I've had 10 trips to Europe and the dollar has been all over the place yet I've had 10 great trips. I would never let the exchange rate stop me from going to Europe. There are many free and low cost things to do there. From lodging to meals to entertainment plenty of bargains exist. Do some research -it will pay off for you. I've just finished my 4th trip in the last 12 months. London has many expensive places to eat. Most days my total food cost was less than 6 GBP and I didn't starve. The money I save by not staying in central London covered my plane ticket. So, for me, the exchange rate is irrelevant. Can't wait to get back!

I just did a trip to Chicago and was happy to find that our euros went so far! Between the weak dollar and the after Thanksgiving sales, I found some great deals.
I think the dollar will decline a little more, then strengthen some. But I wouldn't be surprised if it still takes over $1.20 to buy a euro by the end of the year.
I know the weak dollar is supposed to help exports, so I can't help but wonder: which US exports are enjoying the benefits? Who's exporting like gangbusters and raking in the dough thanks to the weak dollar? When you read the news, the only things that seem to be exported in growing numbers are jobs...

According to USA Today, things continue to get better:

WASHINGTON — The economy provided a double dose of good news Wednesday as reports showed that manufacturers increased their pace of output in November as new orders jumped and factories took on more workers, and that consumers spent briskly and earned more in October.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national manufacturing activity climbed in October, surpassing forecasts.

Stock market likes the good news and seems to be betting on more growth in 2005. Check your investment and retirement accounts, before you cry too much about a low dollar.

degas, that's great news.

Additionally, the Financial Times reports that the US economy grows 3.9% in third quarter, while inflation is down.

"Core personal consumption expenditures inflation, excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged at a 0.7 per cent rate in the quarter - the lowest reading since the 1960s."

And there's more good news:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/07ef349a-42...00e2511c8.html

I'm looking at U.S. travel destinations for 2005 -- Hawaii, and California wine country. ((b))

Well, I am very sorry to report that the news this (2 December) morning is that the dollar is now at the very lowest it has been and concerns are rising in places like Japan that it may have to be propped up (as Japanese exports become more and more expensive)
The exchange rate against the British Pound also seems to have worsened a little bit.

So much for the dollar having "bottomed out" I'm going to London in February anyway rather than hanging around here making financial predictions for which I am poorly qualified.

Looking to history to predict the future is both necessary and insufficient. Before 1929, would anyone have persuaded us that it would be possible for the Stock Market to implode? There were people warning about possible problems, but when the Crash came, it astonished everyone by its scale.

And remember the double-digit prime rates of the early 80's? Would we have thought then that we'd ever have a 1.5% prime rate? And can you imagine what our financial profiles would look like if we were back with 16% mortgages now? The range of possibility is wide; and the scope of catastrophe isn't limited by people who think being sanguine about cyclicalities will define the future.

So I wouldn't hide in your comfort zone about the dollar, just because a 50% defacto devaluation (or worse) seems unthinkable. Eventually, anything's thinkable or we wouldn't have history.

The question now, in any case, really isn't just whether it can go a lot lower -- it's also that it has already gone so low as to be a recognized, serious problem.

Aside from the politicizing apologists, the Fodorites among us most worried about this are those for whom $4-5000 for a trip to Europe is just about doable but $10,000 is completely out of the question. Remember that, those of you for whom the cost of that trip equals less than a month's income.

While it's bad news for travelers that the dollar has sunk vs. the euro and many other currencies, this is not some sort of unusual occurance.

Currency values do fluctuate. In the past, the dollar has been much lower than it is now when compared to the British pound and the basket of currencies from those nations that now use the euro.

It will go up, and it will go down. It will go up, and it will go down. I've been through several cycles in my lifetime in which the dollar was in much worse shape than it is now.

Again, that is too bad for those who want to travel to many countries right now, but it still isn't a case of the sky falling about our heads.

The dollar closed at 1.345 today, jeeeeez!

Looks like a vacation in Canada next year!

I was in Canada about a month ago - Montreal specifically - everything was little less than 20% off - not the bargain it use to be - but the food was fabulous. I read someone complaining that George just wants to keep us all stuck at home.

Just topping my own stuff here. ;-)

Today's exchange rate: 1.2758 U.S. Dollars per Euro; 1.8534 U.S. Dollars per British Pound; 1.2473 Canadian Dollars per U.S. Dollar.

Again, just topping my own stuff here.

The dollar bottomed out within a couple days of my original post a year ago. Up to that point it had moved down by an almost exact Fibonacci ratio of 1.618, from $.84 in April 2001 to $1.36 in December 2004.

In the last year, since my post, the euro has declined to about $1.17. This is down 14%. My prediction was right on, correct. I suspect that Warren Buffet cashed in his euro chips as he was releasing information that he was heavy in euros. Smart guy, if so, and probably so. Heck, the financial news was overloaded with the fact that he had purchased euros. When did he buy and when did he sell? He certainly wasn't buying when he was telling the world that he was buying. Duh?

What now? The dollar is in a pause now. If the Fibonacci theory holds the dollar will rise some more. It could go to about $1.07 by next spring or summer. If it drops below $1.16 you can bank on it.

I am not a financial advisor so don't blame me if you rely on this information to make investment decisions and lose your shirt or more. I'm just spouting off on this forum.

For those of you who do not know Fibonacci, do a google. He was the son of a Venice merchant in the 1100s. Dad sent the young man to Arabia and he came back with the number system that replaced Roman numerals. Otherwise we would be living in MMV, I think.