filmwill

I'm trying as best I can to stay away from this breaking into a thread about Red Shirts vs. Yellow Shirts--so let's try to keep it that way--but I am curious as to what our good friends living in Thailand (Hanuman, MichaelBKK, etc.) think about the upcoming rallies planned in Bangkok on Sunday..

Do you guys think this is the 'tipping point' and something that'll break out into something much, much bigger? It's always hard to tell reading the English-language press in BKK...everything seems so uber-sensationalized.

It seems a vicious cycle and a widening divide between two groups who, less and less, can find any common ground. I hope it can be resolved soon, peacefully, for the sake of the country.

On a side note, I find it slightly bizarre that every time I'm about to fly to Thailand ,lately, there's some major political crisis brewing.

Hanuman

Perhaps you're one of the horsemen of the apocalypse? To be more serious IMO the planned rally stem from the asset seizure of the former P.M. The court did a very good job of explaining the reasons for the judgement to confiscate some of ill gotten asset that it's hard for the red shirt to justify their argument. However, the former P.M. need to topple the current government before the Thai attorney general press more felony charges against him since the Supreme Court for Holders of Political Positions have declared that some of the wealth came from ill gotten means thus from felonious doings of the ex P.M. while in office.

The red shirts are trying to amass about 1 million protesters but I don't believe they have the money, most red shirt protesters get paid about 1,000 baht a day + food. Worst case scenario is probably that the current P.M. dissolve the house of parliament IF the former can lured enough MPs back to his side. A coup is unlikely but you can never be too sure since it only take a medium ranking officer with a battalion of men to start one but will most likely fail or get squashed.

The most likely scenario is that things will fizzle out after a few days of protest. As for me I'm off to Hua Hin for the weekend, just to play it safe!

MichaelBKK

It rained this morning. It rains every time the reds gather, so we could be in for some flooding by the weekend. ;-)

I'm leaning towards Hanuman's view, that this weekend will be more bark than bite, and after all the near-panic whipped up by the press it will be much ado about nothing. BUT, you never know. The violence last April apparently started when some ordinary people saw their livelihoods threatened by the protesters and took it in their own hands to chase them off - with clubs and sticks - when the police wouldn't act. That kind of situation could happen again, easily.

rhkkmk

and bkk goes on as usual

kuranosuke

hanuman, going to huahin to play it safe? is safe thai slang for golf and tennis?

SiamJai

My take is that unless you are in immediate vicinity of the protests, you aren't gonna see a thing. Yes, there's definitely a lot of sensationalized news going around at the moment. No-one really knows if these protests are going to get outta hand, but my bet is nothing serious is gonna happen. I'd still advise travel to Bangkok.

rhkkmk

i just spoke with pook to see what's happening... he says that there are lots of troops around the city and there are some roadblocks....it is however quiet....people are just waiting to see if anything develops... they are 'cautious' is the word he used... life is going on as it does in bkk...

so lets hope it just another non-event...

susiesan

I'm in BKK now, the end of a 2 week vacation to Cambodia and Laos. There's a map on the National media website showing all the streets and places to avoid:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Map-Ba...e-t346351.html

It's a very long list.I have two more days to go here, and don't know what to do Friday and Saturday as protesters may be all over the city. There's also a rumor the taxi drivers may go on strike, and the protesters will block the highway to BKK and so there's no way to get to the airport. I can't believe this may happen to me again as I was wrapped up in the BKk closure fiasco in Nov. 2008.

Zeer

PTT are suspending all fuel sales and deliveries to Bangkok and surrounding provinces from tomorrow according to several websites.

Roads could be pretty quiet tomorrow anyway if the people in my Soi are any indication. All of those with jobs in Bangkok are taking the day off and a couple who have children attending school in central Bangkok are keeping them at home.

Could be a nice day for some walking in Bangkok, just like when they had the last coup.

Hanuman

You're one unlucky women! If you are afraid, check out of your hotel and stay at the airport. Or you can go to the airport by train if the highway are blocked.

Zeer

Susie, this time around you will find the authorities more motivated than before to ensure airports and roads aren't blocked by protesters. There's no need to panic just yet as a repeat of the PAD blockade of the airport in 2008 is unlikely.

mcbeanie

Isn't there some type of financial payment from the Thai govt to any tourist hurt or stranded by political uprisings? Supposedly, it was established in February, but I read one article on Yahoo News a couple of weeks ago, and then found it a few days later in the Jakarta newspaper. Haven't seen anything since, so I guess it will take a little searching ~~ "Thai payments to stranded tourist" or something like this. It also included medical payments for injured tourists as a results of the political situations ~~ I think, a total not to exceed $10000.

I am sure some of you know more about this in detail. I just stumbled upon it ~~ wasn't looking for it in particular.

Sandra

rhkkmk

sandra, if that is the case we all better head for bkk to make some $$

mcbeanie

Go ahead, Bob!

I couldn't stand being hurt in a melee, but being stranded in BKK might not be so mad. I think I could stay there indefinitely.

We already have all our reservations for this fall, and I still have 10 months to wait.

Have fun!

Sandra

FurryTiles

Just read this article in today's <i>Sydney Morning Herald</i>

“. . . Anti-government ''red shirt'' protesters have not ruled out seizing control of Bangkok's international airport, as happened during demonstrations by their yellow-shirted opponents two years ago.

Already, police and soldiers are manning the airport, as well as key intersections and train stations in the city, while barricades and razor-wire fences are being erected outside key government buildings.”

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-...=1268264168376

Our daughter arrives at Bangkok airport on Monday, changing flights for onward travel to Europe, so keeping fingers crossed it will indeed be "bkk goes on as usual."

Glad she has full travel insurance covering delays and cancellations!

barefootbeach

mcbeanie, I just read the same thing a few days ago in our local paper....they called it Tourist Travel insurance but they didn't say how to claim it. Worth looking into though.

MichaelBKK

The insurance is only $10,000. That will buy a lot of first class medical treatment here, but isn't really compensation.

Curiously, the police and army checkpoint that was between my office and house, set up just before the court verdict last month, disappeared yesterday.

Taxi drivers won't be on strike. They've been offered 1,000+ Baht to take part in the demos. If you can't get a taxi to the airport, ask your hotel to comp you a transfer.

Hanuman

So far things are very quiet today. Several checkpoints on the main roads coming into Bangkok and everybody in a vehicle that doesn't have a Bangkok plate are being screened for I.D.s and their vehicle searched. Police and army units are stationed throughout Bangkok especially at "flash" points like the Government house, Democracy roundabout and a special no go zone has been declared around Siriraj Hospital where the King is recuperating at.

khunwilko

Most major" events in thai "politics" tend to be a whimper rather than a bang. although it is unlikely the Redshirts will get the numbers they hope for (why did they go for such a difficult to attain figure??), there will be hotheads on both sides.
the government has played up the treat of violence for weeks, probably to garner support for any extreme measures they care to take - e/g the internal security laws they have implemented.

The world outside is relatively unconcerned - whoever runs the country, there is seldom any real change in policies and economy - the baht will reflect this on the money markets showing only small changes.

The main thing to come of this is how the world will view the health of democracy in Thailand - and one has to say at present it does not look very healthy.

The future of the Monarchy may well prove to be a much more significant factor and any role the King has to play in forthcoming events.

khunwilko

The fuel thing - and why have PTT done this? on their own or under govt pressure? - is worrying - I thin as a measure against bombs it is futile, but as I have to commute about 200km most days i is rather worrying if panic buying ensues.