Should I purchase now?
 

I need advice, please...flying SFO-CDG May 11 this year. Returning May 30. Two adults.

I originally wanted to get Prem Econ on AF non-stop both ways but right now they are over 5k for 2 RT tickets! However I just found flights from SFO to SLC then to CDG on same dates.
I can get economy going and get Prem Econ on way home CDG to SFO nonstop for $3148 for two RT tickets.

The plane is an Airbus 330-200 out of SLC.
Is there something I am missing here? It seems like a good price. We are going to do carry-on only and there is less than 1 hour in SLC to get the next flight.
Should I go for it or wait for the fares on the non-stop both ways to come down?

I know that I should buy when the price is within my budget and not look back but I'm concerned about the SLC-CDG leg. Otherwise I wouldn't hesitate.

Thanks in advance for your advice!

At this point I don't think you are going to see many sales for the time period you are looking for.

I should not have hesitated...they are $800 more now. That happened in about 4 hours!

Dynamic pricing means that you can never know when is a good time to book. You're right TAW, he who hesitates is lost. You had it right when you said you 'know that I should buy when the price is within my budget.' You failed to heed your own advice. Live and learn.

If you are flexible, you can wait to see if a lower price comes up but you have to be willing to wait till the last minute, change your plans and do something else if it doesn't happen, etc. Without maximum flexibility, the only way is buy when you can afford to (within your budget as you say) and do NOT look back after that.

dulciusexasperis, you are so right. I did not heed my own advice. I was more concerned about the plane out of SLC than purchasing the tickets.

I always do look back, especially in the 24 hours after booking when the ticket can be cancelled for a full refund or re-booked with a refund. After that, look for a fare drop that is greater than the change fee.

I suggest that when you do a fare search that you do it for 1 passenger. After you find a good fare then search for 2 pax and be ready to book it if the total cost for two is twice the 1 pax ticket. Don't assume that it will be. The total for two could be higher.

I know this thread is a few days old but I just saw this on line as this question comes up often. I didn't write the article so can't say how spot on the research data is. I would assume anything outside the time windows are fair game. I usually go with the "found the right price at my budget buy it" approach:

Best time to book a plane ticket

Europe: 151 days before your flight
Asia: 129 days before your flight
The Caribbean: 101 days before your flight
Mexico: 89 days before your flight
Latin America: 80 days before your flight
Domestic: 54 days before your flight

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...6pLid%3D449340

Given how air pricing is determined, I think these results are what would be termed "artifacts" rather than an actual guideline one can use.

I wasn't posting this information saying it was 100% accurate but I do think it's helpful. It actually was pretty close to the two airfares I bought last month. As I said in my post "I usually go with the 'found the right price at my budget buy it' approach" but still something I will keep in mind for my future travel plans. There are trends but trends can and do change.

Anyone who understands 'dynamic pricing' knows that no one can predict when the best day to book will be. As far as I am concerned the article is a 'fluff' piece.

Here is another 'study' that refutes the one you link and suggests 6 weeks (42 days) is THE time to book.
http://business.time.com/2012/01/24/...fore-a-flight/

Here is another explanation that says the best time to buy is on a Tuesday at 3pm. How specific is that!
http://www.farecompare.com/travel-ad...avel-insiders/

Here is Texas A&M university weighing in to totally disagree with the buy on Tuesday 'studies'.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...ving+Well+News)

Bottom line sassy, NO ONE can tell you when the best time to buy will be. Dynamic pricing works on a set of factors using a complicated mathematical model that changes prices in REAL time. The price at this moment can be higher or lower than the price you find an hour from now. Anyone suggesting they can predict based on past prices (that's what they have to study) what current or future prices will be is kidding themselves. They might as well say they can predict a stock price for next Tuesday at 3pm.

Again I did not say the article was 100% true. From experience with buying airfares I do tend to buy at certain times of the year as I track my airfare a year in advance so I know the prices I am dealing with so I can jump when I see it go down. I also never said everyone should follow that article but I did find it interesting. People might find this interesting. I happen to have a discount code for an airline. Depending on where I am going depends on the discount. Sometimes the price is cheaper without the discount code which makes no sense to me but it is what it is. So much for thinking discounts actually give discounts. Not to mention another airline might have a cheaper route I can live with.

Sassy, you don't need to take comments personally. I did not say anything about YOU. I commented on the article and the question of predicting airfares.

I specifically referred to 'anyone' and 'they', not to YOU.

Thanks for the clarification dulciusexasperis as you did write "Bottom line sassy, NO ONE can tell you when the best time to buy will be". I guess the you in that sentence wasn't referring to me, sassy.

I hope the OP was able to get their airfare at a price they were happy with. Price jumping within hours has happened to me but I've stuck it out and gotten a price I was happy with.

not yet...still watching...

Don't confuse 'dynamic' pricing with 'schizophrenic' pricing! I've been watching July flights from LAS to ZRH for months now (practically daily) and they have only trended down about $75. I have not seen any 'dynamic' fluctuations at all. Probably due to the destination and time of year, but true non-the-less.