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Coronavirus in Italy (merged threads)

Old Mar 9th, 2020, 04:22 PM
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Canceled with sadness

OK with ALL of Italy now on lockdown... I canceled our April 8th trip to Sicily.

I am so sad for Italy. I am sad for all the Italian grandmothers and grandfathers at risk. I am sad for our last family vacation before our kids go to college. But the situation just seems to be getting worse and not better. And because I live in NYC I don't want to risk bringing additional virus to an already overtaxed health system in Italy. Good luck with your decisions and plans.
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Old Mar 9th, 2020, 04:46 PM
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RubyTwins,
I feel bad for you that you had to cancel. You obviously didn't have a choice considering all of Italy is on lockdown, but it is still depressing to cancel a family trip you have planned for a long time. Last April I had to cancel a trip to Croatia because of severe arthritis in my hip, and move up my hip replacement surgery. I didn't have a choice but I was so sad. Luckily, we were able to reschedule for last September. Can you plan an alternative domestic trip? A road trip so that you can use your car and not take public transportation?

We have an upcoming trip to France in April to visit our daughter and grandchildren. We are in "wait and see" mode right now. I will be very, very sad if I can't see my grandchildren, who I have not seen since last October.
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Old Mar 9th, 2020, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Sue_xx_yy View Post
Bvlenci, it's a pity they don't publish the percentage change. I sincerely hope it is leveling off.

My sympathies for everyone who's had to cancel travel plans. But Europe will still be there for you to return to it.
It's not leveling off. Italy now has more cases than South Korea and the entire country is now quarantined.
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Old Mar 9th, 2020, 10:22 PM
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I would be curious to know how many people are still arriving in Italy for long scheduled trips. You probably can't call them "tourists" anymore since you can't really tour anything, but obviously there are plenty of people coming for family visits -- or not.
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Old Mar 9th, 2020, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by kerouac View Post
I would be curious to know how many people are still arriving in Italy for long scheduled trips. You probably can't call them "tourists" anymore since you can't really tour anything, but obviously there are plenty of people coming for family visits -- or not.
All of Italy is now on lockdown as of this morning, but flights are still running from the UK on BA, easyJet and Ryanair to all parts of Italy. I cancelled my April Sicily trip yesterday but easyJet is still selling tickets and has not offered to cancel my flight! Hopefully, we might hear more today.
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Old Mar 9th, 2020, 10:48 PM
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Most of April is after the current closure period. They aren't going to cancel those unless it's an issue of empty planes
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by menachem View Post
It's not leveling off. Italy now has more cases than South Korea and the entire country is now quarantined.
​​​​​​
I'm very sorry to contradict you, Menachem, but the rate of increase of new cases is not increasing, and hasn't increased in three days. The number of cases would continue to increase even if the rate of increase were falling. I'm not at home now, but when I return, I'll post the numbers. I do remember that the rate of increase was 27% three days ago, 25% two days ago, and 24% yesterday. The difference is too small to be statistically significant, but it's not an increase.

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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 03:33 AM
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Originally Posted by menachem View Post
... the entire country is now quarantined.
There is not a quarantine, as that would confine people to there homes, ill or not.

As of today, all of Italy is subject to travel restrictions. You're required to stay in your town of residence except for essential travel: work, health issues (including health of dependent relatives), and shopping for things not available in your own town. Restaurants have restricted hours, and tables have to be at least one meter apart. Shops are open, but people are supposed to enter one at a time and maintain a secure distance.

​​​​​​​Within your town, you can circulate, following the "rules of engagement". Most shops are open; many of them are leaving the doors open so that no one has to touch anything to enter.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 03:34 AM
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Here are the numbers I have for the last three days. The denominator is the total number of known contagions from the beginning of the crisis. (You can't use number of active cases, which is what most sources are citing, because it omits those who are no longer infected and those who have died.)

Total cases
6th March.... 4636.. 7th 5883.. 8th 7375. . 9th 9172
New cases...... ----.........1247........ 1492 ........1797
% daily increase............. 27%.......... 25%........... 24%

The numbers are from the daily bulletin of the Protezione Civile, which is issued daily at 6PM.

