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-   -   Beginning Trip Planning for Next Year (https://www.fodors.com/community/asia/beginning-trip-planning-for-next-year-1724750/)

Alice9 Aug 22nd, 2024 06:06 PM

progol, yes, I think airfare will be one of our biggest expenses - because I think we have to go business class on such a long trip. But, hey, we deserve it! I'm thinking we'll fly first to the west coast or even Hawaii, rest up and then take the longer flight.

I do most of the planning, but I let my husband chase airfare. Airfare will dictate the actual dates (you need a little flexibility when booking air), and then I'll start looking at accommodations. But we're not even close to that, much work to do first.

Thanks!
Alice

Alice9 Aug 22nd, 2024 06:12 PM

mjs, glad to hear there's another vote for guidebooks, I like to start that way too.
Interesting about paying economy and upgrading, I hadn't thought about that as a strategy.
We were in Crete and Rhodes last year, Portugal the year before. And like you, I go again and again to London, Paris comes in second.
We're just going to have to realize that this will be an expensive trip between airfare and accommodations, my guess is that this will be our only trip to Japan.

And of course there will be smaller trips before this far away one, so other planning to do...
Thanks for your thoughts and help - Alice

mrwunrfl Aug 23rd, 2024 07:15 AM

If you want to go from west coast then consider Zipair lie-flat seats.

Best option tho would be the ANA or United nonstop from Dulles if business class is affordable to you. Thinking that your health concern about long-haul flights is overcome by the comfort available in business class.

mjs Aug 23rd, 2024 04:03 PM

If it’s business class or premium economy chose ANA over United if prices similar

mrwunrfl Aug 24th, 2024 07:49 AM

Have to say that I was impressed with United business class in fall 2022. At least as good as ANA. The flights from IAD are probably codeshares in which case I might choose ANA to Japan and United coming back.

As far as the length of the trip goes, here are the distances for the nonstop and connecting options.
A map from the Great Circle Mapper - Great Circle Mapper (gcmap.com)

Figure 500 miles per hour ballpark. Seattle (or Vancouver) to Tokyo would be about 5000 miles so 10 hours and Dulles to Tokyo about 7000 miles so 14 hours.

Alice9 Aug 24th, 2024 08:57 AM

mjs, mrwunrfl - thanks for the flight considerations. My husband is all for nonstop, I'm not sure that's the best choice. I will definitely look at ANA though.
Alice

someotherguy Aug 24th, 2024 12:08 PM

To my mind, the best guidebook is "Gateway to Japan" by Kinoshita and Palevsky. It's long out of print (30 years) but is easily and inexpensively available via bookfinder.com

BTW. I have flying advice at
https://www.adumbrate.org/pics/traveltips.html#flying

Mara Aug 24th, 2024 05:12 PM

someotherguy, is that your website and photos?? Very impressive!! Thanks for sharing!!

I think I still have Gateway to Japan somewhere in my bookcase...;-)

mjs Aug 24th, 2024 08:21 PM

You might want to buy some yen now. The yen has gotten much stronger lately. It was around 160 to the dollar in July and now it’s 144. Given probable fed lowering its rates and the Japanese likely to raise their rates it’s probable that the dollar will weaken further against the yen.

mrwunrfl Aug 25th, 2024 08:05 AM

Too late, the time to buy was at 160. I doubt that BOJ will increase rates again any time soon. The Fed probably will lower the rate and the dollar will fall a bit vs yen but the cost of buying yen now would probably be greater than any drop in the exchange rate.

DOLLAR TO YEN FORECAST 2024, 2025, 2026 - 2028 - Long Forecast

And a good bit of the drop was a result of the "unwinding of the yen carry trade":which is an interesting topic. But, I think that is unwound now.

Alice9 Aug 25th, 2024 11:00 AM

someotherguy, thanks for the guidebook advice (I'm sure I'll be able to find a used one),and especially for they excellent flying advice. Much appreciated!
Alice

Wilk67 Aug 25th, 2024 02:51 PM


Originally Posted by mrwunrfl (Post 17592523)
Too late, the time to buy was at 160. I doubt that BOJ will increase rates again any time soon. The Fed probably will lower the rate and the dollar will fall a bit vs yen but the cost of buying yen now would probably be greater than any drop in the exchange rate.

DOLLAR TO YEN FORECAST 2024, 2025, 2026 - 2028 - Long Forecast

And a good bit of the drop was a result of the "unwinding of the yen carry trade":which is an interesting topic. But, I think that is unwound now.

The yen carry trade had just hardly begun to "unwind", and actually came back for a bit when the BOJ stated a couple weeks ago that they won't again increase rates while markets are "unstable" (which is where the world economy is currently heading). The eyes are on the FED and a drop in US rates (due to being "unstable"), and any projected drop in that would be a disruptor to the carry trade and make the yen stronger.
The yen carry trade supposedly equates to 10 or maybe 20 TRILLION dollars (nobody really knows for sure how much) and that huge source of funding has fueled the world's stock markets and equities for a couple decades now. If a sizable portion of that money was to be removed from worldwide investment and reverted back to Japan, then economies and businesses across the planet would crash and the yen would surge. The last time this happened to a sizable degree was 2009-2012 during the "Great Recession" when the yen went for 75 to the dollar.

plambers Aug 26th, 2024 05:42 AM

I went to Japan with my 22 year old daughter this past May/June for the first time. I was overwhelmed but started reading trip reports on this forum and figured out what appealed to me and what didn't. It really helped me with our plan. Also the advice on this forum and on Japan guide is is wonderful. We found mid May/early June to be perfect-2 half days of rain in 18 days.

