what is "Drop Dead Date" for buying airfare?
 

Hello,
This is a double post.
I am 91 days from departure. Hindsight tells me I should have already purchased my tickets...SFO TO FCO, MUC TO SFO (they were the lowest in Nov.)
But I haven't.
What, in your opinion, would be the latest date I purchase regardless of price?
Thanks

Maybe 2 weeks out for a drop-dead date. But even then, I've seen low pricing right up until the day before for trans-Atlantic flights.

Certainly, though, with 91 days, I think you still have quite a bit of time. I wouldn't jump at the first decent price until maybe 45 days out, at the earliest.

I am in the same situation with the same question but the flight is IAD to JNB. Any help appreciated.

There is another aspect to it - time of year. In 3 months, if you're going to Europe, it's going to be Spring, and is a high tourist season. Seats will be snapped up, and prices will go up. In 3 months, going to South Africa, it's their fall, and might not be quite so in demand. That being said, I've been to JNB 3 times now (flying out of Dulles), and the flights have been packed all 3 times. So, I would actually get both those tickets purchased....

I bought my tickets the other day on I Fly Europe...

2 RT tickets open jaw for $1955.24 so I think it's a really good fare.

We leave May 12 from SFO and return June 5 from MUC.

Those were the LOWEST fares I had seen since I started watching since last Nov. I wanted LH flights so I was also being fussy about routes, etc.

There are some great seat sales on right now, so I don't think you've missed out.


I think that the "drop dead" date for cheap fares can vary by airline - some have really good deals, but only if you book at least 2 weeks in advance. For some other airlines, it's three. I think those are the two most common deadlines I've seen. But then you may be able to find packages and other deals on sites like Orbitz, Expedia and Travelocity even closer to your deadline.

It's always worth it to start shopping early - but it doesn't mean you won't find a good deal closer to your date of travel.

In past years I've always bought my US to Europe tickets for May travel only a couple weeks out, and I always get good fares. But, I always have a little bit of flex. If you can only go on certain days and certain flights, then you probably will not be so lucky. To me, the number one factor in getting a good fare is having some flexibility on dates. Looking in to nearby airports doesn't hurt either.

For a point of reference, I bought a ZRH-BOS ticket just a couple of days ago for a trip next week (10 days out), and there were multiple carriers offering flights for maybe $500-$600. In this market, even the 2 week rule isn't hard and fast.

Fares to Europe usually are low in January and February.

Yes, they are usually low. But that there is no differentiation between prices for travel a month out and 10 days out, speaks to the topic at hand.

For European flights over the next few months, I'm not sure tickets will go much lower. I have seen prices drop over just the past couple of weeks. There are some excellent fares out there and the small likelihood they may drop further is probably outweighed by the chance that the "cheap" seats won't be available.

For example,

"You can fly almost anywhere in Europe for $490 round-trip (taxes and fees included) from locations in the eastern U.S."

http://www.frommers.com/blog/?plckCo...a-dc359d3629d3

That you can get a low fare 10 days out from a trip in February has no bearing on whether or not that can be done in May.

I used to think I had this all figured out, but in recent years there have been so many changes in the industry that I think any system based on experience is not reliable. In other words, what worked last year, or even a few months ago, may very well not work today. Some of the things that have caused this are that the airlines had dropped some flights, while adding others, but rarely to the same destinations. So you may find a flight to a less popular destination, where there was no flight there last year; you may find fewer flights to more popular destinations; where airlines were once happy to keep a flight on the schedule that consistently flew half-full, they will drop that flight now so they can fill another flight 100 percent. So if they had two flights, and each carried 150 passengers, they will now schedule one flight that can carry 250 passengers, and the other 50 just won't be able to fly that day. It probably makes business sense to eliminate the costs of the second flight, which only drew another 50 passengers, but it is certainly an inconvenience to the flying public.

Since they are so intent on filling their flights, I suspect there may be more cheap last minute seats than there once were, when they were insistent on getting their pound of flesh if you wanted a last minute seat (people who buy last minute seats usually are under a lot of pressure to get where they are going, so are willing to pay whatever it costs).

Ignoring sales, which are marketing schemes and thus unreliable for planning, but which if you are lucky can get you a good fare, I would look at some factors in deciding whether to buy or defer your purchase.

First, the industry knows when the popular seasons are, and when certain types of people tend to travel (parents with kids, for example, usually travel during school breaks). So expect to pay more if your trip is during a popular season, or during a period when a lot of families will be flying.

Second, look at how much competition there is on the route you will be flying. Competition causes lower fares. It may make economic sense to fly between places that have a lot of competition, then take a train, for example, to your actual destination. If there is a lot of competition, it may make sense to defer your purchase.

Third, look at the support available to your destination. If, for example, there are only three flights a week to your destination, deferring your purchase too long can really screw up your plans when the last ticket is sold to the guy in front of you. So if there are a limited number of flights to your destination, and your plans demand that you fly on a certain date (or, for example, miss your connection to a cruise ship), buying sooner rather than later makes good sense. However, I still think that when they first start selling tickets on a flight, perhaps a year in advance, they offer no mercy, since they think only a worry-wort would buy that soon, and, being aa worry-wort, will pay whatever they ask. So my bet is that sometime in that year, they will offer a better price.

There are also a lot of arcane rules on fares, that vary from airline to airline, and probably are not worth the effort for a casual traveler to learn. For example, I was planning our next trip of a lifetime, and thought it would make sense to make one long trip rather than two shorter trips, thus saving the cost of a flight. Once I had a tentative itinerary, I started looking at flights on the airline that has enslaved me with frequent flyer privileges. I started out with a four week plan, and the fares looked good, so good in fact, that I started thinking about a six week plan. The fares soared. I finally realized that my favorite airline has one fare code (much higher) for trips that exceed 30 days, with a much better priced fare code for trips that are no longer than 30 days (there are also code limits on how short a trip can be). So I rewrote our itinerary for 30 days, and got a really decent price on an open-jaw ticket. Since I bought, the fare has down and up a few times, and probably will a few more times before we leave in April, but I was happy with the price I got, and if all this cursed snow would melt, I wouldn't have the time to keep checking, trying to save that last dollar.

So my system now is to not buy ridiculously far in advance, and to invent a price I think is good, and grab it when it comes around.

I bought my tickets the other day on I Fly Europe...

2 RT tickets open jaw for $1955.24 so I think it's a really good fare.

We leave May 12 from SFO and return June 5 from MUC.

Those were the LOWEST fares I had seen since I started watching since last Nov. I wanted LH flights so I was also being fussy about routes, etc.


UPDATE to above: If I'd have waited until today I could have saved myself $753 for 2 tickets!!! You just never know when to buy the tickets! LH is having a great sale right now. I could get same flts for $1202.28 total for 2 persons. I should have stopped checking after I bought.

TAW, don't feel bad about it. It's a gamble. Win a few, loose a few...

Treesa,
You are so right...I've gotta keep telling myself to look on the bright side...at least I get to travel...

Look at the terms and conditions for your ticket with respect to cancellation and/or re-booking fees. If you re-book on the same airline, you might find that eating the cancellation fee and applying the rest to "new" reservations would still save you money.

Agree with Gardyloo. Most airlines charge $150 to $200 to change a ticket. If LH charges are about the same, you might get a refund on some of that difference. If not, you might still get a voucher to use on another trip.

It's worth checking.

Problem is I bought from IFlyEurope...and those tickets aren't the same price as on LH's website. BTW, the sale is gone today. Oh well, I had budgeted $2,000 for tickets and I came in under that so...I should be happy. Should have listened to myself and stopped checking after I bought.