going to cost me a lot more, but this is just the kind of info I was looking for. Guess I'd better push the "buy" button soon.
Mar 20th, 2006, 04:38 PM
#22
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The airlines have been very poorly managed over the past 10 years or so, and the idiotic model of airfare prices (cheaper roundtrip than oneway, a longer flight cheaper than a shorter one with the end destination the same, etc.) makes it obvious. You can't run a business as illogically as it's been done and survive in the marketplace. I've heard all the convoluted explanations about hubs, fares, and so on, and the fact is that it doesn't make sense---and it <i>obviously</i> doesn't work.
Mar 20th, 2006, 04:51 PM
#23
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In fairness, $450-$500 hasn't been a typical summer fare from Minneapolis to Paris or Frankfurt in recent history. That is more like a Spring or Fall fare. That said, there is no question that fares for a LOT of destinations are higher this year. Some of the most shocking increases are not to Europe, in my view.
About all I can say is that I'm happy that I was able to travel so much over the past few years when times were really good for airfares (and terrible for airlines).
About all I can say is that I'm happy that I was able to travel so much over the past few years when times were really good for airfares (and terrible for airlines).
Mar 20th, 2006, 05:01 PM
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julies - don't forget that the World Cup is going on mid June - July, so that accounts for extra people going to Germany passing through the usual connections. Frankfurt and Munich will probably end up being be sold out or very expensive for June as will Paris and London because they are easy to connect through. I would keep an eye on some of the not so obvious flights to Europe (like Bristol) , and some the new connections on Delta that may or may not be as popular (Budapest, Kiev, etc) then making connections from there perhaps on a budget airline, or even renting a car if possible. I think there may be select markets on sale, but I would not expect any good sale fares to London, Paris, Frankfurt,or Munich. Select a flight on Orbitz,look at the seat maps if possible. If it is almost sold out, chances are prices will not go any lower. If there are plenty of seats still available, it may get cheaper in the days closer to the flight. Good luck!
Mar 20th, 2006, 06:09 PM
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julies,
I am also flying out of MSP hopefully to Helsinki this fall. I have noticed the price slowly increasing. I would have thought some stability, but that has not been the case. I have also noticed a couple flights on Icelandair in September are sold out!
I don't know if the price increases are because of computer cookies. I have heard of sites tracking your visits so the prices can change dependent on your frequency of your visits- that seems unreal to me.
However, another idea has come to mind that perhaps we are seeing flights out of MSP linked to NWA's problems. Maybe companies are hedging their bets when it comes to the MSP market? That also seems a little unreal but who knew that we could be faced with paying more for aisle sides? I wonder if they will start discounting the middle seat?
I am also flying out of MSP hopefully to Helsinki this fall. I have noticed the price slowly increasing. I would have thought some stability, but that has not been the case. I have also noticed a couple flights on Icelandair in September are sold out!
I don't know if the price increases are because of computer cookies. I have heard of sites tracking your visits so the prices can change dependent on your frequency of your visits- that seems unreal to me.
However, another idea has come to mind that perhaps we are seeing flights out of MSP linked to NWA's problems. Maybe companies are hedging their bets when it comes to the MSP market? That also seems a little unreal but who knew that we could be faced with paying more for aisle sides? I wonder if they will start discounting the middle seat?
Mar 20th, 2006, 06:47 PM
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<< ...You can't run a business as illogically as it's been done and survive in the marketplace. I've heard all the convoluted explanations about hubs, fares, and so on, and the fact is that it doesn't make sense - - - and it obviously doesn't work... >>
I think that this is so not true. If it were easy to "do it better" then, there would be no shortage of entrepreneurial startups to offer a cheaper, better <i><b>transatlantic</b></i> service than is available right now. I know that it isn't as easy as setting up a lemonade stand - - transatlnatic flying involves clearance, landing rights, and the blessing of governmental agencies on both sides of the ocean.
And there have been <i><b>some</b></i> entries... Maxjet, Eurofly, LTU, Air Europa - - and a few that have not survived (something or other into Brussels, and probably others I'm forgetting, right?)...
... but still, these newcomers have been scarcely able to grab... what - - 1? 2? of the traffic? Do we believe that Canadian companies wouldn't siphone planeloads of customers with cheaper, better deals, if it were easy?
I go back to the original premise in the the initial premise asked by "julies" - - what happened to the <i>rare</i> bottom-of-the-barrel fares that she learned to watch for, like a hawk, and (maybe with considerable flexibility) scarf up for $499 (before taxes? which have quadrupled since 9/11) on one or two selected routes? They just flat disappeared, jul... because they were 60% off, and matching capacity to demand made it quite unnecessary to offer them anymore. But the more typical, <i>average</i> fare (paid by less savvy, guy-on-the-street travelers) has NOT gone up 100% - - motre like a "mere" 15-30%, I suspect (and half of that increase is taxes).
