WTH just happened to my airfare?
 

I have been planning a trip to Europe this October (Cincinnati -> AMS, PAR -> Cincinnati). The airfares had been at $919 for a couple of weeks, and I was getting ready to purchase, then last night the fares jumped to $1,140! For 5 people, the impact is over $1,000.

Given that the trip is still about 3 months out, should I be patient and wait for the price to fall (hope!)? I was thinking airfare to Europe during off-peak should be in the $750 - $900 range - am I off base?

Thanks.

if you're trying for 5 people it's likely the fare bucket you were looking at sold out for 5. Check what happens for 2 or 3 and you'll have an answer.

And I think the days of $750 airfare to Europe without sales are over even in October. So you may catch a sale but for 5 people you may not.

This rise and fall happens all the time. You might try again later this afternoon or this evening, and you may find that the airfares have dropped back to $919. But I would not wait long. You might find that the fares even drop back down this morning, but you never know.

While some forecasts show airfares falling this fall, I think you are not being reasonable if you think you'll pay $750 in October; that's now high-shoulder season for travel to Europe, particularly to Paris. Perhaps January or February. If you can get a fare for anywhere around $900 from Cincinnati, grab it immediately. You're flying from an airport with limited flights that is particularly expensive. It's not like the old days when Cincinnati was a major Delta hub. Realize that taxes alone are adding almost $100 to the fare.

I was pricing tickets to Amsterdam from JFK in March, and the fares were hovering around $1100 even then, which seemed absolutely insane to me at the time.

Ah, yes, I think mztery has a good point. The fare class may be sold out on that flight for 5. That is another likely explanation. It's inconvenient, but have you tried Lufthansa? They've been offering some very good airfares to Europe for the fall, though you're required to fly through Frankfurt or Munich (if given a choice, always choose Munich, which is a much smaller and nicer airport and even has free Wi-Fi, newspapers, and coffee in the waiting lounges).

Thanks for the replies. In my search, I just search for one person and check the seating availablity, so a 5-person search isn't the reason. I just checked the seating availability again, and there are plenty of rows with 5 seats together.

In the breakdown of fares and taxes, taxes are $587, the remainder is the fare ($550).

I'm not going to panic and buy at this price, but will be patient and hope the fares return to the previous level, then pounce.

The sale on air fares to Europe for flights from August 26 to the end of October ended today it seems. Yesterday morning both United and Air France had flights from Washington to Athens for under $900. Today they are over $1000.

My advice would be to keep checking and buy your tickets the first time you see a good price which might be anything under $1000.

@thesmith - seating availability has nothing to do with fare class.

@thesmith -- Also consider going to a travel agent for this. With five people, it's worth the trouble and potential minor expense of perhaps $25 per ticket to have a knowledgable person do a more detailed search. Travel agents can see if a fare class is sold out or if it's just a limited sale that's over.

Also check AirfareWatchdog.com to see what they say.

<i>"In my search, I just search for one person and check the seating availablity, so a 5-person search isn't the reason. I just checked the seating availability again, and there are plenty of rows with 5 seats together."</i>

Availability of seats doesn't make any difference if the fare class yielding the lower fares is sold out, or only has one or two seats left.

I think it's what people are saying above. That the number of seats allowable in that specific 'fare class' sold out. Did you check slightly different days, times, airlines??

I just rechecked the fares, and it's come down to $1,090 (down $50 from yesterday), so it's moving in the right direction.

I think Roger 1x hit it - the sale ended. I had been checking different flight itineraries and dates, and they all shot up at that the same time.

And as I typed this, I decided to check on something, and the darn fare is back up to $1,140. Arrrrgh!

I'm going to echo what another poster has said - you don't seem to understand how airfares can go up AND down. For 5 tickets you might want to go to a travel agent with instructions to hold 5 tix when the fare hits a certain point. One advantage of a travel agent is that they can HOLD tickets while they call you and get your ok.

I understand that fares can go up AND down, thanks. It's the why I was curious about (sale ended). I understand that flights might sell out of a particular bucket of fares, but that wasn't the case here. Once again, I checked several flights in the days and weeks around days that I wanted to fly and the prices went up uniformly (whether it was for one passenger or five). I just missed the sale, that's all, now I have to deal with it.

Thanks again.

@thesmith - what I'm reacting to is what you wrote:
I just rechecked the fares, and it's come down to $1,090 (down $50 from yesterday), so it's moving in the right direction.
and
And as I typed this, I decided to check on something, and the darn fare is back up to $1,140. Arrrrgh!


"moving in the right direction" means you think it will continue to go down. Which it didn;t.

A travel agent can HOLD a fare where an individual can't so that might be one way to go.

@mztery - I think we're getting off topic here and into the weeds, but when I said the fare was "moving in the right direction" it was merely an observation on the trend of the fare. Obviously, I would hope it would return to the sales price as before, but I know that prices fluctuate (meaning they can go either way).

Thanks for the advice on the travel agent, I'll look into it.

Out.

>>>And I think the days of $750 airfare to Europe without sales are over even in October.<<<<

I don't agree. There were sales a week or two ago with many flights in that range for Sept. People on Flyertalk were booking fares to BCN for the high 600's. I can't link it because Flyertalk pulls threads when a fare is gone. They put up a listing like this to let everyone know it's gone first.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/milea...ai-5-3cpm.html

This is a current one active for Nov/Dec in the $600's. Keep in mind these are on the mileage run forum so people are talking about one night stays as they are doing it for a mileage run.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/milea...etc-692-a.html

Flights from LEX to NCE were $800 and FCO was $805 for Sept. about two weeks ago on Delta.

>>>I have been planning a trip to Europe this October (Cincinnati -> AMS, PAR -> Cincinnati).<<<

You should also look at Dayton and Columbus if they are convenient for you as they are almost always cheaper than Cincy.

That's right @kybourbon - I saw fares for my intinerary (into AMS, return from Paris) for $700, but it wasn't for my specific travel dates. I'm traveling around Oct 18 - 28, but the fares for the week before and week after out of Lexington had several fares between $700 and $750. I'm in Louisville, so can travel out of Louisville, Cincinnati or Lexington.

I didn't want to bore anyone with my woes, but on Sat. morning I found a fare on Orbitz leaving the 17th and returning the 28th for $700 (Iberia Air), but was running late for a meeting and could not purchase. When I was able to make the purchase, the fare had gone up to $977.

Gives me hope to stay patient as there are opportunities out there. As with all things, success is when opportunity meets preparation. I have to be better prepared.

Thanks for the good advice.

I would simply add that you cannot assume the low fares will return at all, nor even the $977 fare. The lowest fares are strictly limited and, if available, may be available for an hour at a time or just a few minutes. Another reason to speak to a travel agent who can assist you with this booking, holding tickets for you for a few hours until you can actually purchase them.

I wouldn't wait too long if you have to travel on those dates. Once you get within a 6 week window, the fares usually go up. If you haven't already, sign up with a couple of sites for fare drop e-mails.

I find fares into AMS higher from this area than to other nearby airports. Is it possible to fly into a nearby airport? I often see flights to Brussels much cheaper than AMS. I wouldn't rule out IND as an option either when searching.

CVG-AMS, CDG-CVG are flights among DL/AF/KL joint-venture fortresses (okay, CVG maybe just a ruin now, but still a strong Skyteam ruin). You're not going to find very low fares like in the $700s. I say anything under $1,000 is good, and you probably have to fly out or SDF or LEX (with extra connections) to get really good fares.

Or like kybourbon says, look into alternatives to AMS.