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NYC-KIX (Kansai, Japan): when to buy?

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May 23rd, 2012, 01:25 PM
  #1
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NYC-KIX (Kansai, Japan): when to buy?

We need a round trip economy ticket for an adult child to visit us in Japan, leaving NYC one month from today (June 23) and then returning 2 weeks later. Prices spiked up considerably ($500 for a minimum price of $1,855) just in the past week when our plans were firming up.

Is there any chance, in your opinion, that the price of such a seat will dip down in the next week or so or do I likely need to grab it and be sorry we couldn't move on it earlier? Thanks for your best guess.
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May 23rd, 2012, 04:42 PM
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marya_, when the price jumps like that it almost always means that all of the lower-cost seats were purchased(though sometimes it can mean that you've fallem outside a minimum-day purchase requirement, usually 45, 30, or 14 days). Because airline seat inventory is something of a black art, it's possible that an airline will move some seats from higher-cost to lower-cost. Still, in my experience, it is much more likely that the price will increase rather than decrease as you get closer to departure date.

Be sure to check prices to ITM (Osaka's other airport). With only 1 or 2 exceptions, flying to Osaka/Kyoto from the States means flying to Tokyo and then connecting via air or rail. Also, you might check on prices from Dulles and from Boston, as both those now have non-stops to Tokyo.
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May 24th, 2012, 06:10 AM
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Thanks, Don. Your advice confirmed my instincts. You have more experience with flying to Japan than I do so that was helpful.

We bought the ticket late last night. There were no better deals into ITM alas. The flight we selected involves one change in Seattle but the timing of departures and arrivals was ideal and the overall travel time reasonable.

There was a nonstop from NY to KIX on a China Airlines 747 which tempted us briefly, but it was $200 more, crossing the 2K figure so we passed it up. I wonder if that was a good decision or a poor one. If anyone has taken that flight -- or flown with China Airlines recently -- I would be interest to hear your thoughts.
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May 24th, 2012, 11:08 PM
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marya_ it was a good decision given that the schedule is ideal, you saved money, and travel time is reasonable. The only thing I would wonder about at this point is the cost to upgrade the outbound leg of the trip.
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