And it's stil an incredible bargain. Been to the dental hygienist lately? Had an exam by a retinal-specialist ophthalmologist? Or an echocardiogram?
Travel remains such a much better deal than most health care expenditures. Yes, I am biting the hand that feeds me. I'm quite embarrassed to think of how poorly our profession stacks up, compared to much of the travel and hospitality industry.
I realize how weak the analogy is... but medical care SO, SO needs a "Priceline"... for a good half of the stuff we do (I know... that sounds insane - - the problem is, that the circumstances of illness, and the poor understanding of human biology in the general public, and the priestly nature of medical assessment, information and options make it impossible for "consumers" to know what is a discretionary purchase... and what ought not be).
End of rant, for now...
I think that this is so not true. If it were easy to "do it better" then, there would be no shortage of entrepreneurial startups to offer a cheaper, better <i><b>transatlantic</b></i> service than is available right now. I know that it isn't as easy as setting up a lemonade stand - - transatlnatic flying involves clearance, landing rights, and the blessing of governmental agencies on both sides of the ocean.
And there have been <i><b>some</b></i> entries... Maxjet, Eurofly, LTU, Air Europa - - and a few that have not survived (something or other into Brussels, and probably others I'm forgetting, right?)...
... but still, these newcomers have been scarcely able to grab... what - - 1? 2? of the traffic? Do we believe that Canadian companies wouldn't siphone planeloads of customers with cheaper, better deals, if it were easy?
I go back to the original premise in the the initial premise asked by "julies" - - what happened to the <i>rare</i> bottom-of-the-barrel fares that she learned to watch for, like a hawk, and (maybe with considerable flexibility) scarf up for $499 (before taxes? which have quadrupled since 9/11) on one or two selected routes? They just flat disappeared, jul... because they were 60% off, and matching capacity to demand made it quite unnecessary to offer them anymore. But the more typical, <i>average</i> fare (paid by less savvy, guy-on-the-street travelers) has NOT gone up 100% - - motre like a "mere" 15-30%, I suspect (and half of that increase is taxes).
And it's stil an incredible bargain. Been to the dental hygienist lately? Had an exam by a retinal-specialist ophthalmologist? Or an echocardiogram?
Travel remains such a much better deal than most health care expenditures. Yes, I am biting the hand that feeds me. I'm quite embarrassed to think of how poorly our profession stacks up, compared to much of the travel and hospitality industry.
I realize how weak the analogy is... but medical care SO, SO needs a "Priceline"... for a good half of the stuff we do (I know... that sounds insane - - the problem is, that the circumstances of illness, and the poor understanding of human biology in the general public, and the priestly nature of medical assessment, information and options make it impossible for "consumers" to know what is a discretionary purchase... and what ought not be).
End of rant, for now...
Mar 20th, 2006, 07:12 PM
#30
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LLC--Now that you brought it up, I am also realizing the World Cup is coming into play here. I saw an interesting phenomenon when doing a flexible best fare finder search on Travelocity. LOT Polish is one of the big players in the market I am looking at (assuming I do the standard all the way through purchase rather than the two parter where I buy a separate transatlantic flight and then a separate cheaper intraEuropean flight). They have a gap for the month or 5 weeks of the World Cup when they are not offering their lower range fares at all. World Cup is the only explanation I can think of.
I think we have come to realization that for this particular year when we have an event we need to make, we will just have to pay the going rate. I've been saavy enough and played the market enough in the past that I have been able to snag those low fares. Apparently this year will balance those out.
KESinMN--I've also noticed IcelandAir is sold out for 4th of July week. Check out Copenhagen and then flying out of there. That seems to be the only cheaper place from MSP now.
Rex--You're right that we can at least compare costs on flights vs. medical care. But, the state of the health care system in the US is a completely different, but very interesting, topic that I suspect many of us would be intetrested in getting into a discussion about some time in the future.
I think we have come to realization that for this particular year when we have an event we need to make, we will just have to pay the going rate. I've been saavy enough and played the market enough in the past that I have been able to snag those low fares. Apparently this year will balance those out.
KESinMN--I've also noticed IcelandAir is sold out for 4th of July week. Check out Copenhagen and then flying out of there. That seems to be the only cheaper place from MSP now.
Rex--You're right that we can at least compare costs on flights vs. medical care. But, the state of the health care system in the US is a completely different, but very interesting, topic that I suspect many of us would be intetrested in getting into a discussion about some time in the future.
