Fuel prices forecast: To double by this time next year. What do you think wil be impact on overseas American travel?
Jul 11th, 2008, 07:38 AM
#22
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>>Fuel prices forecast: To double by this time next year. What do you think wil be impact on overseas American travel?<<
limited flights, obviously...so, what was that about coach seats....???
limited flights, obviously...so, what was that about coach seats....???
Jul 11th, 2008, 10:42 AM
#23
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leads to "joe average"'s travel decrease. that leads to massive job loss at mid range hotels and b+b. that in reverse leads to further decrease of mid range travel within europe by europeans.
high-end travel won't feel impact as much b/c affluent people won't give up travelling as there is no need to do so.
5* will do fine. also their employees.
2/3* and b+b will struggle also their employees.
div
high-end travel won't feel impact as much b/c affluent people won't give up travelling as there is no need to do so.
5* will do fine. also their employees.
2/3* and b+b will struggle also their employees.
div
Jul 11th, 2008, 03:43 PM
#24
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The people I met in France last year said they'd seen a decrease in the number of American tourists, and that they did miss us (since they prefer us to the Chinese and Italians).
I feel like I've seen a similar dip this year. I keep expecting to have problems securing the cheapest, most sought after rooms in Italy and Paris for October, yet it hasn't been a problem. Everyone seems to have vacancies, and that hasn't been my experience in the past.
I feel like I've seen a similar dip this year. I keep expecting to have problems securing the cheapest, most sought after rooms in Italy and Paris for October, yet it hasn't been a problem. Everyone seems to have vacancies, and that hasn't been my experience in the past.
Jul 11th, 2008, 05:02 PM
#25
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You think oil is going to $300 per barrel? Fuel prices aren't going to double by this time next year. It's much more likely that they could be half what they are right now.
Obviously, if fuel prices did double, assuming it's not attributable to the dollar halving in value, it would seriously curtail not just travel, but all kinds of economic activity.
Obviously, if fuel prices did double, assuming it's not attributable to the dollar halving in value, it would seriously curtail not just travel, but all kinds of economic activity.
Jul 11th, 2008, 06:01 PM
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Well, from what they've been saying on TV, if Iran decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could double overnight. That would put it close to $300.
I imagine that the decline in the US $ has already stopped some Americans from traveling to Europe. But it has probably made some Americans look to other overseas destinations where the Dollar goes further.
I've been looking at airfares to Frankfurt the last couple of days and fares in late September early October are not bad at all -- about $750 from Houston. I also looked at the fares for May 2009 and they were less than $100 more. So, it doesn't appear that prices will be much higher in the short term if you can book soon.
I imagine that the decline in the US $ has already stopped some Americans from traveling to Europe. But it has probably made some Americans look to other overseas destinations where the Dollar goes further.
I've been looking at airfares to Frankfurt the last couple of days and fares in late September early October are not bad at all -- about $750 from Houston. I also looked at the fares for May 2009 and they were less than $100 more. So, it doesn't appear that prices will be much higher in the short term if you can book soon.
Jul 11th, 2008, 10:10 PM
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I still can remember the time (maybe 20 years ago), when the fuel price was close to 50 euro cents per liter in Germany.
Everyone was in armageddon mode, claiming that the world would come to a stand-still, that people would need to sleep under bridges, and that the forests would be used as surrogate source for heat as after WW2, if the price went one cent higher.
Today, the price is 1.5 euros per liter, six times as high as in those days. The current fab (believe it or not) are SUVs, larger station wagons, and not the much acclaimed 3-liter cars. And the only effect I can see is that people are driving bit slower on the motorways.
I think that people can and will adjust to almost any condition, and the lack of purchasing power re. hotels, restaurants, shopping due to the currently unfavorable exchange rate seems to me more important than airfares.
The tourists from Russia, by the way, are not necessarily the "new filthy rich", but rather some middle to upper middle class travelers, going to typical middle class destinations like Italy/ Adriatic Sea resorts, Canary Islands, or the Alps in winter. They do spend a lot on shopping, since most brand name merchandise is still less expensive in Western Europe than in Moscow or St. Petersburg. So it's not as if they had thousands of Euros in excess, but rather wait to buy the Armani jacket when in Italy rather than back home.
Everyone was in armageddon mode, claiming that the world would come to a stand-still, that people would need to sleep under bridges, and that the forests would be used as surrogate source for heat as after WW2, if the price went one cent higher.
