Airfare to France-can I do better?
 

I've been checking airfares for several months from Portland, OR to Paris in mid-September 2005. The lowest fare on every major airline has consistently been $750, which sounds pretty good to me for September. I'm tempted to book it now (because I'm so Type A) and worry that the fare will either go up or sell out before I can grab it. I'm a nervous nellie and don't have the guts to wait for last minute deals. Do you also think this is a pretty good fare or could I do better if I wait a bit longer?

Thanks.

dabodin:

Far be it for me to tell you what to do. Go ahead- book it. Yet, if you can trust yourself just a little and wait, about 8-6 weeks before your departure date, the fares will start drifting downward. Within 3-2 weeks of departure, there should be a final sale (chances are likely, they will sporadically appear before as well). I'll wager you can always pay $750, but you should be able to get a flight for hundreds less- Keep checking the major search sites (expedia, orbitz) then compare what you find there against the fares at the major airlines' websites. It takes a little of your time, but you can save a lot, that is, if you can wait.

<<I'll wager you can always pay $750>>

Well, I'll dissent. I don't know the PTL market specifically, but I think you should have &quot;zola&quot; wager money on <i><b>your</b></i> behalf that you won't get stuck paying more by waiting so close to the date of your departure.

I think that if you have not found your best fare by May 1, your chances of having to pay more only get worse. And in the next 10 weeks, I would give no better than 30% probability that you can save $50-100 - - versus a 50% probability that you will see a gut-wrenching period of week after week when you can no longer find your $750 fare. I'm not saying that you have to buy now.

But I think you have considerable peace of mind to gain, with little risk that you are &quot;overpaying&quot; to any substantive degree.

I'd focus more on how certain are you that you know your desired dates, and the (slim?) possibility (how well do you know this?) of something coming along that will make it impossible for you to go then, at all.

Best wishes,

Rex

dabodin, I am going to Italy in September, and like you, check flights daily and worry about them. The advice from the board is to chill out (tough, I know!) They have been advising people going in June that even they are still ok waiting!

I must say from my reading, that some people will tell you to jump on that, its not a 'deal' fair, but its not far off. Especially from the WC!

Good luck - and know there are fellow worrywarts out there! KAMG

Travelphile: Not to appear to be too stupid, but what is the &quot;WC&quot;?

We travel to Europe at least once a year, and from my experience, September is a pretty popular month to go and even though it's considered the shoulder season, I haven't seen anything under $750 (except from consolidators) for years!

It's a crapshoot. If you can't tolerate the downside, don't play. Buy early and don't look back.

(Unless, of course, the stress caused by paying too <u>much</u> by buying too early will dog you all the way to Paris and back, in which case I suggest that you don't go at all.)

Boy, you have me completely pegged! But I'm really not that bad. Once I make the decision, I don't look back and obsess over it endlessly.

Thanks for all the advice from everybody who responded.

The question is: where have you checked these fares? Have you looked at consolidator sites such as www.onetravel.com and aggregator sites such as www.mobissimo.com?

Yes, I've checked those sites and all the usual suspects. The cheapest price is on Continental's site, base fare of $650 plus just under $100 for taxes and fees.

In context here, WC is surely West Coast.

Dabodin-doing a quick search via Mobissimo, using hypothetical dates of 9/18-9/25, PDX-CDG routing, I get a lowest fare of $717, all taxes incl, on US Air from Cheap Tickets. I think this is going to be about as good as you can expect. And so in this context, I couldn't agree MORE with what Rex said (surprise!) Sure, you can wait, but don't be surprised if you're kicking yourself hard for not taking this fare when you had the opportunity. Security fee add-ons (among other issues affecting air fares in the coming months) are being debated in Congress as we speak, and my guess is they will go through, and the fares will go up as a result-often fares start rising in anticipation of such fees going into effect. One thing I can say with reasonable certitude: the fares you're looking at now for a PDX-CDG routing aren't really going down for September travel, and they could well go way up.

rex:
like I said, &quot;far be it for me . . .&quot;

I have just had a hardy laugh from this...

Sorry dabodin, Rex is right, I meant West Coast (WC) not water closet, LOL.

Thanks Rex for clearing it up so eloquently, as it made the laugh much hardier!

I don't fly from the west coast, so I have no frame of reference, but I would guess that if all the major airlines are offering a price similar to that you cite, then it isn't that great a deal. Bear in mind that this is probably a non-refundable ticket, which means that if you later have to change any aspect of your flight (such a leaving a day later, or coming home a week later) you will have to pay a substantial fee to change the ticket. Also, if you buy now, you give up any opportunity to find a sale, and sales are not uncommon.

Certainly, there is also a possibility that the fare will go higher if new fees are enacted or the cost of fuel soars, but there are always competitive pressures that tend to minimize increases.

If you are really happy with this fare, and want this settled now, buy it and don't look back.

If not, my suggestion would be to set a fare that will delight you and look for sales. Be prepared to buy instantly if you find the perfect fare, as sales are usually for a very limited number of seats. If your perfect fare hasn't come up before two months prior to your departure date, buy then at the best fare, as my experience is that prices start to climb at that time, and get really high a month before the departure date.

One can't be certain of the future, of course, but the two-month rule has served me very well for a number of years.

dabodin, I booked San Diego to Paris mid-Sept 2004 for $720 with all taxes/fees included. Hope this helps, if only to provide a frame of reference. I personally think that you have a fair deal. Peace of mind is something I greatly value too. Sure, this may not be the BEST deal but if it's good enough for you (and it seems to be), don't look back and just start planning!

I've been checking airfares for the same time frame, except flying from the Midwest, and it's been running about $650 rt. So for $50 more each way, look how much more distance you are covering than I am--go for it. The only thing is, once you book, don't look back. Be happy with the deal you got and don't torture yourself with indecision!

Check www.onetravel.com. I just found an open jaw NYC-Paris-SFO for $660 leaving in May and coming back in July. RTs from NYC were going for $601. You might be able to find a similar break.

I went ahead and booked the $750 fare on Continental. From the W.C. (!) it really is a pretty good deal, and all the connections worked out well. Portland is a small market and sometimes you have to go through odd places with long layovers. I'm very happy with my decision, and I won't second guess myself. Our 3 week trip is now set in stone and there's no way any of the dates can change. But just in case, I bought travel insurance, something I've never done before.

Thanks very much to everyone who responded. It really did help me decide!

clevelandbrown:

A well-spoken and reasoned response.

Hi dabodin and tout de monde, are these flights direct to Paris? I usually go Air France because it is direct from Boston.

No, cegalechanta! The only direct flight to Europe from Portland is Lufthansa to Frankfurt, and we've only had that one for a year.