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anticipating Italian autostrada traffic in July to catch ferry

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We need to travel south from Sondrio (2 hrs north of Milan) to Piombino - a 5 1/2 hr trip with no traffic - on Saturday, July 4. We will be catching the ferry to Elba from Piombino. I have no idea how to estimate what the traffic will be like. I know that generally there can be a lot of traffic on Italian autostrade during summer weekends. I would like to buy the ferry ticket now, since the ferries get booked up at the weekends. Does anyone have any tips for how long that trip might take on a Saturday in July? Would it be worth booking an early ferry Sunday and staying overnight near Piombino to ensure we don't miss our ferry? We have reservations on Elba starting the 4th for a week.

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