Trying to decide what to do about our Greece plans
May 17th, 2012, 04:50 AM
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Trying to decide what to do about our Greece plans
Hi all--
I read mokolea's recent post and your responses. We are also trying to use a crystal ball, and I wonder if you guys want to weigh in on some of my specific questions.
Our actual time in Greece in quite short. We arrive in Athens from the US on June 26 (on a Tuesday) and leave for Istanbul on June 28. We will stay one night in Greece at the end of our trip on July 11.
But given some of our concerns, we considering moving up our flight to Istanbul for the day we arrive in Athens or making other changes.
Here are our questions:
--Are you guys convinced Euros will still work even if Greece goes drachma?
We just did a count of what we Euros we have on hand, and we have around 750 E in paper (mostly 20s, 10s and 5s) and around 20 E in coins. That should be more than enough to cover meals and transportation if the Euro works, but...
--Will credit cards work?
I was counting on credit cards to pay our hotel bills. Wouldn't you know it? I splurged this time and our room will cost us 520 E for the first two nights.
--If credit cards DON't work, do you think dollars will work?
Back to the hotel issue...
--Am I stupid for keeping our two hotel bookings at a Euro contracted rate?
I read mokolea's recent post and your responses. We are also trying to use a crystal ball, and I wonder if you guys want to weigh in on some of my specific questions.
Our actual time in Greece in quite short. We arrive in Athens from the US on June 26 (on a Tuesday) and leave for Istanbul on June 28. We will stay one night in Greece at the end of our trip on July 11.
But given some of our concerns, we considering moving up our flight to Istanbul for the day we arrive in Athens or making other changes.
Here are our questions:
--Are you guys convinced Euros will still work even if Greece goes drachma?
We just did a count of what we Euros we have on hand, and we have around 750 E in paper (mostly 20s, 10s and 5s) and around 20 E in coins. That should be more than enough to cover meals and transportation if the Euro works, but...
--Will credit cards work?
I was counting on credit cards to pay our hotel bills. Wouldn't you know it? I splurged this time and our room will cost us 520 E for the first two nights.
--If credit cards DON't work, do you think dollars will work?
Back to the hotel issue...
--Am I stupid for keeping our two hotel bookings at a Euro contracted rate?
May 17th, 2012, 05:00 AM
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Hello Alessandra and Zoe!
I'm a greek myself, and although what I'm saying is mostly speculation, I have to tell you that I don't think it's possible in just one month to go back to drachma. The decision will have to be made after a lot of bureocracy, then the banks will have to print all the new notes etc etc. It won't happen overnight, it will take some time and probably during this time euro and drachma will coexist and be accepted (Same thing happened while we changed from Drachma to Euro).
BUT EVEN IF all this happen in one month, it is most probable that the locals will accept Euros or even Dollars, considering that Drachma will emerge as a really weak currency and will keep losing value over Euro/Dollar. In that case, getting paid in Dollars or Euros is really profitable, since there is a high chance you get more value the next day.
I'm a greek myself, and although what I'm saying is mostly speculation, I have to tell you that I don't think it's possible in just one month to go back to drachma. The decision will have to be made after a lot of bureocracy, then the banks will have to print all the new notes etc etc. It won't happen overnight, it will take some time and probably during this time euro and drachma will coexist and be accepted (Same thing happened while we changed from Drachma to Euro).
BUT EVEN IF all this happen in one month, it is most probable that the locals will accept Euros or even Dollars, considering that Drachma will emerge as a really weak currency and will keep losing value over Euro/Dollar. In that case, getting paid in Dollars or Euros is really profitable, since there is a high chance you get more value the next day.
May 17th, 2012, 05:12 AM
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Alessandra, I think you're overreacting and that your concerns, while valid, are overblown.
The most likely scenario would be a run on banks if the drachma were announced as a currency, in which case you might or might not be able to use ATMs, and paper currency would likely be in short supply. Banks might be closed temporarily to prevent bank runs, and ATMs might run out of currency.
