sandralist

>>>"I look at who wants Brexit... "<<<

You might not like David Owen (or Owen Jones) any better, but it is not just the authoritarians and the opportunists supporting Brexit.

A good deal of support for staying in, both inside the UK and outside of it, is simply a preference for the status quo and fear of change. But the status quo is untenable regarding the European Union.

Tulips

I don't know about that Hetismij, I read somewhere recently that old people in the UK are quite well looked after, with benefits and entitlements. Don't know where I read that, I'll look it up.
In the Netherlands it's not as good these days...

flanneruk

"I read somewhere recently that old people in the UK are quite well looked after"

All these things are relative. Average earnings among British over-65s are now HIGHER than average earnings among the population as a whole. Our tax-funded benefits are slightly - to be honest, pointlessly trivially - better than the under 65 population gets. Those extra benefits are completely unjustifiable in the current economic climate, and for many beneficiaries they add little at considerable extra cost to taxpayers.

But state pensions are lower than in most of Western Europe: we typically have higher private pensions, so many Brits are better off than they'd be on the Continent. But many havce only the State money - and they're probably poorer than their European peers. And for people in heitismij's position (like most UK expatriates in Europe), there's the added problem that UK house prices have soared since 2000 - in much of Britain, even during the Recession - so few expatriates can afford to move back unless they're coming to a well-paid job.

All of which said: in our damp winters, with our jerry-built houses, high energy bills and traditionally low pensions, hypothermia was a significant killer of the over-60s only 20 years ago. It's now practically as rare as polio. Substantial chunks of the economy - from domestic tourism to sales of outdoor gear - now depend on the Grey Pound.

redsoleslady

Wow, am so impressed by how serious the conversation turn out to be.
The only thing that I can think about re impact to tourist if UK is opted out from EU is we can no longer do tax refund in LHR with the goods purchase in EU country if we do like road trip from Paris/Brussels for example, the hassle of getting the tax refund is gonna be same like if we gonna fly out via ZRH.

PalenQ

In the United Kingdom, the expression Grey pound is used in the context of marketing and or retail sources and refers to the economic power of the elderly people. It is frequently used as a label for movies aimed at an older audience. A similar term exists for lesbian and gay consumers, known as the Pink pound.>

Wondered what flanner's Grey Pound was - had an inkling but here's the definition.

and yes what a great discussion.

Can't EU Tax Refund companies set up a shop in a non-EU country like Britain if they opt out - EU VAT Refunda at major airports?

flanneruk

" we can no longer do tax refund in LHR with the goods purchase in EU country if we do like road trip from Paris/Brussels for example"

Britain's role in the EU's VAT refunding system is one of millions (and about priority number a million) among the issues needing to be addressed after a Brexit. Sooner or later, of course, the EU will get rid of this ridiculous subsidy to foreign freeloaders: if you take advantage of Europe's proper public services (and come from a country that charges us for entry, slaps tourist taxes on everything and fingerprints us like criminals) this absurd handback is totally unjustifiable.

It's pointless speculating what the outcome will be: no British Chancellor in the next decade, Brexit or no, is likely to cut VAT significantly below 20%, or to abolish the VAT system.

The likeliest arrangement would mean, in theory, British shoppers could reclaim VAT on high-value continental purchases. But, of course, we'd have to pay for all the extra bureaucrats administering Customs inspection posts at our borders - and pay British booze duty on wines and spirits bought on the continent.

Frankly, how non-European tax dodgers might be humoured (or better: told to stop scrounging) is of zero concern to most voters.

flanneruk

"Is it the Donald Trump segment of the electorate that would vote to exit the EU"

I'm not sure there is a "Donald Trump segment" of the British electorate.

The referendum was triggered by the apparent success of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which got 12.7% of votes in the May 2015 election, but just one out of 650 parliamentary seats. The overwhelming majority of their support is opposition to uncontrolled, but utterly legal, immigration of people from the poorer EU countries: statutorily entitled to virtually all Britain's social benefits. There is no equivalent grievance in the US.

UKIP's concerns appear shared by the MPs from the ruling Conservative party (about half of them) who've announced support for Brexit. In fact, these MPs' grievance is rarely free EU immigration: most pro-Brexit prominent Tories avidly use Polish plumbers and bars staffed by young Slovaks and Germans (and have holiday homes in Tuscany or the Dordogne they might lose access to if they win). Their real concern is that they see the EU as the real obstacle to continuing the "reforms" Thatcher - in their view - would be making if she were still alive and in office.

The Brexit campaign has become a nasty Conservative civil war between Thatcherite fundamentalists and Cameron's pragmatic wing. Almost all other political groupings (apart from most Northern Ireland Protestants) and trade unions agree on staying in.

Unlike Trumpery, there's virtually no support for trade isolationism. Indeed Brexit supporters mostly blame the EU for not opening up trade with other countries as fast as they think an Out UK would.

There's also little evidence British voters are that worried about the EU: most opinion research puts the EU about twentieth in voters' lists of concerns. About half the electorate, if pushed, will admit they don't like the EU: practically none care much.

I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest group on referendum day in June will be those not bothering to vote. The key question isn't "should we leave?" It's "do you care enough to vote?"

bilboburgler

My own view is I dislike it but will vote to stay in. Partially because Putin will be upset if we stay in. Still I don't think Greece, Romania, Bulgaria or Italy should be in (still no chance of getting a vote on that).

You might like this if it works on Fodors.

https://giant.gfycat.com/SilkyBoring...tleafminer.gif

PatrickLondon

And when you bear in mind that there are at least three different "Leave" campaigns all furiously arguing within and between themselves about which is to be the official standard-bearer, and some of them are still arguing for a No vote as a way of getting better terms to stay in, with a second referendum to follow....

bilbo's image is all the more appropriate.....

hetismij2

Only another four more months of this. I'm not sure I can stand it.