Best suggestion we got is to mix cities and countryside and also mix activities. Also lodging.

We also flew business class as the long flight and time difference can be brutal.

One of the best trips we ever took and I am taking my husband this March.


Alice9 Aug 27th, 2024 02:04 PM

Thanks, plambers. The answers so far have pushed me towards late fall, but you enjoyed spring, I may reconsider. Would you mind sharing your itinerary?

I'm pretty sold on business class for such a long flight!

Everyone I've talked to about their trip to Japan LOVED theirs.

Alice

kja Aug 27th, 2024 02:14 PM

Late fall is great if you want to see koyo.
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2014.html

I couldn't afford either koyo or sakura, and so went in May, tracking the blooming of iris and various festivals.

someotherguy Aug 27th, 2024 08:16 PM

If you can afford the time, repositioning cruises can be a good alternative to flying to or from Japan. In the fall, ships go from the US West Coast to Japan (via Alaska) and then on to the rest of Asia and in the spring they go in the other direction.

The fall cruises are badly timed: they leave in September and arrive in Japan in typhoon season and too early for koyo (red leaves).

But the spring cruises are very good. They leave Japan in April so you can fly in a couple of weeks before and enjoy sightseeing during Sakura season then take a ship back.

Specifically, the Holland America Noordam leaves Yokohama on April 27th 2025 (the beginning of Golden Week, so pretty ideal as that's when things get really busy) and arrives in Vancouver on May 11th. A balcony cabin goes for $1,629 per person all in (well, drinks and internet cost extra if you want them), so far cheaper than business class air (and an inside cabin is $500 less).

I explain the mechanics of finding these in my traveltips website, linked in my previous message (where I also talk about hotels and rental cars, and the potential consequences of a traffic accident in Japan).

ChgoGal Aug 28th, 2024 04:42 AM

RE: late May/early June
My family group of 6 were in Japan at exactly this time last year as we had to accommodate school schedules. Just a note that Kyoto was incredibly crowded with Japanese students/school group visits and tourists. As popular as Japan has become, it will likely be busy in Kyoto at most months of the year--but from previous trips, I was really surprised. It's less obvious in Tokyo, except at popular tourists sites like Senso-ji and Meiji Jingu/Harajuku, but wall to wall people. The society is wonderful there, though, so even if crowded, people are courteous. Just wanted to mention. The crowds didn't bother me, but every photo you take has to be timed around other people taking the same photos, and some places you're shuffling with the crowd, etc.

mjs Aug 28th, 2024 05:45 AM

We were in Japan last year in early November in time for the leaves and indeed it was crowded and expensive. Better to go late November to early December in my opinion

mrwunrfl Aug 28th, 2024 08:06 AM

One-way business class fares from Japan to USA can be a lot less expensive than the other direction. That is true for the West Coast, anyway. Last June, I paid $1635 for one-way from Tokyo to LAX. Months earlier I got a United award to Fukuoka for 80,000 miles. All flights in business class on Asiana.

Here are fares that would give you an overnight stay on the way from Tokyo to DC this fall.


Mon, Nov 11, 2024

Zipair $1320 Tokyo → Vancouver
8 hr 30 min nonstop
That includes $1195 fare plus about $125 for a package that includes luggage, a meal, seat selection, amenity kit.

Asiana $1553 Tokyo → Seoul → LAX
15 hr 25 min total trip time (the longhaul is 11 hr 10 min)
Asiana is a Star Alliance carrier

Asiana $1557 Tokyo → Seoul → Seattle
the longhaul is 9 hr 45 min

Here are fares the next day

Tue, Nov 12, 2024

Alaska one stop (in Seattle) first class
$439 Vancouver → Dulles

United nonstop first class
$479 LAX → BWI
$574 LAX → Dulles

Delta nonstop first class
$410 Seattle → Dulles

lcuy Aug 31st, 2024 09:10 PM

Gateway to Japan is the best guidebook ever written about Japan. The prices are completely out of date, many hotels and restaurants are long gone, it has phone numbers instead of websites, and what used to be quiet places are booming tourists spots. However, it has chapters on temples (both Buddhist and Shinto), Japanese architecture, local customs, food, regional art and crafts, history, and much much more. It also has some really useful lists...Best Market towns, best traditional inns, etc.
I have two copies (got one at a library sale) so when a friend asks to borrow, I don't ever lose my own copy! I use it along with the online Japan-guide.com, Booking.com, and other japan specific websites for bookings and price comparison. Japan Solo is also great for planning itinerary and logistics.


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