But if you have either euros or dollars, you will be fine---probably better than fine---and credit card payments shouldn't be affected. If anything, I expect that more and more people might demand payment by credit card to ensure their cash flow. And it's entirely possible (and likely) that internationally owned hotels will continue charging in euros regardless of what happens with the official currency. This happens in non-euro countries even now.
But everything Stelios says is also correct. These currency switches cannot happen overnight, nor in a month. Regardless of the issues, they should not affect your trip, and you have more than enough cash to get you through 2 days.
I'm no economist, nor do I have a crystal ball, but rearranging a trip that's only 5 weeks out seems unnecessary to me. But I hope you get the reassurances you need.
The most likely scenario would be a run on banks if the drachma were announced as a currency, in which case you might or might not be able to use ATMs, and paper currency would likely be in short supply. Banks might be closed temporarily to prevent bank runs, and ATMs might run out of currency.
But if you have either euros or dollars, you will be fine---probably better than fine---and credit card payments shouldn't be affected. If anything, I expect that more and more people might demand payment by credit card to ensure their cash flow. And it's entirely possible (and likely) that internationally owned hotels will continue charging in euros regardless of what happens with the official currency. This happens in non-euro countries even now.
But everything Stelios says is also correct. These currency switches cannot happen overnight, nor in a month. Regardless of the issues, they should not affect your trip, and you have more than enough cash to get you through 2 days.
I'm no economist, nor do I have a crystal ball, but rearranging a trip that's only 5 weeks out seems unnecessary to me. But I hope you get the reassurances you need.
May 17th, 2012, 05:27 AM
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Alessandrazoe, I think all of your questions were answered in that other thread, on hypothetical questions like yours you can only get hypothetical answers. The cost of leaving the euro would be too expensive for the rest of the eurozone, that is why I don't think this will happen.
May 17th, 2012, 05:33 AM
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Hi AZ,
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said Wednesday that she was ready to discuss stimulus programs to get the Greek economy growing again and that she was committed to keeping Greece in the euro zone..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/wo...rkel-says.html
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said Wednesday that she was ready to discuss stimulus programs to get the Greek economy growing again and that she was committed to keeping Greece in the euro zone..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/wo...rkel-says.html
May 17th, 2012, 05:44 AM
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Doug, uh, I just re-read my post and I don't see any hysteria there. I see some VERY concrete and specific questions.
Which Stelios answered in a very nice tone of voice. Thank you, Stelios.
But one question still remains--if EUROS will be a premium in Greece, should I risk canceling my hotel plans and then trying to re-book at a lower rate? I have been arguing with myself over and over again about this.
One thing I have said to myself is that if I was willing to accept the hotel cost before, that what the heck, just be willing to accept the cost now, even if we would more or less be "taken for a ride" if one or more of these economic scenarios play out. It's not as though someone is going to give me a grade (although I always do enjoy an "A")on the money I paid for a room.
By the way, Flanneruk, my husband particularly loved your analysis of the situation on mokolea's post. He made me print it out.
Which Stelios answered in a very nice tone of voice. Thank you, Stelios.
But one question still remains--if EUROS will be a premium in Greece, should I risk canceling my hotel plans and then trying to re-book at a lower rate? I have been arguing with myself over and over again about this.
One thing I have said to myself is that if I was willing to accept the hotel cost before, that what the heck, just be willing to accept the cost now, even if we would more or less be "taken for a ride" if one or more of these economic scenarios play out. It's not as though someone is going to give me a grade (although I always do enjoy an "A")on the money I paid for a room.
By the way, Flanneruk, my husband particularly loved your analysis of the situation on mokolea's post. He made me print it out.
May 17th, 2012, 05:50 AM
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I know what Merkel and others are saying to the media, Ira, but one has to admit that it is to everyone's advantage to pour oil on the waters right now because speculation is just killing financial planning and analysis for not only European markets but also our own.
May 17th, 2012, 06:44 AM
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" I don't think it's possible in just one month to go back to drachma."