Mar 20th, 2006, 09:10 PM
#31
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Just a thought and I am not an economist. But this thread got me thinking. In 1978 we flew from SFO to MXP (Malpensa Airport, Milan) for a 60 day trip. The cost of the tickets were $950.00 pp. At that time our house was valued at about $225.000.00
To take the same flight today for the same time period, same airports, same airlines, the fare is $1299.00 . The same house that we owned at the time would now sell at around $800,000.00 minimum.
To take the same flight today for the same time period, same airports, same airlines, the fare is $1299.00 . The same house that we owned at the time would now sell at around $800,000.00 minimum.
Mar 21st, 2006, 05:22 AM
#33
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"Travel remains such a much better deal than most health care expenditures."
To call this "apples and oranges" is to only scratch the surface of the unsuitability of these two entities for comparison.
To call this "apples and oranges" is to only scratch the surface of the unsuitability of these two entities for comparison.
Mar 21st, 2006, 06:00 AM
#34
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I'm one of the many who have been searching for tickets from IAD(Dulles) to Frankfurt since October. I've made my hotels reservations and everything ... just haven't purchased the tickets. I'm still holding out for something cheaper than $1100 r/t. Our case is a bit more complicated in that my husband would fly r/t and he is tall so would like to take advantage of the "shortest route" and my ticket is open jaw from IAD to FRA and then CDG to IAD.
As far as route goes, United is our best bet and they do offer 4 or 5 flights per day flying non-stop from Dulles to Frankfurt. I'm hoping I catch a sale soon. Our trip is only 4 months off.
I can't see paying $2300 for two tickets to Europe when over Christmas Market season and even up through March 31, airfare was as low as $275 r/t per person to places like Frankfurt and Munich. I get upset thinking about it!
As far as route goes, United is our best bet and they do offer 4 or 5 flights per day flying non-stop from Dulles to Frankfurt. I'm hoping I catch a sale soon. Our trip is only 4 months off.
I can't see paying $2300 for two tickets to Europe when over Christmas Market season and even up through March 31, airfare was as low as $275 r/t per person to places like Frankfurt and Munich. I get upset thinking about it!
Mar 21st, 2006, 06:30 AM
#35
This is off topic, but an interesting little exercise...
Cost of one-way crossing (six days) from New York to Southampton on the Queen Mary 2, early June (typical cruise agent, inside cabin): $1200 Includes accommodation (would be 3- or 4-star hotel equivalent), all food, entertainment, Oxford lecturers and theatre presentations as well as babes with feathers... $200 a day per person.
Equivalent cost of hotel, say $200 for 2 persons, $100 each. Food, say $50 a day per person. Entertainment, say $25 a day per person. Total $175 a day per person.
Six days on the boat at $25 more per day = $150. That $150 is the cost of your transatlantic crossing. Take the boat coming back (probably a bit more per person because it's later in the summer, so guess the "premium" is $50 per person per day) = $300.
All in, your transatlantic transportation is $450 RT.
So if you have the time, you can get over the pond cheaply. Oh and by the way, your "flat bed" on the QM2 is way more comfortable than anything British Airways or Lufthansa can give you in First Class, never mind business class. OTOH the drinks cost on the QM2, and there's also a casino, so your per-person costs might vary. (Of course you might make money, something that <i>never</i> happens on BA.
)
Cost of one-way crossing (six days) from New York to Southampton on the Queen Mary 2, early June (typical cruise agent, inside cabin): $1200 Includes accommodation (would be 3- or 4-star hotel equivalent), all food, entertainment, Oxford lecturers and theatre presentations as well as babes with feathers... $200 a day per person.
Equivalent cost of hotel, say $200 for 2 persons, $100 each. Food, say $50 a day per person. Entertainment, say $25 a day per person. Total $175 a day per person.
Six days on the boat at $25 more per day = $150. That $150 is the cost of your transatlantic crossing. Take the boat coming back (probably a bit more per person because it's later in the summer, so guess the "premium" is $50 per person per day) = $300.
All in, your transatlantic transportation is $450 RT.
So if you have the time, you can get over the pond cheaply. Oh and by the way, your "flat bed" on the QM2 is way more comfortable than anything British Airways or Lufthansa can give you in First Class, never mind business class. OTOH the drinks cost on the QM2, and there's also a casino, so your per-person costs might vary. (Of course you might make money, something that <i>never</i> happens on BA.
