Northern lights in Iceland in January
 

What is the probability of seeing Northern lights in Reykjavik in mid January? I am looking at a package thru Iceland Air for 3 nights in Iceland for a very good price in January 2015. We have been to Iceland before and loved it. We went there in early Sept so did not see northern lights then.
I have looked at the web site http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/ and it looks like Reykjavik is a good place to try to see northern lights but thought I would see if there is anyone out there with relevant experience / knowledge on this.
We are from Canada; I think that we can manage Iceland in January, we will just dress warmly and in layers and buy lovely Icelandic woolen knits if we need more warmth!

No way of knowing what the chances are. However if you go outside tonight somewhere with little light pollution you stand an excellent chance of seeing them if you have clear skies. Tomorrow night too.

In fact you stand as good a chance of seeing aurora in Canada as you do by going to Iceland.

Get outside tonight and see what you can see.

Thank you for your help with this. We did decide to stay home and try to see the northern lights in Canada after all.