Cruiser

U.S. health inspectors boarded the Carnival Fascination in Miami on Monday December 2nd to investigate another seaborne outbreak of suspected Norwalk-like virus that sickened 194 people during a weekend cruise.<BR><BR>Now this is getting scary!

Cruiser2

I agree!<BR>My husband and I are planning our first cruise next year. From the responses on this forum, I gather that the number of ships with viral outbreaks this year is not typical. Very worrisome.

Lew

Yes, the outbreaks of gastrointestinal outbreaks is not typical--they are LOWER. That is what the CDC is saying. [See the CDC briefing of this afternoon.]<BR><BR>I know you won't believe that in a slow news time, the media needs something to say. Two years ago, sharks attack were the hot topic, and it turned out the number of shark attacks had actually decreased...oops. Again, look at the questions asked by the reporters at the news briefing searching for drama.<BR><BR>I know you believe the CDC, cruise lines and terrorists are in conspiracy.<BR><BR>Therefore, let's all run on emotion, ignore facts, and stomp our feet.<BR><BR>From my perspective, the more of you who panic and don't book cruises, the better prices I will find.<BR><BR>

Travis

If 200 people on a ship getting sick is less than normal, I would hate to see normal! To me if there was a one in five chance that I would get sick in a given week by going on a cruise,I would not go.<BR><BR>Typically by staying home there is a 98% chance I will not get sick with the flu!

Paul

Lew, interesting observation but I don't think it's that simple. I've read this site for a number of years and I don't remember any other time when so many cruises were being cancelled. Or are the cruise lines overreacting now because of the unwarranted (in your opinion) publicity. I doubt it.

Mike

Stay away from cruise ships unless you want to get sick!

Lew

Well, Paul, for some reason I will rely more on CDC statistics than your anecdotal information. Have you read the CDC briefing of this afternoon?<BR><BR>All of this flap is media hype. Nothing more. Most people who have responded on this board have quoted the media as their source.<BR><BR><BR><BR>

Grumpy

If you have any doubt about the motivation of the media, consider the following:<BR><BR>Reuters, in an article about HAL being sued for the Norwalk outbreak on the Amsterdam, stated:<BR><BR>&quot;The virus is spread through food and water&quot; [thereby implying negligence on HAL's part].<BR><BR>The CDC has repeatedly said the virus is a person-to-person contact virus. But that is not good enough for Reiters, who is &quot;making the news.&quot;<BR><BR>

Paul

Yes, I read the CDC briefing &amp; had read it before my first post. Please, let's be specific and accurate. According to the briefing, the numbers of people on cruises getting sick is greater now than in prior years, but the percentage is lower because many more people are cruising now than before...although curiously the CDC has not yet come up with the specific percentage. <BR><BR>So is the problem worse now or not? That's a subjective issue that depends on your perspective. And again, why are lines cancelling cruises? Are they doing it simply because of bad reporting? Again, I doubt it.

maryann

10 years ago, my husband got sick on a Cunard ship. Last year, people got sick on the Noordam. No reporting then.<BR><BR>People come on a ship with a variety of things, wether they know ahead of time.<BR><BR>People catch it from the friendly atmosphere, in line at the buffets, and water,tea stations, etc. So the CDC,etc are on the job and we all have to be more watchful at work, home, airplane and ship.

Lew

Paul--I did not misrepresent the CDC briefing. It is the incidence that a statistician looks at, not the absolute cases. <BR><BR>There is nothing subjective about statistics. What you are trying to do is twist them to your advantage.<BR><BR>What expertise do I have...I am an independent statistician, have been contracted by the federal government, and have taught statistics on the university level.<BR><BR>Now, just one other interesting piece of information, from a CDC paper in 2000, before the media was chasing sharks or viruses.<BR><BR>&quot;The intestinal virus is named for Norwalk, Ohio, where researchers first identified it in 1968. Norwalk or a related virus infects more than 23 million people in the United States every year, causing diarrhea, nausea, and stomach cramps, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.<BR><BR>&quot;Scientists consider Norwalk virus no more than a nuisance in the United States. It's distressing but survivable. Natural antibodies form during a bout with the virus, and some of these linger indefinitely.&quot;