Today, the price is 1.5 euros per liter, six times as high as in those days. The current fab (believe it or not) are SUVs, larger station wagons, and not the much acclaimed 3-liter cars. And the only effect I can see is that people are driving bit slower on the motorways.
I think that people can and will adjust to almost any condition, and the lack of purchasing power re. hotels, restaurants, shopping due to the currently unfavorable exchange rate seems to me more important than airfares.
The tourists from Russia, by the way, are not necessarily the "new filthy rich", but rather some middle to upper middle class travelers, going to typical middle class destinations like Italy/ Adriatic Sea resorts, Canary Islands, or the Alps in winter. They do spend a lot on shopping, since most brand name merchandise is still less expensive in Western Europe than in Moscow or St. Petersburg. So it's not as if they had thousands of Euros in excess, but rather wait to buy the Armani jacket when in Italy rather than back home.
Jul 11th, 2008, 11:37 PM
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Leisure travel is funded with discretionary funds. Quite obviously heightened gasoline prices are affecting them. As fuel prices rise, logistic costs will increase and also affect those travel funds. The European tourist infrastructure may now be greater than real demand needs. Lower in-Europe costs may result. These new prices can off-set increased fuel prices. Hence there will be no change in gross tourist class travel.
Jul 11th, 2008, 11:49 PM
#31
Just heard on Swiss TV that despite the high prices, gas consumption has gone up in Switzerland the last year.
I've tried to cut down on driving, am using the train more but consumption has still increased. Now that frustrates me!
I've tried to cut down on driving, am using the train more but consumption has still increased. Now that frustrates me!
Jul 12th, 2008, 08:42 AM
#33
My airline deals mostly with passengers from the Middle East, and even though we just raised all of our fares $50 per sector as a fuel surcharge, the number of passengers justs keeps going up and up. It is kind of scary.
Meanwhile, I would like to see the number of visitors to Paris drop by about 50%. You cannot imagine what a pain the last 20 years have been, what with all of eastern Europe flowing over in a giant flood, all of the Brazilians, Argentinians, Chileans, etc.; and of course the floodgates have also opened for China now. I need to wield a baseball bat just to make it to the metro on the Champs Elysées to get home from work. Total nightmare.
Meanwhile, I would like to see the number of visitors to Paris drop by about 50%. You cannot imagine what a pain the last 20 years have been, what with all of eastern Europe flowing over in a giant flood, all of the Brazilians, Argentinians, Chileans, etc.; and of course the floodgates have also opened for China now. I need to wield a baseball bat just to make it to the metro on the Champs Elysées to get home from work. Total nightmare.
Jul 12th, 2008, 10:35 AM
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When we went from Houston to Frankfurt last September, we paid $708 per person for our tickets. Now, the same ticket for September-October is $750.
If it ends up that I can travel to Europe in the fall, I will try to grab this great fare before it's gone.
If it ends up that I can travel to Europe in the fall, I will try to grab this great fare before it's gone.
Jul 12th, 2008, 09:07 PM
#36
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If the price of oil were to double in the next year I would predict a decrease in overseas American travel. I actually do not think that the price of oil will double but it is possible. Think of the following effects of such an increase in the price of oil:
Greatly increased cost of transportation. Decreased number of flights as airlines generally cut back flights with some airlines failing. Transportation is a major factor in a overseas travel budget.
Further devaluation of the dollar as the price of oil and dollar have been moving in opposite directions as their values seem linked. This would greatly increase the cost abroad in many places.
Increase in inflation. Will make the cost of living at home and abroad higher. Leads to less discretionary spending and higher cost of traveling.
Recession outside oil producing countries leading to job losses and loss of consumer confidence.
Higher interest rates in attempt to control inflation increases the cost of personal borrowing and hinders the housing markets. No liquidity for most people to borrow against their housing equity and travel etc.
I could go on and on as to what the consequences of
the price of oil doubling on American travel abroad but there is no doubt in my mind that it would lead to a great decrease. The increased costs for such travel combine with decreased economic prosperity to give us the perfect storm along with the insecurity many Americans have against traveling abroad to produce
a major decrease in Americans traveling internationally.
Greatly increased cost of transportation. Decreased number of flights as airlines generally cut back flights with some airlines failing. Transportation is a major factor in a overseas travel budget.
Further devaluation of the dollar as the price of oil and dollar have been moving in opposite directions as their values seem linked. This would greatly increase the cost abroad in many places.
Increase in inflation. Will make the cost of living at home and abroad higher. Leads to less discretionary spending and higher cost of traveling.
Recession outside oil producing countries leading to job losses and loss of consumer confidence.
