Storms Expected this weekend?
 

The weather forecast is calling for thunderstorms for St. Martin for the next five days. Does anyone know if this generally means rain settling in for all five days or will it come and go? My daughter is worried about hurricanes. I've been to the hurricane websites and it doesn't look like anything bad but I also don't have any real expertise in reading hurricane data.

There are no tropical storms/hurricanes in the Caribbean in the forecast. There's a tropical storm Debby but she's still off the coast of Africa...way way out there, not threatening land.
I've learned not to worry about weather forecast for the Caribbean. It always shows thunderstorms every day no matter where you go. If it does end up raining, it's usually short showers. Tell your daughter not to worry and have a great time.

It is extremely rare for any of the islands to get day after day of straight rain. It's hard to predict what little disturbances might pop up over the next several days, but from what I see you shouldn't have any problem aside from a possible shower or two.

This time of year, however, it's wise to keep an eye on the weather since we are getting into the most active few weeks of hurricane season. That's not saying to expect anything (fingers crossed), but it's wise to be alert as to what's going on. I only say that because I've known of people who have been on St. Maarten when a hurricane was approaching and they had no earthly idea until it was too late to get out.

Go and enjoy....you'll be fine and I'm sure the weather will be, too! :)

On-line weather forecasts for Caribbean island almost always predict rain, especially if it is a hilly or mountainous island. That's because it's the tropics and it is not unusual for it to rain somewhere on the island for sometime every day. What the websites don't tell you is more often than not these showers are very brief and very localized - often it can be raining in one location and be bright sun 1/4 mile away. The rarely impact anyone's vacation. That's not to say there haven't been prolongued periods on occasion but rather full days of rain are not the norm.

As for hurricanes, Tropical Storm Debby has formed off the Cape Verde island and all the computer models show it tracking northward into the Atlantic. It is not a threat to St. Martin nor any other Caribbean island. There is another "tropical wave" moving eastward across the southern Atlantic located about 500 east of the Windward islands but it too should have no affect on St. Martin and probably will not even strengthen until it is in the Eastern Caribbean (again no threat to St. Martin).

I did read on an internet news site that there is a storm brewing in the eastern Caribbean. Not developed enough yet to be on the National Hurricane Center website, but it could be a wet few days.

JeanH: You're right. That latest disturbance is expected to become a named storm (Ernesto). We should know this afternoon if it becomes a tropical depression and become a named storm in the next 24-36 hours. Projected long term forecast has it heading toward Cuba/Jamaica and end up in the Gulf....water temps are pretty warm there, meaning the storm will likely strengthen....but again paths can change, etc... Not near St. Martin for now (courtesy of the weather guy at my station). :-)

Hey!!! >:o What's all this talk about sending some fellow named Ernesto our way!!

(:| :-( :'( :`( :-((

Oh lawksi I hope this fellow goes away...I've been glued to the weather channel tropical updates...

*oh groan*

TD # 5 has formed southwest of Martinque.
It is forecast to eventually become Ernesto.
It is well South of St. Martin.
It has been hot and hazy here on St. martin, with very little rain.
there are alwsy tropical showers on all of the islands so when you see a weather forecast stating showers, don't worry.
enjoy!

TD#5 will not affect St. Martin nor any of the Leeward Islands (well over 500 miles away). It may get close to Jamaica by Sunday afternoon.

And to put things into perspective, let's not forget that last year right around this time, Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Really, so far this year, it's been a fairly mild hurricane/storm season as these things go.

and...Andrew hit Florida around this time in 1992. First named storm of the season that one was.

Here at The Reef in Cayman we are closely monitoring TD5, as it may pass close to us on Monday.

The good news is twofold :
1 : We are VERY well prepared. We were well prepared before Ivan, but now we are even more prepared, so we are not worried, just ready to kick in whatever level of plan is appropriate.
2 : We have this year extended our Hurricane Guarantee so that guests may cancel up to 48 hours before scheduled arrival, or else simply shift their arrival date a day or two.

We never worry about things I can't control... but we DO prepare.

Tom,
I ALWAYS worry and prepare! :)) I hope this fellow doesn't strengthen.

I don't mind the tropical storm/category 1 if we just get some (not too much!) rain. We badly need the rain here in Jamaica.
But if it strengthens...oh boy...not gonna be funny! I'm in the middle of a roofing job! :-o

JAGIRL and Tom Cayman
we're all watching this storm and hoping it passes you guys with no problem.

I, too will be watching and praying that this one steers clear of you both, JAGIRL and TomCayman.

thanks you guys. :)

Thx, and I appreciated the many kind thoughts as Ivan sat on top of us for 24 hours in Sep 04.. even though it was quite some time before I got back online... when I did, it warmed my heart :)