It's still a high rate of increase, of course, but without restrictions on assembly and movement, it could be much worse. If each infected person passed the contagion to one other person, the rate of increase would be 100%.

I

Last edited by bvlenci; Mar 10th, 2020 at 04:21 AM.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 03:45 AM
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Thanks for the update. BA has cancelled all flights to all of Italy as of today until April 4th. I am concerned about the travellers that are there and due to fly home and how they will manage. I wonder if they will send flight to bring them home?

Last edited by OReilly64; Mar 10th, 2020 at 03:47 AM.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by bvlenci View Post
Here are the numbers I have for the last three days. The denominator is the total number of known contagions from the beginning of the crisis. (You can't use number of active cases, which is what most sources are citing, because it omits those who are no longer infected and those who have died.)

Total cases
6th March.... 4636.. 7th 5883.. 8th 7375. . 9th 9172
New cases...... ----.........1247........ 1492 ........1797
% daily increase............. 27%.......... 25%........... 24%

The numbers are from the daily bulletin of the Protezione Civile, which is issued daily at 6PM.

It's still a high rate of increase, of course, but without restrictions on assembly and movement, it could be much worse. If each infected person passed the contagion to one other person, the rate of increase would be 100%.

I
a calculated mortality rate of 4.7% points to many more infected cases than are currently counted.

For those who want to follow: https://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/...c82fe38d4138b1
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 05:40 AM
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Interesting report in the Corriere della Sera
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_...41af0f23.shtml
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 06:31 AM
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I read the article (via Google Translate). Both instructive and moving. Required reading for all.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by bvlenci View Post
​​​​​​
I'm very sorry to contradict you, Menachem, but the rate of increase of new cases is not increasing, and hasn't increased in three days. The number of cases would continue to increase even if the rate of increase were falling. I'm not at home now, but when I return, I'll post the numbers. I do remember that the rate of increase was 27% three days ago, 25% two days ago, and 24% yesterday. The difference is too small to be statistically significant, but it's not an increase.
Isn't that because the testing policy has changed. The high number of deaths points to higher numbers of infected than are reported. We see this by the periodical corrections.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1

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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 12:56 PM
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A few posts earlier neckervd posted an article that got me thinking.The deaths in Italy are heavily weighted by those over 80 years old. I realize now from that article that those 80 years old are chosen for lesser treatment due to their age when the hospital is overwhelmed. Since those over 80 are less likely to survive, they are undertreated leading to an increased death rate,and that self-fulfills the the statistics. Circular reasoning when death is on the line.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by neckervd View Post
Official figures published 1 hr ago:

INFECTED PEOPLE PER REGION (official statistics = tip of the Iceberg NOT rounded numbers):

Lombardy:3372
Emilia-Romagna, Marche : 1362
Veneto, Venezia Giulia, Alto Adige (Dolomites):708
Piemonte, Liguria (5Terre), Aosta: 431
Tuscany, Umbria: 191
Campania (Naples, Amalfi): 100
Lazio (Rome) and Vatican: 81
oltre Eboli:80
SICILY: 51
I don't know why you lump Le Marche with Emilia Romagna. The two regions have little in common other than the Adriatic Sea. Le Marche has 394 total ccontagions as of today, including those who have died or recovered, and almost all of those are from Pesaro Urbino, which is on the border with Emiliia Romagna.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 01:36 PM
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Isn't that because the testing policy has changed. The high number of deaths points to higher numbers of infected than are reported. We see this by the periodical corrections.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/a...c82fe38d4138b1
I don't put much stock in that page, because it's almost entirely based on the number of current cases. It can go up or down based on factors that have little to do with the change in the number of contagions. I prefer the cumulative number of contagions since the beginning of the epidemic.

To make an extreme example, imagine that today there are 1000 cases. 400 die before tomorrow and 100 are declared cured. Tomorrow the number of cases is 500. Does that mean things are getting better? If instead 100 died and 400 were declared cured, the number of cases tomorrow would still be 500, but because of a very different set of events.

