Airfare Predictions... May/June 2014?
 

Hi All,

In the prelim planning stages for our family trip to Italy next year and wondering what folks think re: pricing. Our dates are not flexible, unfortunately, so we're locked into 5/23-6/9. Currently, I've found RT airfare with one stop from DFW to FCO for $1412.50. We didn't travel this year due to the new baby, so I'm admittedly a bit out of touch on pricing. This doesn't seem insanely high since we paid approx $1250 in 2012 for the same flight at the same time of year (purchased those ticketsi in Dec, about 5 months before departure). Anyone care to venture if you think it will drop over the next few months or if this is as good as it's likely to get? When you're buying 6 tickets (my parents are joining us), even a $100 change in fare can make a big difference.

Thanks for your thoughts!
Best,
TA

I would expect airfares to remain similar to what they were this summer. Like I'm sure you already do, keep a weekly eye on the fares and be prepared to purchase tickets at anytime, especially beginning in the fall. If you find a fair price, jump on it. Long gone are discounted air fares to Europe. Good luck and happy travels to you!

kayak.com is a good resource. NOBODY ever knows if prices will go up or down (if they did they would be billionaires). For our trip this past July I booked 330 days out and got what I thought was a decent fare. I checked about a month prior to departure and there were still seats and the price had only risen about $200.

It is IMO a crap shoot.

I'm with Dukey. Sign up for airfare alerts on kayak to know when/if prices drop. I booked flights with ff miles and the cost differences ranged from $107 to $1,200 per person for taxes and fees. Good luck!

With the consolidation of the major airlines (US Air/American should be the last for awhile), you can only expect the cost of international and domestic flights to continue to go up.

All of the major players are cutting capacity by going after the business class traveler. US Airways eliminated first class seating and several rows of Envoy seats on their international flights in order to install their new lay-flat seats. As a result, the cost of tickets, including those who fly coach, have had to go up to cover the lost revenue in Envoy and First. It’s the same with every airline in the business.

Flying using FF points is becoming nearly impossible unless you're lucky enough to find one or two seats available at least 330 days out. The cost of using mileage to upgrade has also gone up the last few years. At one point we were able to upgrade to Enjoy one-way for 30,000 miles, but over the last couple of years that changed and now you have to pay anywhere from $300 to $800/ticket, plus the mileage, depending you the destination and time of year.

May has been the watershed month for trans-Atlantic airfares the last couple of summers. By the end of the month fares bounced up by several hundred dollars and stayed there until mid- to late September. Specific fares can sway back and forth and someone will always spot a bargain for one day out of a single city, but someone will win a lottery too.
I was a winner late last winter when I landed a very nice points itinerary from the midwest to Europe at the end of June, supposedly peak season, on Delta. The key was to avoid that airline's dysfunctional Internet SkyMiles section and speak directly to a points agent by phone.

This is my go-to site for monitoring industry prices in the 9 mos leading up to any of my trips...
But like everypne says, its a crapshoot, and you buy when you are no longer confortable waiting!

http://matrix.itasoftware.com/

Thanks all!
I'll check out the ITA software website, and I just signed up for Kayak alerts.
I'd love to get it for closer to $1300/ticket; still unsure if that is reasonable for the time of year.

To get full use out of the ITA site, it does require a good working knowledge of the various commands. If you're feeling overwhelmed by the itasoftware site, just use Kayak.

HI TA---as always, nice to see you around!

I have struggled with this on almost every trip we have made and it is such a thorny issue. When we went to the UK this past May, our dates were not flexible either and we, IMO, overpaid for our 3 point trip, Boston-Edinburgh, London-Boston. However, for us it was important to have it settled and as you say, the prices could go up! We were paying for the peace of mind of having it done. I think that when one is traveling at a peak time, you just have to accept that you (probably) cannot wait and see. Another issue is needing 6 tickets which can be harder and harder to obtain the closer the time comes.....

My other experience (on domestic flts, anyway) is that often when I put in a query on the airline's website and I only put in a single ticket, I get a certain price quoted. When I put in 2 tickets, that individual tkt price often goes up! I imagine, though, that you have searched for 6 when you were looking.

I guess I am saying that I think that time of year and number of tkts suggest a need to act sooner rather than later. But who really knows? Just my 2 cents.....

Boun Viaggio!

