How Low Will It Go??
 

Anybody want to hazard a guess as to the value of the dollar versus the pound and the euro when it finally bottoms out?

The dollar closed at $1.3741 for €1.00 and $2.0274 for £1.00 on Tuesday.

Here is my rash guess: By December 1, the cost of €1.00 will be $1.42.

Hazarding a guess that the cost of a dollar will hit 1.50 euro by the end of the year.

Thank GOD the house in France was paid for 2+ years ago.

And here's to buying real estate in Croatia while you can still get an apt. on the ocean for under $75,000!

I am using a conversion factor of 1.45 in my expense spreadsheet for our upcoming trip to Italy in March 2008.

If its less than that I will be pleasantly surprised....one can always hope!

I could guess, but I'd rather not put a number in my head that would cause me to think "boy, never reached that, I should reconsider my trip".

Unless there is a dramatic shift (I'm from Canada, I'm used to euro being a LOT worse that what it is versus US$), I'm going anyways.

There are always ways to plan trips to be more economical, watching the exchange rates is just stress inducing, and when you calculate the difference it makes on a holiday budget, I let it go.

Assume that inflation will deflate the dollar value...but that your personal dollar income will increase to more than cover the increase in the value of the Euro and the BP.

This is scare-mongering of the worst kind and I request, no demand, that you cease immediately. :(

GSteed, nice try, but those of us who are retired do not find our incomes increasing!

And while I'm one who has always put down these rants about the cost of euros, I must say that being in Europe currently has been a bit of a shock. We've returned to favorite restaurants in Italy where a few years ago we ate and the euro cost 89 cents. Now that it costs $1.37, it is quite a change. A meal that a few years ago was 80 euros cost us $ 71. That same 80 euro meal now costs us $ 110. That's a 50% increase. Add to it the fact that prices in Europe have risen as well, that 80 euro meal of 5 or 6 years ago would now likely be more like 100 euro or more, so our actual cost in dollars at the same restaurant may have actually now doubled!

But that all said, so far this summer, our most expensive stay was in New York City. And while Italy may seem more expensive than it used to, I can hardly complain about the wonderful meals we've been having that still cost us well under $100 for two with good wine. And our wonderful apartment in Venice cost us far less than anything liveable we could find in New York.

Italy is a special case within Europe as well, esp. concerning prices. My former flatmate was from a small town on the Swiss-italian border (Swiss side) and told me that even 5-6 years ago, the Swiss used to got over the border to Italy for cheaper shopping. Now it is the other way round. The prices in Switzerland didn´t change a lot in this time.

This question validates my long-held belief that a person should invest in a mix of domestic and overseas-based stocks. Also, it's wise to examine the income mix of your domestic investments. That is, having a significant portion of a domestic stock's income originating overseas is a definite "plus." That way you automatically hedge the rise and fall of currencies. I have done this for decades, with significant success.

I am more than happy about it because I am an American in London getting paid in pounds and send investment money back to the US! Plus visits to family in the States are cheap cheap cheap.

I would hazard a guess and say that in the next year the UK economy is on its way down - The current dollar v £/euro siutaion isn't helped by the fact that UK interest rates keep going up - short term money floods into the UK pushing its value up.

However, I cannot see what is currently propping our economy up - I would say that structurally we are 1 year behind the US and the £ will fall over the next year.

It also does not help that the US government has spent about 500 billion in Iraq and that is killing our currency.