Which Airline most risky of going bust?
 

With the bad news going all around with the big names in business going bust or seeking much needed liquidity, which airline in your opinion will be the first to gothe same direction (if any)? How confident are you in making reservations with certain airlines?

Not saying that I'm not concerned with what's going on with the financial markets, but we still are making our plans for quick weekend getaways .

We just booked a long weekend getaway to the Caribbean in mid Nov and another long weekend getaway to Chicago in late December to do some Christmas shopping and catch a Monday Night game between the Bears and Packers.

Both flights were booked with American. The B&B on the island didn't even want a deposit so we're safe there if we need to cancel, but for the Chicago trip we booked pre-paid room for the 3 nights because it was about a $75 total savings and it puts us right were we wanted to be, so we took a chance if something were to go wrong.

I would stay away from some of the smaller, less known airlines at the moment, but I would not be too concerned with the bigger airlines. Use a CC when purchasing your ticket.

Most of the major airlines business plan was to thrive when oil is at ~$80 a barrel. Well, it's almost there. Over the last few years they cut capacity, so even though there are less passengers, the planes are still full. I'm guessing that they are somewhat happy with what's going on. World financial markets in a meltdown results in oil prices dropping, thus better for the airlines, at least in the short term. If the markets go to s__t, then it's everybody for themselves, but that's another story for another day.

In the US, definitely not Sun Country.

In Europe, probably any of the smaller, newer startups. [That does not include the two giant discount airlines - Ryanair and easyjet.] And I still won't book Alitalia.

I think many airlines in India over-extend themselves, so smaller ones there may not survive.

Some of the weaker regionals in Asia will have problems. Won't shut down, but I won't count out route and flight cuts like Thai, Malaysia or Philippines. Even the Taiwanese ones.

Are you saying then that most of the american airlines are financially sound?

well i have 5 weeks before my flights to BKK on EVA and i have my fingers crossed.....(although am hoping that as a national carrier they will be ok... won't they??)

Nyetzy - Yes, most of the American airlines are financially sound. Most of them made quite a bit of money in 2006 and 2007, and have been hording cash. They all struggle in 2008, but at least till very recently, have been able to cut flights and raise fares. They can weather the storm for quite a while.

Smeagol - About 30% of the stocks of EVA are owned by public investors, and the rest by the Evergreen group (world's 4th largest container ship lines) and its chairman/founder Chang Yung Fa. The Taiwanese government owns its competitor - China Airlines.

<i>Are you saying then that most of the american airlines are financially sound? </i>,

never said that, but in some ironic twist of faith, the current economic meltdown is in some ways a boost for the airlines. As I said in my earlier post. Oil prices are going down, which is great news for the airlines. The airlines have been cutting capacity over the last few years, parking many of the older planes in the desert, so although there are fewer passengers, the planes in operation are still full and cargo is bringing in most of the money on many routes. The only thing I did say was &quot;I would not worry about making a reservation with any one of the major US based airlines.&quot;

AMR CO, a parent company of AA was one of the few bright lights on Wall Street yesterday, gaining ~$1.33 or almost 20% per share. Read what you want into this but I believe that info backs up my theory.

RKKWAN my mistake thought they were a national carrier, (now i will keep my toes crossed too!!!)

I have not heard of the slightest indication that EVA is in any financial trouble.

What I was saying is that with the downturn, cutting routes and flights on all carriers can be expected. Having &quot;problem&quot; is very far from being going bust. And BKK is a main Asian route, so there's no way EVA will cut that.