Monitor air fares yourself , do NOT rely on Fare Alerts. I have register for fare alerts and ended up FINDING the fare myself and NEVER geting the drop-in-price notice. That said, Kayak is good in reacting to the market and the fares are usually the latest and available. I have used ITA software for the last 8-9 years for price averages and fluctuations. Based on this site, I would say that 2014 price levels will be equal or very similar to 2013. I have travelled to Europe every May for the last 20 years and the last couple of years the price hike has been incredible. The $1200's levels should be starting to show around Jan-Feb 2014. I would advise you set a threshold and be ready to shoot. Other option is combine transatlantic flight to a major European hub (London, Dublin, Munich) and then use a low-budget intraEurope airline such as Vueling, RyanAir, Air Berlin, EasyJet. Use http://www.lowcostairlinesguide.com/en/ as reference. Always allow a minimum of 2 hrs if connecting with a different airline.

Thanks for the additional suggestions all! I will definitely look into price differences based on how many tickets I drop into the search function.

We will be traveling with our (at that time) special needs 3.5 yr old son, and our 1.5 yr old baby, so switching airlines isn't really a feasible option.

Whenever we do purchase, I'll report back what price we found.

Oh, and hi socialworker! Hope all is well with you! :-)

I signed up for email alerts from major Euro airlines (AF, KLM, BA, Lufthansa, Alitaila) and this year got $800 fare (YYZ-CDG-PRG-YYZ) on AF for May 13. This fare was being sold in mid December 2012 by AF, KLM had sale in mid Jan 2013 and then none after. Can't say that this is a pattern but I would wait till winter to purchase for May/June.

Hi All. Found this conversation when doing some on-line research re buying tickets from Newark (NYC) to Marseilles, France, for summer 2014 (leave May 30, return June 28). Dates are not really flexible. I started looking a week or so ago, and the prices are going up. But Viajero2's comment above confirmed my suspicion that prices would probably go down again, and start rising in Feb. But of course, I'm very nervous about it. Part of me just wants to pull the trigger right now, and as some have said, pay for the peace of mind. Before I do, any other comments on this? Is it generally the case the fares will go down again, before going up again???! Thanks

I check constantly. Dublin airfares are great right now. I think it is crazy that one flight left Orlando to Dublin via Frankfurt for 650.00 but when I checked to go to Frankfurt only on the same airline it was 1100. I just booked two tickets to Munich for 1150.00 but it was Delta and of course had to buy that four inches of extra leg room for 89.00 each way and insurance. I am hooked on economy comfort with them.
I paid 1400 for Florence tickets last May. They just never went down. I bought in Jan and they stayed the same price through April. It is a crap shoot.

Allianz told me that you should purchase your trip insurance through them and not with your airline ticket. Different prices and coverage. I had to use my insurance last trip due to a death and learned a lot!

I've used Yapta.com for years to monitor flight costs before and after I've purchased. In the last three years, we've paid pretty much the same for RT flights to Europe (open jaw, Rome/Prague in 2011) to South Africa a year ago (RT to Johannesburg) and for next Feb to India (open jaw, Delhi/Mumbai) from Raleigh-Durham, NC. $1200pp We, too, are hooked on Delta's economy comfort.

I wouldn't expect any prices to go down more than $100/200 per RT ticket, unless you just luck into something. If you are dealing with set dates, pick the flights that look most to your advantage (fewer stops, better departure/arrival times, etc.) and track them for a couple of weeks to a month, if that makes you feel better, or just buy them now.

The days of being able to grab a ticket at 30% off just because it is Wednesday morning seem to be long gone. More consolidation, fewer flights, expensive fuel, plus many airlines have simply needed to replace old aircraft. Old retired folks like my DH and I, who don't have to worry about job responsibilities, might be able to take advantage of a special low fare to a specific destination just because we haven't planned a trip anywhere in particular for the year...like I said, that's just lucking into something.

Not a TexasAggie but Longhorn and looking for Austin to Venice and return of Rome to Austin. Going in Oct 2014, so checking pricing and seating now to know when to grab a good fare. Was about $1200 and checked the same flight a few weeks later and down to $1086 but think it has gone up again. This way I try to get a feel of how it might go. I use all fare alerts, looking myself, and other options suggested by other travelers. I even try flying out of Houston or Dallas and NYC but never works out as cheap as Austin. Good luck.