If I were to return to the UK I would have to rely on our Dutch pension, plus DH's minute UK pensions. I would not be entitled to any benefits or pension there. I may get a bus pass I suppose.
I couldn't afford to buy a house there, which would mean I was fighting younger people for a rental, which I probably also couldn't afford. Given the cuts in local government funding care for the elderly is being cut right back too, so as long as I was healthy and didn't mind not eating too often I guess I would be OK.

It's a good job I can take out Dutch citizenship whilst keeping my British citizenship soon (the Dutch don't normally allow dual citizenship). If Brexit becomes a fact then that is what DH and I shall do.
One son is OK, as he is married to a Dutch woman, but for the other two it could be more problematic, depending on how the EU decides to treat British citizens. They have lived here long enough that they could be come citizens too, but it would cost them a fortune to do so.
The thought of going back to registering with the police and having to regularly report in again is depressing to say the least.

traveller1959

Flanner, great analysis!

flanneruk

"My own view is I dislike it but will vote to stay in."

Precisely the view of my street Tory leaflet distributor.

While the media use us as the epitome of Middle England, delighting in the industrial scale of our constituency's Tory majority and the unfashionable views of our Tory activists, our local gauleiter (when not collecting for overseas aid charities or campaigning for easier asylum for Syrian refugees as all our "right-wing" local Tories routinely do) greeted me on Saturday with a worried look.

"I'd happily nuke the European Commission HQ", she said "but I'm terrified the electorate will vote to leave the EU, which is what the polls say will happen. I'm far more interested in campaigning to stay in than to keep the LibDems out in the May local elections."

When a hard-core Cotswold Tory lady forswears party tribalism, you realise the Brexit debate's not all tedium.

flanneruk

"there are supposed to be approximately the similar sum of Britons in other EU republics as there are EU residents in Britain."

And then there's the Brits in the other Northern democracies and in Spain...

Before we let all those ex-Commies in earlier this century, over half the member states of the EU were monarchies.

twk

A very interesting topic. As to the OP's question, about the only impact I see for traveler's is the short-term effect that Brexit (or the possibility of it, up to the referendum date) would have on exchange rates.

To me, it seems that whether it is the UK voting for Brexit, the migrant crisis continuing to grow exponentially, or the single currency finally pushing one of the southern countries over the brink, the EU's days appear to be numbered. A European free trade area was a great idea, but a federal European government, run by an virtually unaccountable aristocracy, wasn't such a good idea. Theoretically, the problems could be fixed, but if Cameron couldn't get anything more than the thin gruel he got in his recent negotiations with the rest of the EU, what reason is there to believe that the EU will face up to its problems before the collapse?

Hooameye

"European free trade area was a great idea, but a federal European government, run by an virtually unaccountable aristocracy, wasn't such a good idea."

In a nutshell. absolutely agree.

PatrickLondon

But you can hardly have a single market without some authority to establish some common trading standards - as the Blessed Margaret Thatcher pushed through in the 1980s.

There is no federal European government, nor will be, however much some people dream of it, and the decisions are, and will continue to be, made by the member state governments. If you don't want decisions fudged and over-run by corporate lobbying, then actually you're asking for more central powers for the union.

chartley

It's interesting that the exiters are refusing to say what the outcome of exit is likely to be, while accusing the remainers of scaremongering if they dare to suggest any possible downside if Britain leaves the E.U.

If Cameron loses, then he will probably have to resign as Prime Minister. The assumption has to be that one of the exiters will be invited to form a government and will offer good jobs to the others on that side. Thus Gove, Johnson, Smith, Grayling, Fox, etc will be in the ascendancy, and a nastier bunch you would be hard put to find. Freedom from unelected Brussels bureaucracy will be replaced by diktat from Westminster.

Since one of the exiters' objectives is to better secure Britain's borders, one possible outcome is that more visiting Americans (and others) would be denied admission to the country.

PatrickLondon

>>If Cameron loses, then he will probably have to resign as Prime Minister. The assumption has to be that one of the exiters will be invited to form a government and will offer good jobs to the others on that side.<<

There'd have to be a Tory leadership election in that event, and who knows who would win - and what the losing side would then do about it?

PalenQ

one possible outcome is that more visiting Americans (and others) would be denied admission to the country.>

Like Donald Trump who many wanted banned not long ago but I suppose he and his money would be just the new bunch's cup of tea - Don't care much for Cameron but the Boris types would be hard for even me a non-Brit to take - especially on the cause that it is tied to.

Britain I hope is better than this - better than the Donald Trumps of the world. What will the sun soon never set again on the new British Empire - Let's Make Britain Great Again! may ring just as well in the UK Midlands and WASPish areas just as Let's Make Amerika Great Again does for trump with the super American is always best patriotic crowd.

American and Britain are already great and great because in part of their embraced of immigrants.

Funny that Boris was born in the U.S., right and thus an immigrant himself, kind of.

Here's hoping Brits reject the hype to leave Europe and reason as flanner above does - vote to stay in the E U whilst holding his nose.

Is the NHS the next thing under attack by the new right-wing powers?

PatrickLondon

>>Is the NHS the next thing under attack by the new right-wing powers?<<

There is a great deal of suspicion of what the government (inners or outers) has in mind, given the impetus and legal favouritism given to encouraging NHS organisations to sub-contract various services, not to mention the question as to the extent to which the Transatlantic Trade Partnership currently under negotiation would give companies the right to sue for public policy decisions' impact on their business - and whether that means some US conglomerate would be allowed to argue that they are somehow entitled to expect to be able to take over public services like the NHS.

But this is a separate issue, since the TTIP negotiations are being handled by the EU collectively.