Higher interest rates in attempt to control inflation increases the cost of personal borrowing and hinders the housing markets. No liquidity for most people to borrow against their housing equity and travel etc.
I could go on and on as to what the consequences of
the price of oil doubling on American travel abroad but there is no doubt in my mind that it would lead to a great decrease. The increased costs for such travel combine with decreased economic prosperity to give us the perfect storm along with the insecurity many Americans have against traveling abroad to produce
a major decrease in Americans traveling internationally.
Jul 12th, 2008, 09:33 PM
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I've booked a flight roundtrip Munich to London this fall. Flight time was supposed to be less than 3 hours. Now they suddenly informed me that their flights from Munich are all cancelled. Instead I should take a flight via Berlin bringing total travel time up to 9 hours altogether.
I asked, if I can be rebooked to the much faster flight from Nuremberg to London for free. They denied.
As long as one passenger for 4 more hours airbound wasting fuel, isn't worth a free rebooking, gas prices are still too low!
I asked, if I can be rebooked to the much faster flight from Nuremberg to London for free. They denied.
As long as one passenger for 4 more hours airbound wasting fuel, isn't worth a free rebooking, gas prices are still too low!
Jul 13th, 2008, 03:45 AM
#38
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I presume this is Air Berlin - have you considered Easyjet or Germanwings?
As well as BA, BMI & Lufthansa.
All of the above have direct flights
Anyhow back to the question
Looks as if the British are trying to avoid the Eurozone where the GBP has dropped 20% in a year.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/For...all.4274685.jp
As well as BA, BMI & Lufthansa.
All of the above have direct flights
Anyhow back to the question
Looks as if the British are trying to avoid the Eurozone where the GBP has dropped 20% in a year.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/For...all.4274685.jp
Jul 13th, 2008, 03:59 AM
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One reason the Brits are going to Turkey on Package holidays is the same reason as the as the Dutch go there - I have seen two week holidays, all inclusive in Turkey for as low as €58 pp. Yes, for two weeks, including everything, flight, food, drink the lot. Now I wouldn't want to go to an all inclusive resort, anywhere, but especially not Turkey, but you can see why many people would.
Turkey is extremely popular with Russians - they love the all inclusive resorts and spend the entire time in an alcoholic haze. That is why I would not choose to go btw.
Turkey is extremely popular with Russians - they love the all inclusive resorts and spend the entire time in an alcoholic haze. That is why I would not choose to go btw.
Jul 13th, 2008, 04:06 AM
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>>>>>
Looks as if the British are trying to avoid the Eurozone where the GBP has dropped 20% in a year.
>>>>>>
we hear a lot about this in the news now and i think it's been far overblown.
i don't know the stats but as far as attitudes are concerned, i don't hear a lot of people saying that they will avoid the eurozone due to costs. eurozone travel is still a basic and is the centre of gravity for us. yes people are going further abroad (turkey, middle east, north africa, etc) however, after paving over most of spain and a good part of greece with concrete holiday flats and fish and chip shops, we are increasing looking elsewhere to pollute...i mean explore. and this is largely to supplement our love affair with eurozone travel....not to replace it.
one can still eat a meal in greece or spain for about 60-70% of the cost in britain. and this is even in the british touristy areas.
this summer is turning out to be about the same as last summer so british travel is a non-starter for most.
fuel costs and environmental pressures/taxes will likely prevent large scale movement of britons' centre of travel gravity away from the eurozone, imo.
yes it's more expensive now but for an affordable, close holiday, what choice do we have?
Looks as if the British are trying to avoid the Eurozone where the GBP has dropped 20% in a year.
>>>>>>
we hear a lot about this in the news now and i think it's been far overblown.
i don't know the stats but as far as attitudes are concerned, i don't hear a lot of people saying that they will avoid the eurozone due to costs. eurozone travel is still a basic and is the centre of gravity for us. yes people are going further abroad (turkey, middle east, north africa, etc) however, after paving over most of spain and a good part of greece with concrete holiday flats and fish and chip shops, we are increasing looking elsewhere to pollute...i mean explore. and this is largely to supplement our love affair with eurozone travel....not to replace it.
one can still eat a meal in greece or spain for about 60-70% of the cost in britain. and this is even in the british touristy areas.
this summer is turning out to be about the same as last summer so british travel is a non-starter for most.
fuel costs and environmental pressures/taxes will likely prevent large scale movement of britons' centre of travel gravity away from the eurozone, imo.
yes it's more expensive now but for an affordable, close holiday, what choice do we have?
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