It simply isn't possible to retain the euro as Greece's national currency for a single second once the decision to withdraw is announced.
The New Drachma will inevitably devalue, so everyone would want to withdraw their euros, to keep under the bed or drive to Italy and deposit. There just aren't enough paper euros in Greece for this, and no bank would import them, given the loss they'd incur.
So the banking system will be frozen the instant the decision to withdraw is made. Deposits will be redesignated in New Drachmas, to devalue as the market determines, and the system unfrozen 2-4 days later. During this time, the euro will remain the only currency: once banks are unfrozen, the drachma will be the nominal currency (though there may not be any drachmas around). In practice, there'll be huge shortages of euros, and tourists will see a Turkish-style system where hotel rates are quoted in euros, but will be settled in drachmas at the relevant day's exchange rate - if there are drachmas in circulation by then.
The transition might go on for years: but the crisis starts at least at the moment the withdrawal decision is taken. The mass taking out of cash from banks has already started, and the possibility can't be ruled out that it might turn into a run on Greek banks, precipitating withdrawal before a new government is returned. The EU is likely to do everything possible to avoid that, since Europe needs the tough decisions in Greece to be taken by a Greek government with democratic legitimacy, but we can't be sure the EU can stop financial panic.
There are just too many imponderables (including the possibility that post June 17, the whole situation calms down) to try to finesse any of this. Just be prepared for a freezing of the Greek bank system any time this summer (my post yesterday was too optimistic about this), and have the cash about you to survive four days of closed ATMs and merchants suspicious of plastic.
The good news, I think, is that in a financial (or cash availability) crisis, Greeks will be just too busy to riot.
It simply isn't possible to retain the euro as Greece's national currency for a single second once the decision to withdraw is announced.
The New Drachma will inevitably devalue, so everyone would want to withdraw their euros, to keep under the bed or drive to Italy and deposit. There just aren't enough paper euros in Greece for this, and no bank would import them, given the loss they'd incur.
So the banking system will be frozen the instant the decision to withdraw is made. Deposits will be redesignated in New Drachmas, to devalue as the market determines, and the system unfrozen 2-4 days later. During this time, the euro will remain the only currency: once banks are unfrozen, the drachma will be the nominal currency (though there may not be any drachmas around). In practice, there'll be huge shortages of euros, and tourists will see a Turkish-style system where hotel rates are quoted in euros, but will be settled in drachmas at the relevant day's exchange rate - if there are drachmas in circulation by then.
The transition might go on for years: but the crisis starts at least at the moment the withdrawal decision is taken. The mass taking out of cash from banks has already started, and the possibility can't be ruled out that it might turn into a run on Greek banks, precipitating withdrawal before a new government is returned. The EU is likely to do everything possible to avoid that, since Europe needs the tough decisions in Greece to be taken by a Greek government with democratic legitimacy, but we can't be sure the EU can stop financial panic.
There are just too many imponderables (including the possibility that post June 17, the whole situation calms down) to try to finesse any of this. Just be prepared for a freezing of the Greek bank system any time this summer (my post yesterday was too optimistic about this), and have the cash about you to survive four days of closed ATMs and merchants suspicious of plastic.
The good news, I think, is that in a financial (or cash availability) crisis, Greeks will be just too busy to riot.
May 17th, 2012, 07:32 AM
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The EU is likely to do everything possible to avoid that, since Europe needs the tough decisions in Greece to be taken by a Greek government with democratic legitimacy, but we can't be no onesure the EU can stop financial panic.
I can only repeat, that no one can force a member to exit the Eurozone, if it happens it would be the decision of the new government, which i very much doubt.
There can't be any financial panic, as Greece is NOT in the market, nor is it expected to be in the next 2-3 years.
The markets can only attack other countries, that are not receiving help from the EU, such as Spain or Italy...
I can only repeat, that no one can force a member to exit the Eurozone, if it happens it would be the decision of the new government, which i very much doubt.
There can't be any financial panic, as Greece is NOT in the market, nor is it expected to be in the next 2-3 years.
