| smueller |
Jul 2nd, 2007 08:27 AM |
Risk is relative and probabilities of risk are meaningless without context.
The chance that you will be struck by lightning is not 1 in 55,928. It is zero in most circumstances and significantly greater than 1/55928 in a few circumstances (e.g., standing on a golf course or hiking above treeline during a lightning storm).
Simple statistics can be misleading because they generally assume a degree of randomness that does not exist. Does anyone dispute the notion that you are more likely to be the victim of a terrorist bomb in London or New York than Pueblo, Colorado? The victims of terrorism, like the victims of lightning, are not selected at random.
Every tourist that passed through Picadilly Circus last Friday night was at a considerable risk of becoming a victim of terrorism, and yet most didn't even realize it until they saw the news the following day.
Despite traveling to high-profile places that put me at some degree of elevated risk, I don't worry that I will be the victim of a terrorist act. But I am concerned about such acts nonetheless. Someone will be a victim of the next bomb or subway gassing, and this makes me more angry than worried.
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