Poptart

I see what you are saying, Lew, but here is my question: if this is lower than normal, why are the ships reacting now and they have not is past sailings?<BR><BR>I am sure that there are people who get stomach flu on every cruise. There is a phenomenon of people who are overworked and get sick when they are on vacation. But I don't know if cruises have ever had a couple of hundred people sick at the same time. And if this is routine, why are cruises being cancelled? NO cruise company would cancel a cruise and lose millions of dollars for routine illness.<BR>Clearly, cruise food and water sanitation need to be studied and someone needs to get to the bottom of how this virus is being transfered. Yes, it is not the ebola virus, but there is nothing like a bout of stomach flu to ruin a vacation.

Lew

I can only speculate on cruise company activities. I could be a cynic and say they are being responsible as they are being peered at or I could be an altruist by saying they only are interested in their passengers well being. My suspicion is that since they are not quite sure what they are facing, the cruise lines have made the business decision to do everything they can to eliminate the virus. The problem is the next passanger who is incubating the virus as they board starts the cycle all over again.<BR><BR>First of all, let's look at what is &quot;knownquot;<BR><BR>1. The CDC has rulled out food, feces, and water as a carrier. Are they correct? I can not judge, but think their knowledge is greater than my knowledge.<BR><BR>2. The CDC has established a 2% level to identify a disease outbreak. In the case of the Amsterdam, that means 29 passengers of the aproximate 1400 must exhibit symptoms. The number was larger on the Amsterdam. <BR><BR>Even though the number of cases has increased, the rate is lower than previous years as more people are sailing . This is calculated by dividing ALL of the cases during a given week by the TOTAL number of passengers cruising that week.<BR><BR>3. All cruise ships are enclosed spaces with much human contact, similar to hospitals, airplanes, schools, malls, churches, etc. No one to my knowledge knows the life of the Norwalk virus [have read 5 days, 3 weeks, and once 6 months] but what is known is it is transferred by human contact.<BR><BR>And yes, a bout of Norwalk sure can freak up a vacation. Had it on NCL in Quebec City a few years ago [way before media attention]<BR><BR>

Monique

Hi,<BR>I´m Monique from Zandvoort, the Netherlands. We cruise regularly and will do so again with Christmas. We have never been sick on a ship before. But... we also read newspapers and ofcourse we talk about it. I think it´s strange and surprising that the sickness appears on several cruise lines and not just one. I don´t panic at all and really still want to go, but like others I´m curious. Can somebody tell me what the CDC is ?

xyz

<BR>CDC= Center for Disease Control

Ken

Funny, just heard a report that the CDC is saying case of &quot;Norwalk&quot; or other intestinal viruses are up in schools and nursing homes. I guess those stories don't have the glamor of cruise ship illness.<BR><BR>If the rest of you hide in your homes, the prices will be lower for those of us with the courage to open the door in the morning.

Jim

They just announced today that a forth cruise ship has 100s of sick passsengers. This is getting scary!

CaribbeanGreen

What is it, Jim?<BR><BR>It's not on any of the cruise news websites or CNN.com....

Lew

Jim--Your post did nothing to tell us what was happening. <BR><BR>From the Boston Globe this morning: &quot;More than 100 passengers aboard a luxury cruise liner sailing in the Caribbean are battling a nasty intestinal virus, US disease investigators reported last night, marking the fourth ship in a month to experience an outbreak of an illness that ruins vacations and leaves stomachs churning. <BR><BR>Passengers on the Oceana began reporting classic symptoms of the Norwalk virus - vomiting, diarrhea, and nausea - within hours of the ship setting sail Friday from Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, according to the chief of the vessel sanitation program at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By last night, the CDC was preparing to dispatch a rapid response team to investigate the outbreak on the ship, which was carrying about 2,000 passengers.&quot;<BR><BR>Not 100s as you purported but about a hundred...or a 5% rate. Well above CDC guidelines, but the sky is not falling.<BR><BR>

Grumpy

I'll bet its them Al Queda folks, just trying to ruin our weekend.