The one and only post ever by this poster. I would not take it seriously.

Have a great trip, SusanP!

Thanks, progol.

@crellston - the data isn't in yet for definite statements on how contagious and how deadly this new virus is. However, the reports I have been reading say that it is significantly less likely to kill you than SARS or MERS, but also that it is more deadly than flu, especially if you are older. Besides China, I would be a bit worried about visiting Japan at this: point, given the passengers from the Diamond Princess seem to have been released from the ship without further quarantine. But I fall into both the older and the immuno-compromised categories.

Hi thursdaysd - I wasn’t making a definitive statement, hence my words " I am not a doctor, my understanding " Etc. I have read and seen numerous health professional indicate that the corona virus has about the same incidence of death or serious complication as "normal" influenza" HOWEVER.

The statistics on infection and mortality rates will not finally be known until after the outbreak has run its course. Until then, we will only see transient statistics on death, hospitalisation and contraction rates on a day to day, week to week basis, all of which are subject to varying influences such as data collecting and interpretation methodologies or political influence. In the last week alone I have seen a variance in mortality rates of 0.5 and 4% with 2% being the most popular number.

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that they will follow the course of most of these outbreaks and whilst the numbers contracting the virus will increase, the % of deaths and serious complication will reduce and decline as the virus peters out. The financial markets, usually a surprisingly good indicator, seem to be increasingly positive on the outcome.

As I said previously, If I were in the older, immuno compromised group, I would likely be a lot more cautious but not necessarily re Japan even after the cruise ship debacle. They now seem to have exported a lot of those passengers to the US, Canada and Australia - have to feel for those Aussies whom I read are being quarantined in a mining camp in Darwin! I can’t believe that transporting potential and actual virus carriers across continents is any way to stop the spread of any disease.

The Straits Times in Singapore is doing one of the better reporting jobs. This article is interesting, basically asymptomatic people spread the virus and they think it's more similar to flu, than to SARS.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se...Pos=7#cxrecs_s
Although preliminary, the findings published on Wednesday (Feb 19) in The New England Journal of Medicine offer new evidence that Covid-19 is not like its closely related coronavirus cousins.

Unlike severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which causes infections deep in the lower respiratory tract that can result in pneumonia, Covid-19 appears to inhabit both the upper and lower respiratory tracts.

That would make it capable of not only causing severe pneumonia, but also spreading easily like flu or the common cold.

Japan has cancelled the amateur portion of the Tokyo Marathon, and is asking citizens to avoid large gatherings.

To answer the question, I had no plans to go to Asia, other than possibly Bali, which I think I've put on hold. I'm also reluctant to book any cruises or long plane flights, which is making a return to Mexico City sound better and better!
Or will just stick to road trips for a while.

I hadn't seen a reference to that article yet -- thanks for posting!

Yes, asymptomatic people spreading the virus and also that the virus being reported that it isn't as bad as SARS is also what was being reported when I was in Singapore. As for Japan canceling events, Singapore has also canceled various public events as a friend just left there a few days ago and returned back to the U.S. after friend and spouse were there for a month visiting family. I've been keeping up with the going-ons since I got home on Feb 03rd.

When I arrived on Jan 21st, the friend and friend's spouse and I were out and about pretty much as usual in Singapore. But, in the updates that I've been receiving, things changed quite a bit pretty shortly after I had left as far as cancelled public events, popular restaurants not having waiting lines, some restaurants doing health monitoring of guests, and other situations.

I recently received an e-mail from Jane's Walking Tours-Singapore and they're also taking precautions due to the Wuhan Virus. Below is what was e-mailed to me the other day from them. I've been getting their e-mails for years.

https://janestours.sg

Happy Travels!

Thanks for that link, I've subscribed to their newsletters. I only had a few brief hours in Singapore (in transit) and as a Planner and City Person, found it fascinating (other than the weather !!!)

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se...-and-observers

"PM Lee's speech "was a pretty outstanding example of very good risk communication", said Dr Claire Hooker, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney's Centre for Values, Ethics and the Law in Medicine, who has studied the public responses to epidemics and infectious disease for about 20 years."

"Mr Thomas Abraham, author of Twenty First Century Plague, The Story Of Sars, and a risk communication consultant for WHO, said the speech worked because of the high level of trust Singaporeans have in the competence of the government - as well as the transparency."

*You're welcome.

I just read your posted article in the Straits Times and it was spot on. I remember even back in the SARS crisis days that Singapore got an award for being the most vigilant country to combat that virus although they were caught off guard with that one as was the rest of the world. I was also there back then as I've been vacationing there regularly over a 21-year period.

While I was just there and the first Wuhan virus case was reported a couple days later, I was happy that I was in Singapore as I felt confident that the government and residents would keep on top of the situation and there were regular updated reports as cases multiplied and got up to 18 by the time I had flown home on Feb 3rd.

As far as there being confidence in the Singaporean government as your linked article pointed out, I remember when I was in a taxi one day, a few weeks ago, and the taxi driver got into a conversation with me after he had asked where I was from and then started discussing the U.S., and the conversation went in the direction of him commenting that they have a very good government and he felt confident in it. He wasn't only discussing Wuhan virus, but just things in general.

Happy Travels!