Hurricane danger?
 

I just heard on the Weather Channel that a hurricane is approaching the USVI by Saturday or sooner. I'll be on St. Thomas Wed. (8/15) and St. John for a week after that. Anyone heard when it's going to hit USVI? I just caught the tail end of the broadcast. Robert59

Talk about scaremongering!
A tropical depression is heading west across the Atlantic, and while it looks like it will be heading way south of the USVI, no-one knows.
Again, it may or may not turn into a hurricane.
It is quite cool in the Caribbean at the moment, and a high sea temperature is required for a hurricane to form.

You can follow it here:
http://www.sxmcyclone.com/

Robert, relax. There is a TD (tropical depression) - not even a 'cane yet - out there with the Caribbean in its sight but who knows for sure where it is headed and when or even IF it will develop into himmicane Dean. Keep alert and your resort or villa management will advise any precautions or prepearations that you might need to make. I always take flashlights with me no matter when I go and you may find they come in handy if it is a bit inclimate.

relax, but keep watching, as those of us in the NE Caribbean are doing.
here is a good web site
http://www.wunderground.com/
click on Tropical/hurricane in the tool bar at the top of the page.
There you will see all the information you need to follow this storm.
At this point the computer models do take it very close to PR and VI but these models are very unreliable more than 3 days in advance.
the path of this storm is still up in the air.

Thanks all; Sorry to appear fear mongering. Actually, I'm just curious. Even if a hurricane was going to hit USVI, I would still go there. Took the last plane out of Nassau to San Salvador in the Bahamas years ago, because of an approaching hurricane. Winds were 95 to 100 mph and I watched the pool completed being emptied by the winds. Helped the islanders with clean up after that, and actually did a reef fish survey two days later. Thanks for the good info. Robert59

Barbara1; Great website for hurricane tracking. It predicts by 2am Friday the winds will be up the 75mph and that it will be near the USVI and Puerto Rico. I'm still going. Robert59

I'm not trying to hijack this thread and I'm certainly not trying to "scaremonger" but here goes: My husband and I are supposed to fly into St. Thomas on Friday afternoon and ferry over to Jost Van Dyke for 4 nights and then Virgin Gorda for 5 nights. According to the latest satellite, Dean will be south of St. Thomas on Sunday at 8am and will be a Category 2 Hurricane. On Sunday at 8am, we'll be staying beachfront at Sandcastles on Jost Van Dyke. There is NO WAY that Sandcastles would allow us to stay there right at oceanfront through a Category 2, but when will they make that decision? After we've flown in on Friday afternoon? We don't know what to do and need a little guidance. I don't want the first few days of our vacation to be rainy, windy and having to evacuate to higher ground. If it was you (and I know things can change, but assuming this stays on track as is), do you cancel?

What are the relevant cancellation policies? As you know, the track becomes more clear with each passing day.

Becca - really I don't think anyone on this board can tell you when a particular resort will make decisions on when they might stop accepting guests because of the impending storm. Your best bet is to monitor one or more of the various hurricane websites to track the progress of the storm and contact your airline and resort directly for the latest information. What contributors on this or other travel forums say would be pure speculation (unless one of them happens to be associated with the hotel or airline).

You really do have to monitor the sites and see what happens or where Dean may go. There are still several paths that are options but I would call Sandcastles and see what they are doing or recommending. You might also want to think about putting a hold on a room where ever you plan to transfer - Tortola? I still wouldn't pull the panic lever and give it another day but that's me! Just remember that the weather after a 'cane is usually spectacular but it's the getting thru it that's no fun at all!
I usually check stormcarib.com. and caribwx.com is on Tortola.

Well we're all watching it as far away as in Jamaica. We hate it when they become a Tropical Storm all the way out in the Atlantic. :(

August &amp; September, unfortunately, are <i><u>the</u></i> hurricane months in the Caribbean. This is the time when most of us tend to follow the weather a little more closely, especially when we hear about a &quot;Tropical Disturbance&quot;.

Thanks for all the advice. I just heard back from Sandcastles. They said they are closely watching the storm and if it stays on track, will be evacuating guests to Tortola and St. Thomas. She said she hopes to be able to advise the guests very soon. I am thinking about putting a hold on a room on Tortola. (I am not a fan of St. Thomas and would hate to be stuck there for several days.) Changing the subject slightly, does anyone have a recommendation for a hotel on Tortola that is a bit higher ground?

The online accu weather stated Dean will most likely hit the Caribbean (That's as specific as he got) and that it will most likely be hurricane strength by the time it arrives. I'm still flying out to St. Thomas tomorrow am. Just hope the ferry boat to St. John won't be shut down due to rough seas. Robert59

I'm on St. John right now and while everyone *is* keeping an eye on this storm, there isn't any sense of &quot;panic&quot; at all. These forecasts this far out are suject to huge changes over the next few days. I would plan a contingency, but I certainly wouldn't start canceling plans.

Robert -- Ferries will be running tomorrow just fine. The weather is fine and the seas are fine. No need to worry so much this far out!

Sandcastles just sent me an e-mail and cancelled all guests' reservations through Tuesday, August 21st. They said that Dean is expected to hit St. Croix as a Category 3. (This isn't exactly what the National Hurricane Center is showing - well south of St. Croix and a Category 2.) I really don't know what to do now.

Oh boy. Well, I'm flying to St. Thomas tomorrow (8/15) on Wed. but aren't taking the ferry to St. John until Saturday. I wonder if the seas will be too rough by then and the service will be shut down. Any experienced VI's have any hunches? Robert59

If we still fly in on Friday, we are now considering flying Air Sunshine over to Tortola instead of taking the ferry in case the seas are up (I tend to get a bit seasick). Sandcastles just e-mailed me back and told me that if Dean veers off or fizzles out, that we will be welcome to rebook the hotel. I will keep my fingers crossed.

Pretty funny they canceling their reservations so soon. Dean appears to me to be passing south of us. We will get some rain and ground seas, but I don't think it will be anything to panic over. Things change, but it seems the changes are looking better and better for us. At least the 11PM track I just saw!

RL

As of the 5:00am runs it certainly looks like it's veering to the south and most of the computer models are in agreement. I'm really surprised that they would cancel reservations! Doesn't make very much sense at all. Gorgeous day here in paradise!