)
Mar 21st, 2006, 06:38 AM
#36
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Gardyloo, funny you should bring that up. I checked that very scenario with Cunard, with a family party to the UK this summer. It turns out that, if all three of us shared the least expensive stateroom (not a pleasing prospect, but do-able), we'd have a grand old time for a week and spend about the same as high season air tickets. For a family party of four in the same stateroom, its cheaper to sail. Hmmmm...
Mar 21st, 2006, 06:44 AM
#37
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I capitalized on the Virgin sale to London for $413 a while ago and was very happy. Now, I just purchased 4 more tickets for relatives to fly from New York to Rome at $1038 each. Had to pay - no flexibility and can't wait to monitor prices. Ouch!
Mar 21st, 2006, 07:02 AM
#38
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<< To call this "apples and oranges" is to only scratch the surface of the unsuitability of these two entities for comparison. >>
On one level, I agree, and I indicated just some of the reasons that no such comparison can be made.
On the other hand, at the end of the day, just like some of the very different products sold in a grocery store (including some "<i>health care</i>" products), you open up your wallet and pay for both with the same kinds of money... much (but not all) of which goes to the "providers". We all make decisions like this everyday: apples versus aspirin, apples versus antkiller, apples versus diapers...
I'd be glad to take this to another thread, though the track record here on Fodors is not strong for allowing... even the loftiest... discussions of the sociopolitical economics of travel (versus anything else).
Hopefully, the original question asked by julies has received enough intelligent answers that this digression is forgiveable - - still, continuing this here seems unwise, even if only for the reason that many participants on the forum will have no clue that this "wolf" is being discussed under the "sheep's clothing" of a message header that has no bearing to this different/new/separate subject.
Do the participants of this forum really want a separate debate of these issues? - - for one thing, there are multiple issues rolled up under the broad topic of "economic <i>value</i> of travel versus healthcare", and it might be wise to separate some of them.
1. Age of the "consumer": I would argue (you could choose to agree or not) - - that a five year-old with acute leukemia gets more <i>value</v> from $100,000 of medical care... than say... an 80 year-old, with chronic hip pain.
2. The role of society in paying for travel versus health care: it is strongly engrained that healthcare costs ought have no bearing to the ability of the "consumer" to pay those costs. But there is (almost) no recognition of any "rights" to society-funded travel, no matter how great the "travel emergency". Can't afford it? Too bad. I can authorize the expenditure of thousands of dollars per day on the most futile of patient care, but it's almost impossible to get a plane ticket to fly his mother to be at his bedside.
3. Market forces and transparency of pricing in travel versus healthcare. Talk abut apples versus kryptonite!
...and there are surely a dozen other major subtopics, in this broad barrel of issues.
</i>
On one level, I agree, and I indicated just some of the reasons that no such comparison can be made.
On the other hand, at the end of the day, just like some of the very different products sold in a grocery store (including some "<i>health care</i>" products), you open up your wallet and pay for both with the same kinds of money... much (but not all) of which goes to the "providers". We all make decisions like this everyday: apples versus aspirin, apples versus antkiller, apples versus diapers...
I'd be glad to take this to another thread, though the track record here on Fodors is not strong for allowing... even the loftiest... discussions of the sociopolitical economics of travel (versus anything else).
Hopefully, the original question asked by julies has received enough intelligent answers that this digression is forgiveable - - still, continuing this here seems unwise, even if only for the reason that many participants on the forum will have no clue that this "wolf" is being discussed under the "sheep's clothing" of a message header that has no bearing to this different/new/separate subject.
Do the participants of this forum really want a separate debate of these issues? - - for one thing, there are multiple issues rolled up under the broad topic of "economic <i>value</i> of travel versus healthcare", and it might be wise to separate some of them.
1. Age of the "consumer": I would argue (you could choose to agree or not) - - that a five year-old with acute leukemia gets more <i>value</v> from $100,000 of medical care... than say... an 80 year-old, with chronic hip pain.
2. The role of society in paying for travel versus health care: it is strongly engrained that healthcare costs ought have no bearing to the ability of the "consumer" to pay those costs. But there is (almost) no recognition of any "rights" to society-funded travel, no matter how great the "travel emergency". Can't afford it? Too bad. I can authorize the expenditure of thousands of dollars per day on the most futile of patient care, but it's almost impossible to get a plane ticket to fly his mother to be at his bedside.
3. Market forces and transparency of pricing in travel versus healthcare. Talk abut apples versus kryptonite!
...and there are surely a dozen other major subtopics, in this broad barrel of issues.
</i>
Mar 21st, 2006, 08:02 AM
#40
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gardyloo, that sounds like a grand way to travel. I think I'll have to do that one day. (that's how my grandparents traveled, at least when they were first married - seems so civilised doesn't it???)
