Purchasing tickets - How far in advance
 

I have two trips planned this summer - one to Paris and one to Indianapolis (both from Washington DC).

I am a person to likes to plan early and resolve uncertainty as soon as possible. I am seeing decent prices for both flights right now. I am tempted to buy.

BUT... both potential purchases involve an airline that is not in good shape (Paris -> Delta and Indy -> Northwest).

Is it prudent to wait until the travel dates get closer. How far out do most of you purchase?

I visited Continental's web site today and noticed that they have posted that they will honor tickets (subject to certain fees) issued by Independence Air, which has just folded. I know of no relationship between Continental and Independence Air, so I attribute this to the tradition in the industry of surviving airlines honoring, to some degree, tickets sold by airlines that have folded. So I think the difficulties of Delta and NW are not something that should concern us greatly.

As to when to buy, for international flights, I never buy after two months before the trip date, because my experience is that prices start going up then (although I have seen a few go down), and I don't want to risk not being able to get a ticket. I also rarely buy prior to four months prior to the trip date, because me experience is that normally prices go down a bit at that point. However, I monitor the prices from the time I start planning the trip, and I have a figure in mind of what is a really good deal, and if that figure shows up (as, for instance, on a sale), I go ahead and buy.

For domestic flights, I generally use the same rules, although I will sometimes defer buying until as late as a month before the flight date.

My "rules" are based on trying to buy the least expensive tourist fares. I know some of the deepest discounted tickets have conditions attached, such as they must be bought at least 30 days before the flight, and a Saturday night stayover is required, but those conditions are not well publicized, so it is a lot of work finding them, and probably not worth it to save $10 on a ticket.

If you want to resolve uncertainty, and are comfortable with the prices you have found, who is to say you shouldn't buy now? The only disadvantage I see is that the airlines are constantly altering their schedules, so if you buy now, there is some chance that they will change a flight or two, and you may arrive a little later, or earlier.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

But there is one factor in my mental calculations that you don't discuss.

Airlines that liquidate after I purchase the tickets. While unlikely - it isn't impossible when you are talking about Northwest or Delta.

Or - am I exagerating the possiblity of this happeneing?

Yes, you are exaggerating. Only possibility is pilot or FA union starting a strike. DL's pilots have been threatening for months, but agree to concessions, at least for now. They know if they strike, that means the end of the airline - and therefore their job.

NW's mechanics had been striking for months, and what happened? These people have no jobs and the airline's operating normally.

I agree with the above with one exception. Going south of the equator during the Christmas - New Year holiday. Better to buy this ticket 11 months (+) or wait to the very last minute.

Unless you are trying to book a special seat on a plane, three months before the flight is usually the right time.