Dollar getting worse- buy euros now or next month?
Mar 5th, 2008, 07:59 PM
#1
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Dollar getting worse- buy euros now or next month?
We are traveling to switzerland and france at the beginning of April. I've been following the dollar-euro exchange now for 1 month with great anxiety. Should I go to a Travelex now and get a few hundred dollars or wait 3 weeks and go to an ATM at the aiport in Europe (I would need swiss francs and euros). Most of the posts recommend waiting to go to their respective country but will the dollar be even worse in 3 weeks?? And is it wise to not have ANY foreign money before leaving the states?
Mar 5th, 2008, 09:46 PM
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Tryint to beat international currency fluctuations is not an easy game to play...
How do you know the moron in the White House instead of saying how he is for a strong dollar will not finally get off his rear end and direct the Fed to do something to prop up the dollar? Or that the German Finance Minister, evidently a good friend of logos999, will finally realize that the push for a strong euro at the expense of the dollar will ultimately hurt the economy of euroland and lower interest rates? Or a myriad of other things that will, as it eventually will, point the dollar in the other direction? Will that happen in two weeks, next month, a year from now or whenenever?
Also, the rates banks charge for exchanging cash are generally 10 to 12% worse than that you get from an ATM exchange....the chances of the dollar going another 10 to 12% down in a month are not that great for the reasons noted above...at some point this will change.
Just sit back, relax and que sera sera.
How do you know the moron in the White House instead of saying how he is for a strong dollar will not finally get off his rear end and direct the Fed to do something to prop up the dollar? Or that the German Finance Minister, evidently a good friend of logos999, will finally realize that the push for a strong euro at the expense of the dollar will ultimately hurt the economy of euroland and lower interest rates? Or a myriad of other things that will, as it eventually will, point the dollar in the other direction? Will that happen in two weeks, next month, a year from now or whenenever?
Also, the rates banks charge for exchanging cash are generally 10 to 12% worse than that you get from an ATM exchange....the chances of the dollar going another 10 to 12% down in a month are not that great for the reasons noted above...at some point this will change.
Just sit back, relax and que sera sera.
Mar 5th, 2008, 09:52 PM
#3
DON'T buy € now or later. Just leave your money where it is in your bank acct and use your ATM card to get cash as you need it during your trip.
Even if the $ fell enough to cover all the fees you'd pay - unlikely - you still have the security issue of carrying all your cash.
Even if the $ fell enough to cover all the fees you'd pay - unlikely - you still have the security issue of carrying all your cash.
Mar 6th, 2008, 04:43 AM
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Hi C,
Don't try to get into the arbitrage game with less than $10M.
You should have bought Euro 3 years ago.
If you are concerned about not having any cash on arrival, get $100 in CHF and/or E at the departure airport.
This will cost about $4 more than on arrival.
Enjoy your visit.
Don't try to get into the arbitrage game with less than $10M.
You should have bought Euro 3 years ago.
If you are concerned about not having any cash on arrival, get $100 in CHF and/or E at the departure airport.
This will cost about $4 more than on arrival.
Enjoy your visit.
Mar 6th, 2008, 04:49 AM
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Skip one bottle of water and you will be o.k. on the change in rates on "a few hundred dollars".
Currency trading is a full time job, approach it with care. Commodity futures might suit you better,,,lol
Currency trading is a full time job, approach it with care. Commodity futures might suit you better,,,lol
Mar 6th, 2008, 05:31 AM
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UNLESS the dollar totally collapses, you won't save anything buying euros before you go. You'll pay so much higher fees and get a much worse exchange rate here than you will by waiting and using ATMs in Europe.
Though at the rate the current USA administration is printing funny money, I guess total collapse is a remote possibility.
Though at the rate the current USA administration is printing funny money, I guess total collapse is a remote possibility.
Mar 6th, 2008, 05:40 AM
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I bought Euros from our bank in 2005 for our vacation so I would have some when we got there Plus, I wanted to see what they looked like. After all was said and done.. I paid about 15% more ( poor exchange rate,fees and shipping charge) for them than if I would have just use the ATM at the Airport in Amsterdam. I don't think the Dollar will lose 15% of it's value by the time you go to Europe. I would wait if I were you.
Mar 6th, 2008, 07:00 AM
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Thanks for you replies, we've always waited until the destination country to get our money, but with the sinking dollar (my hotel selections keep getting more and more expensive week after week) and with another possible federal rate cut, I fear I will be paying dearly. My husband and I budgeted about $1000 for a 7 day trip spending money-not counting hotels and airfare but including tours/tickets/passes/museum entrance/food...etc, but that's less than 90 Euro/day, we're probably going to up the ante a bit.
Mar 6th, 2008, 06:51 PM
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If you want to purchase euros here, the best rate I have found is through Wells Fargo bank. They charge $.07 over the exchange rate or what you would get using an ATM overseas.
You can purchase on line if you are not near any offices. The fee for overnight service is $8.00.
I spent $2000 for euros last week and right now I am almost breaking even. I leave for Italy in 6 weeks. I don't know how it will work out for me only time will tell.
Lydia
You can purchase on line if you are not near any offices. The fee for overnight service is $8.00.
I spent $2000 for euros last week and right now I am almost breaking even. I leave for Italy in 6 weeks. I don't know how it will work out for me only time will tell.
Lydia
Mar 6th, 2008, 09:34 PM
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Nice going Lydia...but how comfortable are you in carryiing around $2,000 in euro????? And how do you know that next week, the eu will finally discover the overvalued euro is causing a lot of grief to many in euroland, if indeed it is overvauled, and drop interest rates?