Good luck. I bought tickets for two weeks in Europe beginning next June 30th. They cost pretty much exactly what I expected and I'm glad I bought them so i no longer have to worry about that aspect of the trip.

To jan47ete

It's too early to look for Oct 14 now; lots of carriers hasn't even published them yet. Can try hipmunk.com; it's a good fare crawler but it doesn't produce miracles and only reports fares at the moment. Regular advance purchase fare for AUS-VCE should be in the $1200-1300 ballpark. Bigger airports (e.g. HOU) that serviced by major airlines with non-stops to Europe (e.g. BA or United) may produce better results if there is a sale in the future.

Just to update, prices dropped on Sunday and we finally jumped and paid approx $1480/ticket (open jaw DFW-FCO, VCE-DFW). Within 2 days, the price was back up $375 to over $1800/ticket.

P.S. total saved over buying last July is about $50/ticket

Just goes to show you Jump when you feel right..Don't wait for the big drop it may never come. have a good trip!!!

TexasAggie - We were in the same predicament. Dates were set and could not be changed. Airfare hovered around $1355 for a couple of months in the Fall but I had never paid that much and couldn't do it. Then they shot up to $1600 and I thought what did I do, I just screwed up big time. Did my random weekly check a couple of weeks ago and prices were down to $1297 so I jumped on it. Was afraid to wait any longer. Unfortunately this is 2 stops each way but the layovers aren't too bad so I am OK with it all.

Moral,

If you are not flexible about dates.
If you have a group.
If you are bringing children.

Being able to get tickets is more important than $100/ticket.

:)

((I))

In the past 5 years we have found transatlantic flights to dip around 4 months prior to departure but this is UK / US return. We have never paid more than $1200 any time of the year.

It is a simple game just like the casino. Find a decent price comparison site, we always use Skyscanners. Check in every week, look at the movement and at some stage dive in a buy them. Do not look at the prices once you hav bought just be happy with your decision.

I will never forget buying tickets from the UK to Nassau return. We were very happy to have got £550 return for a popular time of year. The family next to us had paid £850 each. Never forget the chap behind chipping in with the fact that he had paid £186 for one ticket.

Last spring I paid $1270 airfare from Seattle to Frankfurt, plus $157 from Spokane to Seattle, for a total of $1427. The only thing that happened to fares during the period when I first started checking them to the time when I purchased was that they went up slightly.

Well said, ira, and more more succinctly.

The $50/ticket savings is nice but I'm not certain I'd gamble again since the temporary price drop only lasted about a day at most (which we easily could have missed, and then would have been paying a heck of a lot more per ticket than if we'd purchased last summer)

US Airways did not HAVE "First Class" seating on flights to Europe..it was all Envoy and coach. The lie flats probably took some seats away from coach.

I just have to say that I get so happy when I see you posting, TexasAggie! I remember you fondly from my earliest days here!

Hi socialworker! How are you? Great, I hope! All is well here :-). Older son (3 yrs) is making great, amazing progress in therapy and the baby is almost 1 and doing fantastic. We took last year off from traveling and are thrilled to be back at it this year. I hope a fun trip is in store for you as well in 2014! Thanks for the "hello!" :-)

<i>Flying using FF points is becoming nearly impossible unless you're lucky enough to find one or two seats available at least 330 days out. </i>

You have to know how to work the system.

I was able to book a FRA-MSP business class award on Air Canada/Lufthansa for 50k US Air miles. Trip was booked last month for travel in March.

Hi sparkchaser,
Wow, that's incredible - business class for 50k miles! Any tips?

Yes.

If you don't have access to ANA's award search, use United's award search and make sure that you don't limit the results to United only. You just need to be flexible with your dates.

I'm sorry. I misspoke. It was 100k. Which is still a good deal.

Sorry for the confusion.

And this is why we need an edit function.

Well, we've been repeatedly told that we need to know how to "work the system" but I can say from experience that "the system" is not going to give you some cheapo rate when it already knows or at least thinks it knows just how many seats are going to go begging. It is that old "capacity controlled" thing and unless there are seats available you can work your butt off without favorable results.

In the past I have used the dedicated airline phone number for people at my level (Gold) and those people look and look and look. Sometimes it works as when we flew through Toronto from the East Coast US to get to Rome; other times not. And let's face it: the airlines know when people want to travel in any particular market and the most popular ones aren't going to have a lot of FF seats when the company thinks they can sell them at a better price.