I use this site, which has the total number of contagions. Although they don't show the increase at the national level, you can just subtract the total number from the day before. At the regional and provincial level, they show the number of contagions and the increase.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/malat...1bf8b498.shtml

(Scroll down to see the detailed numbers.)

To see the updated record, you can search for "Bollettino xx marzo coronavirus", where xx is obviously the date.

Today is the first day I've seen a decrease in the number of new contagions at the national level. The number of new contagions was 977, versus 1797 yesterday. It's quite a big difference, if it's not a fluke. You can see that the two graphs on the right show a marked decline today. The top graph, "Andamento nazionale" is the total number of present cases, not including deaths and recoveries. For the reasons I've mentioned above, it's not my preferred measure. The second graph, "Incremento giornaliero degli attualmente positivi" is the increment in the number of presently infected." This shows a very marked decline, but it doesn't measure new contagions, and, as I said above, it could go down if a large number of people died.

The numbers I've been quoting are based on total cumulative contagions and new contagions.

The number of deaths obviously continues to go up, because the people who die are people who got infected as long as a month ago. (Patient 1 in Italy, a 38-year-old man, has just today been released from intensive care and is breathing on his own, with supplemental oxygen, for the first time.) I don't know when he was diagnosed, but he's been in intensive care since 22 February. The number of deaths shown on that page linked by Menachem is a number awaiting verification by the ISS (health ministry).

The death rate is hard to calculate, and can't be done with the data being made public. You can't divide the number of deaths by the number of known cases, at least not until the contagion is in the past and everyone who was going to die has done so. To simplify the explanation, you can get a good estimate of the eventual death rate by calculating the number of deaths today among people diagnosed n days ago, and cumulating those daily rates. The cumulative death rate at 30 days would be close to the eventual death rate. I've been seeing all sorts of estimates of the death rate, but without knowing how they were calculated, I wouldn't put any confidence in them. It seems we can safely say the death rate is higher than that of the flu.

At the beginning, Italy was more or less carpet testing in the areas where there was a known contagion, which means that the number of verified cases may have been much higher than in a country with a similar level of contagion but with more restrictions on testing. At the beginning, more than 73% of the people tested had a negative result. To me, that means they were overtesting. It was a waste of test kits that might run short in the future. The last I heard, they now were testing, 1) people who had close contact with a known case; and 2) people with symptoms (fever and chest cough). I haven't heard of any recent changes in that protocol. The change in testing protocol wouldn't affect the numbers I've been keeping track of for the past five days. I began doing this because I was very dissatisfied by the kinds of numbers beging reported.

Last edited by bvlenci; Mar 10th, 2020 at 01:41 PM.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 09:58 PM
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Unless you have respiratory issues you aren't even supposed to go to the hospital. A fever and a cough isn't enough. You're basically being told to just stay home.

Honestly if this was a normal winter how many of us would bother going to the doctor if all we had was a mild cough and a slight fever? Most people with the virus seem to have that or less.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 10:00 PM
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Originally Posted by AJPeabody View Post
. I realize now from that article that those 80 years old are chosen for lesser treatment due to their age when the hospital is overwhelmed. .
Nobody has stated that happened and there has been a general backlash against the idea.

Yes the average age of the dead is quite high. It's also true most already had serious health issues. More than just being elderly. But people aren't being selected on the basis of age.
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Old Mar 10th, 2020, 10:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Traveler_Nick View Post
Nobody has stated that happened and there has been a general backlash against the idea.

Yes the average age of the dead is quite high. It's also true most already had serious health issues. More than just being elderly. But people aren't being selected on the basis of age.
I read an interview with an emergency services doctor in the hospital of Bergamo, which is experiencing an enormous number of patients. He said they were doing a triage, and giving priority to patients who were most likely to survive. Age is one factor they consider.

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_09/coronavirus-scegliamo-chi-curare-chi-no-come-ogni-guerra-196f7d34-617d-11ea-8f33-90c941af0f23.shtml

Last edited by bvlenci; Mar 10th, 2020 at 11:14 PM.
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