The markets can only attack other countries, that are not receiving help from the EU, such as Spain or Italy...
May 17th, 2012, 07:44 AM
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Well, I thought I answered your questions in a respectable tone as well. But it seems to me what you're really trying to figure out is a way to stay in an expensive hotel for less money.
If it's an international chain, the way to do that would be through Priceline or perhaps Hotels.com or Expedia.com, which would allow you to rebook and prepay. But I wouldn't cancel any existing reservations unless you could actually get a cheaper rate by booking elsewhere.
But I don't think that has anything whatsoever to do with the exchange rate and just isn't going to be a factor for a trip so soon. As almost everyone has pointed out, Greece isn't likely to withdraw from the Euro in the next 30 to 45 days. This is likely a long-term decision.
If it's an international chain, the way to do that would be through Priceline or perhaps Hotels.com or Expedia.com, which would allow you to rebook and prepay. But I wouldn't cancel any existing reservations unless you could actually get a cheaper rate by booking elsewhere.
But I don't think that has anything whatsoever to do with the exchange rate and just isn't going to be a factor for a trip so soon. As almost everyone has pointed out, Greece isn't likely to withdraw from the Euro in the next 30 to 45 days. This is likely a long-term decision.
May 17th, 2012, 08:17 AM
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Uh Doug, again, pretty much a misread.
That question in my original post was the last of several questions. It was the only one that Stelios did not address--not that I felt he should have.
That question in my original post was the last of several questions. It was the only one that Stelios did not address--not that I felt he should have.
May 17th, 2012, 08:34 AM
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hit submit before I could finish...
To follow: "It was the only one that Stelios did not address--not that I felt he should have." So that is why I restated the hotel question in my response.
My mind is made up on that point and I need no other input on that question. Weadles, your reasoning was exactly the same as mine. I'm in the hotel I want in the location I want and I'm not going to play around with it.
In fact, I now feel OK with my plans as long as the Athens airport stays open, and I've seen nothing yet to indicate that it would close. There was one sort of unsettling vague statement in the other post that cards would not work in the event of the currency change, and that's when I thought, "Could that possibly be true?" I think the person may have meant "ATM card" not "credit card", and that's OK since we have enough Euros on hand.
Flanneruk...
Daughter in finance has been sending me latest research daily for the past week. Right now the biggest worry seems to be the ECB's exposure to a Greek exit. One often advanced reason why Greece and other countries simply could not leave the euro-zone is the potential damage to the institution at the core of the currency union, the European Central Bank.
But apparently, more research is showing that this might not be as big an obstacle as it looks. And everyone--I mean EVERYONE--is scrambling now that the research is showing that the hurdle just is not big enough.
To follow: "It was the only one that Stelios did not address--not that I felt he should have." So that is why I restated the hotel question in my response.
My mind is made up on that point and I need no other input on that question. Weadles, your reasoning was exactly the same as mine. I'm in the hotel I want in the location I want and I'm not going to play around with it.
In fact, I now feel OK with my plans as long as the Athens airport stays open, and I've seen nothing yet to indicate that it would close. There was one sort of unsettling vague statement in the other post that cards would not work in the event of the currency change, and that's when I thought, "Could that possibly be true?" I think the person may have meant "ATM card" not "credit card", and that's OK since we have enough Euros on hand.
Flanneruk...
Daughter in finance has been sending me latest research daily for the past week. Right now the biggest worry seems to be the ECB's exposure to a Greek exit. One often advanced reason why Greece and other countries simply could not leave the euro-zone is the potential damage to the institution at the core of the currency union, the European Central Bank.
But apparently, more research is showing that this might not be as big an obstacle as it looks. And everyone--I mean EVERYONE--is scrambling now that the research is showing that the hurdle just is not big enough.
May 17th, 2012, 09:01 AM
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Credit cards might not work at the time of a withdrawal announcement for two different reasons.
