milaedg

Hello Seasoned Travelers!! I am asking for advice on when best to purchase our tickets for travel in August this year. We are traveling from SFO to Venice, then fly out of Geneva or Zurich back to SFO. I have been watching the airfare since January and I noticed this past week that the airfare has gone up about $50-$100 (depending on the airline). My question is should I wait until about 6 weeks before travel which some travel experts recommend or purchase now before it goes even higher. Our travel dates are not flexible, so I am afraid to wait until June. Thank you!

PalenQ

ah this question was covered on a cable new business program just the other day - answer hard to tell but some gurus have figured out 50-60 days ahead of time may be optimum - I suggest you set what you are wishing to pay then if that price is available hop on it.

djkbooks

No one can answer that question. Perhaps you should have booked before fares rose. They may come down, they may not.

With dates that are not flexible, it's usually best to book while you can find convenient connections.

Fares are based on current/anticipated fill rate and August is high season.

If you wait until June, you risk full flights, inconvenient connections, leftover seats.

PalenQ

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/tr...fare.html?_r=0

an April NYTimes article that addresses when to buy European airline tickets.

djkbooks

<<some gurus have figured out 50-60 days ahead of time may be optimum>>

Others have said 81 days for international flights.

But, none of those gurus will be the ones paying a lot more by waiting if fares continue to rise. And, for high season, they're more likely to rise than come down.

Regardless, history is no indicator of future fares. The airlines are constantly changing their schedules and adjusting their algorithms to minimize costs and maximize profits.

oedipamaas

I also would not base your decision solely or even mostly on an average booking window a travel expert recommends. There's no guarantee that it will apply this year or to your route or airline.

PalenQ

One thing for sure it seems anyway that airlines are cutting capacities so they are not flying empty seats to Europe - in the old days yes you could get nice discounts as the flight approached if empty seats remained but reports indicate airlines have cut capacities and have fewer empty seats to hawk at bargain prices.

BigRuss

Recent rise in oil prices = higher fares.

greg

This so call "so many weeks ahead" rules are based on many assumptions. Even with that, it is still a probability game. If the price goes down on flight the day before and theday after your flight, they will triumphantly claim they were right. However, it is completely irrelevant info as far as you are concerned. One crucial assumption for perishable commodity like airfare is that there will be excess capacity that need to cover the fixed cost. If there is no excess capacity, there is no need to offer discounts. August is a peak season.

Another factor is whether you are interested in airfare alone or the cost of the entire trip. Do you have all the accommodations already lined up during this peak season or are you waiting until you have the actual flight in case you might not get the flights you expected? The accommodation prices march steadily up if you wait. So even if you get a good airfare, you can lose out in accommodations cost to negate any possible gain in the airfare area.

milaedg

Thank you all for your swift responses! So, I think I will bite the bullet and book the trip. It appears SAS offers the cheapest fare with a 23-hr layover in Copenhagen - even taking into account a $160-hotel. I just love how helpful this forum is. Thanks again.

bvlenci

I rarely book more than two months ahead, but I usually start watching fares about three months ahead. The exception is when I'm traveling at a *very* busy season, such as during the Christmas period. I check the seats that are left on the flights I want, and if they start to get scarce, I buy.

I sometimes take last-minute trips, and I can usually find something affordable. I don't worry about minor price differences, and I'm open to using different airports, taking a train to the final destination. What I really don't like are long layovers, especially after a long flight. However, 23 hours in Copenhagen sounds like fun! It's a lovely city, or was when I was there 25 years ago.

Southam

Note that the interesting NYTimes article, which reads like a guide to picking a horse from the Racing Form, is nearly four years old. If I could get any trans-Atlantic price like four years ago, I would jump on it in an instant. My non-scientific and indeed messy survey of prices for this summer, from the Midwest, suggests paying 20% more than last year and approaching 50% from four years ago. Yes, a few cracks for prime time are beginning to show, but on flights with long layovers and unhappy departure times. The bankruptcy era is ending as the big consolidated airlines return to profitability by stricter control of volume and resulting higher prices. Bargains are only relative to that new reality and will depend on hard research and luck. That's not the happiest frame of mind for approaching a vacation.

DebitNM

We are flying later this month from SFO to CPH on SAS and the next on to Rome with Easyjet. I booked in August when SAS had a sale. Best rule is book when you see a price you can live with and then DON'T look back at website,

milaedg

DebitNM, good advice. I am already kicking myself for not booking on SAS two weeks ago when they were having a sale. Thanks.