Mar 7th, 2008, 04:00 AM
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<<Nice going Lydia...but how comfortable are you in carryiing around $2,000 in euro????? >>
I used $2000 USD (actually a little less) to buy euro I did not get 2000 euros. I have no problem carrying almost 1400 euros on the plane, in a limo and then hand almost half of it off to the apartment owner,
<<And how do you know that next week, the eu will finally discover the overvalued euro is causing a lot of grief to many in euroland, if indeed it is overvauled, and drop interest rates?>>
As I stated in my post: "I leave for Italy in 6 weeks. I don't know how it will work out for me only time will tell."
Lydia
I used $2000 USD (actually a little less) to buy euro I did not get 2000 euros. I have no problem carrying almost 1400 euros on the plane, in a limo and then hand almost half of it off to the apartment owner,
<<And how do you know that next week, the eu will finally discover the overvalued euro is causing a lot of grief to many in euroland, if indeed it is overvauled, and drop interest rates?>>
As I stated in my post: "I leave for Italy in 6 weeks. I don't know how it will work out for me only time will tell."
Lydia
Mar 7th, 2008, 04:08 AM
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First, use an ATM when you get there for the reasons cited above. Anyone who will sell you Euros here will overcharge you like you would not believe.
Second, adjust your attitude. You should focus on enjoying your trip, not on saving bits of money.
Third, if you are so interested in squeezing the last bit of value out of the dollar/Euro exchange, why on earth are you going to Switzerland, home of one of the most-overpriced currencies in the world? Even the Germans and French avoid going there on holiday for that reason.
Second, adjust your attitude. You should focus on enjoying your trip, not on saving bits of money.
Third, if you are so interested in squeezing the last bit of value out of the dollar/Euro exchange, why on earth are you going to Switzerland, home of one of the most-overpriced currencies in the world? Even the Germans and French avoid going there on holiday for that reason.
Mar 7th, 2008, 04:24 AM
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Hi C,
>My husband and I budgeted about $1000 for a 7 day trip spending money.
That's 649E today.
If the Euro goes to $1.65, it will be 606E - only 6E pd less.
That's about 1 glass of wine.
..................................
L reports,
>They charge $.07 over the exchange rate or what you would get using an ATM overseas.
This morning, with S&H, WF is offering E at $1.62.
If you bought E from an ATM and paid 1% to Visa/MC and 2% to your bank, it would be $1.58.
>My husband and I budgeted about $1000 for a 7 day trip spending money.
That's 649E today.
If the Euro goes to $1.65, it will be 606E - only 6E pd less.
That's about 1 glass of wine.
..................................
L reports,
>They charge $.07 over the exchange rate or what you would get using an ATM overseas.
This morning, with S&H, WF is offering E at $1.62.
If you bought E from an ATM and paid 1% to Visa/MC and 2% to your bank, it would be $1.58.
Mar 7th, 2008, 04:34 AM
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Playing the arbitrage game with only little money needed up to today has been a sure bet. Little work, nice sum of money made Let's see how we're doing with 1.55 today!
I'm not recommending it to anybody!! but this one made 50% today (DE000DR0U2T4). It's cheaper than roulette and the $ going down is a sure bet, imho
Let's see how we're doing with 1.55 today!I'm not recommending it to anybody!! but this one made 50% today (DE000DR0U2T4). It's cheaper than roulette and the $ going down is a sure bet, imho
Mar 7th, 2008, 06:05 AM
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<i>eu will finally discover the overvalued euro is causing a lot of grief to many in euroland, if indeed it is overvauled, and drop interest rates?</i>
The ECB base rate is the same 3% as the Fed Funds rate.
<i>Don't try to get into the arbitrage game with less than $10M.</i>
I don't think arbitrage means what you think it means. Arbitrage is when you take advantage of differential pricing for the same asset across different markets. For example:
>>>Suppose that the exchange rates (after taking out the fees for making the exchange) in London are £5 = $10 = ¥1000 and the exchange rates in Tokyo are ¥1000 = £6 = $12. Converting ¥1000 to $12 in Tokyo and converting that $12 into ¥1200 in London, for a profit of ¥200, would be arbitrage. (from wikipedia)>>>
You are talking about buying Euros now, in the hope that they will appreciate in the future, which is something else entirely.
All of my nitpicking above aside, I agree with those that feel that buying Euros now due to concerns about fx rates is a waste of both your time and your money.
The ECB base rate is the same 3% as the Fed Funds rate.
<i>Don't try to get into the arbitrage game with less than $10M.</i>
I don't think arbitrage means what you think it means. Arbitrage is when you take advantage of differential pricing for the same asset across different markets. For example:
>>>Suppose that the exchange rates (after taking out the fees for making the exchange) in London are £5 = $10 = ¥1000 and the exchange rates in Tokyo are ¥1000 = £6 = $12. Converting ¥1000 to $12 in Tokyo and converting that $12 into ¥1200 in London, for a profit of ¥200, would be arbitrage. (from wikipedia)>>>
You are talking about buying Euros now, in the hope that they will appreciate in the future, which is something else entirely.
All of my nitpicking above aside, I agree with those that feel that buying Euros now due to concerns about fx rates is a waste of both your time and your money.
Mar 7th, 2008, 06:33 AM
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I'd agree with the above. If you go to the bank and buy euros, you are automatically locking in a loss on the transaction (versus using ATM) and hoping that the currencies will shift in your favor.
Mar 7th, 2008, 06:36 AM
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They're different types of arbitrage i.e. You can differentiate between "time" and "location". Location as described above in your post. Time as in future- and forward-arbitrage. The latter meaning to "place a bet" on what you think the exchange rate will be. In college you'll be pesented the classic arbitrageur that buys where it's "low" and sells where it's "high". This way the arbitrageur helps to level price differentials between markets.