1. Straightforward uncertainty. This is all uncharted water (the theory, remember, has always been that it's impossible to leave the euro). So some merchants, inevitably, just won't trust plastic (I was once in Italy during a minor financial market hiccup, banks were closed and I couldn't get merchants to accept SWISS FRANCS!!!). Even if they ring the credit card company and are told the transaction's approved, how can they be certain that promise will be honoured?
2. The technicalities. Your €200 bill on your US Citibank card should get approved by First Shyster Bank of Greece's processing centre, at least nominally in Athens. Even assuming the ladies in Bangalore actually doing this are properly briefed (and there won't be time for that), what is FSBG getting approval for? Post-announcement, probably the now redenominated 200 drachmas. But the merchant thinks he's got approval for €200. Who owes who what? The answer's likely to be different in different cases: that hokey system where Americans get approval for the dollar equivalent, and Brits get approval in pounds, might suddenly look jolly interesting for example. And the Amex office in Athens will probably be helpful to Amex card holders. But in bank-free Aghios Demetrios, where they still process CC bills with a pull and push machine?
Anecdotes about previous devaluations just don't apply in this case, and - unlike the Czech split or the Irish split from the pound - it'll have to happen instantly. And the consequent devaluation of the drachma will be thought likely to be so serious, there will be real fear of making the wrong decision. The only sure prediction is initial uncertainty and chaos.
In which Greeks, ultimately, can say to their neighbours "I'll charge you x for now, but let's agree that when it's all settled, we'll work it out on these principles". With all the philoxenia in the world, that just won't be an option for a customer flying halfway round the world the following day
1. Straightforward uncertainty. This is all uncharted water (the theory, remember, has always been that it's impossible to leave the euro). So some merchants, inevitably, just won't trust plastic (I was once in Italy during a minor financial market hiccup, banks were closed and I couldn't get merchants to accept SWISS FRANCS!!!). Even if they ring the credit card company and are told the transaction's approved, how can they be certain that promise will be honoured?
2. The technicalities. Your €200 bill on your US Citibank card should get approved by First Shyster Bank of Greece's processing centre, at least nominally in Athens. Even assuming the ladies in Bangalore actually doing this are properly briefed (and there won't be time for that), what is FSBG getting approval for? Post-announcement, probably the now redenominated 200 drachmas. But the merchant thinks he's got approval for €200. Who owes who what? The answer's likely to be different in different cases: that hokey system where Americans get approval for the dollar equivalent, and Brits get approval in pounds, might suddenly look jolly interesting for example. And the Amex office in Athens will probably be helpful to Amex card holders. But in bank-free Aghios Demetrios, where they still process CC bills with a pull and push machine?
Anecdotes about previous devaluations just don't apply in this case, and - unlike the Czech split or the Irish split from the pound - it'll have to happen instantly. And the consequent devaluation of the drachma will be thought likely to be so serious, there will be real fear of making the wrong decision. The only sure prediction is initial uncertainty and chaos.
In which Greeks, ultimately, can say to their neighbours "I'll charge you x for now, but let's agree that when it's all settled, we'll work it out on these principles". With all the philoxenia in the world, that just won't be an option for a customer flying halfway round the world the following day
May 17th, 2012, 09:06 AM
#17
Flanner has it about right.
Don't try to rebook a hotel against a exchange rate that may or may not exist in the future, stay with the booking you have if you are happy with it.
Clausar I respect everything you have said on this and the other thread but I admit I have little time for the Guardian's analysis of finance (strangly round figure your honour). Still only time will tell, fasten your seat belts, take a firm hold of your towel and let's go into the future to see just how exciting it will be.
Don't try to rebook a hotel against a exchange rate that may or may not exist in the future, stay with the booking you have if you are happy with it.
Clausar I respect everything you have said on this and the other thread but I admit I have little time for the Guardian's analysis of finance (strangly round figure your honour). Still only time will tell, fasten your seat belts, take a firm hold of your towel and let's go into the future to see just how exciting it will be.
May 17th, 2012, 09:31 AM
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Flanneruk, I'm laughing so hard about your analysis. Am printing out for daughter and husband again.
Don't worry, biloburgler, I'm holding tight. I know I never let go of a Paris reservation once I snagged my ideal spot, so I'm not inclined to let go of this one.
Although it is terribly ironic that exactly two minutes ago I got an email from our first-stay Greek hotel for the first time since I booked months ago. Seems all of a sudden I'm getting a welcome package. Hmm.
Anyway, husband and I will bring all of our Euros--plus US dollars. Looking through the pile, I have some Czech currency, some GBPs and about 20 dollars worth of New Zealand coins. What the heck. I'll dump those in, too.
Don't worry, biloburgler, I'm holding tight. I know I never let go of a Paris reservation once I snagged my ideal spot, so I'm not inclined to let go of this one.
Although it is terribly ironic that exactly two minutes ago I got an email from our first-stay Greek hotel for the first time since I booked months ago. Seems all of a sudden I'm getting a welcome package. Hmm.
Anyway, husband and I will bring all of our Euros--plus US dollars. Looking through the pile, I have some Czech currency, some GBPs and about 20 dollars worth of New Zealand coins. What the heck. I'll dump those in, too.
May 17th, 2012, 11:52 AM
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I just returned from Greece and it seemed that more people were talking about Olympiacos' amazing win at the Euroleague Basketball Tournament last Sunday than their economic troubles.
I was in west Crete for all my time except for a last night in Athens and no one I talked to thought there was any chance that Greece would leave the euro as their currency. Of course, they could be wrong.
I was in west Crete for all my time except for a last night in Athens and no one I talked to thought there was any chance that Greece would leave the euro as their currency. Of course, they could be wrong.
May 17th, 2012, 12:54 PM
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Roger
80% of the Greeks want that Greece will stay in the Eurozone, they don't want to go to the drachma and finally they decided that they cannot handle the very very hard austerity measures that were forced from the EU and the IMF.
They want to renegotiate the agreement between Greece and the EU, and it seems, that with the help of Hollande in France, a door is now opening. Greece is not alone in that path, as more and more are raising their voice.
Generally speaking people are depressed, they have lost so far 30-40% of their income and they are afraid that it could get worst on the demand of new measures from the EU.
In a country that had an unemployment rate of 7-8%, it now went up to 22%, recession in the first trimester of 2012 increased to 6,8%, and at 15% in the last 3 years, which took back the Greek GDP to the level of 2004, suicides happen now on a daily basis, from people who cannot handle their everyday life, when Greece had one of the lowest suicide rate in Europe before.
These are the subjects that Greeks are talking about, even though the unexpected win of Olympiacos gave them a reason to smile for a while.
People may avoid to talk about the current situation with foreigners as they are mostly to proud, but should you visit Greece again soon, try to get in touch with Greeks, so that you can get information on what is going on in the country.
I am sure everyone of us Greeks has many stories to tell.
80% of the Greeks want that Greece will stay in the Eurozone, they don't want to go to the drachma and finally they decided that they cannot handle the very very hard austerity measures that were forced from the EU and the IMF.
They want to renegotiate the agreement between Greece and the EU, and it seems, that with the help of Hollande in France, a door is now opening. Greece is not alone in that path, as more and more are raising their voice.
Generally speaking people are depressed, they have lost so far 30-40% of their income and they are afraid that it could get worst on the demand of new measures from the EU.
In a country that had an unemployment rate of 7-8%, it now went up to 22%, recession in the first trimester of 2012 increased to 6,8%, and at 15% in the last 3 years, which took back the Greek GDP to the level of 2004, suicides happen now on a daily basis, from people who cannot handle their everyday life, when Greece had one of the lowest suicide rate in Europe before.
These are the subjects that Greeks are talking about, even though the unexpected win of Olympiacos gave them a reason to smile for a while.
People may avoid to talk about the current situation with foreigners as they are mostly to proud, but should you visit Greece again soon, try to get in touch with Greeks, so that you can get information on what is going on in the country.
I am sure everyone of us Greeks has many stories to tell.
