julies

I also posted this over on the Europe board, but thought I'd put it out here also to see if there are any in-the-know people here.

So many of us have been appalled at the prices we're seeing quoted for transatlantic summer airfares this year. (For example, in my MSP market typically the lowest published summer fare to Paris or Frankfurt is about $450-500; this year it is closer to $900.) I know fuel is terribly expensive, so that is a factor. But is a shortage of flights also a factor so airlines can charge whatever they want and know people will just have to pay the prices? Has transatlantic travel taken an upswing and the airlines haven't added capacity? Or, are these just the prices they are hoping to get people to pay?

Is there anyone out there who really knows the answer to this rather than just speculating as most of us are? Or, has anyone read anything from a credible source that can shed some light on this?

I am still playing the waiting game looking for mid to late June travel and hoping that things might shake out a little more favorably for me as far as airfares go.

Seamus

jules, I cannot claim any inside knowledge or expertise but can tell you that virtually all the travel publications - from newspapers to magazines - are saying that because the number of seats is lower (owing to trimmed schedules since 9/11, reputedly) and the demand for them is increasing (exchange rate a bit better, people just getting tired of not going to Europe) prices are likely to be higher. Add in the fuel cost issue and it sure doesn't look good for the kinds of fares we got used to the last couple years. I'm watching fares, too. In the past it is around this time that carriers start to announce summer sale fares, but I have not seen any downward movement - in fact, they have increased.
Have you noticed that NWA's ubiquitous discount certificates no longer cover travel across the pond as they used to do?

rkkwan

$450-500 from MSP, during June travel? I don't think that has happened at least for two years.

And you'll be lucky to get something around $900 now. Most fares are like $1,000-$1,100 including tax right now.

I don't think waiting is going to help either.

You've gotten very reasonable responses in the Europe board; I have little to add to that.

clevelandbrown

I think most of us have gotten spoiled by the low fares we have read about or experienced, and we should realize that the days of consistently cheap fares have passed. The airlines were badly burned when flying dropped off after the 9-11 murders, and they responded by sharply reducing capacity, so now flights are very often crowded.

On the other hand, some carriers are now adding overseas capacity, as apparently it is more profitable than domestic flights, and with increased capacity, there should be some competitive pressure to hold the line on prices, and perhaps even do an occasional sale.

Viewed over the long term, airfare is still very reasonable compared to some of the other costs of touring.

fetz

I agree with the last posting. We all have been spoiled by the fares on the atlantic in the last couple of years. All airlines have massivly increased their fuel surcharges and this year is gonna be big for travel to Europe. If you got a fare in peak from MSP to Europe for 900 including taxes, go for it, it ain't gonna be cheaper the longer you wait (I used to work fo over 15 years with a big European Airline in Sales, believe me it will be going up)

dutyfree

I fly everyweek to Europe for work on an airline and the flights are already full to capacity and its only going to get worst. So if you find a decent fare then buy it-projections in the Chicago Tribune travel section a few weeks ago said that its going to be a full summer to Europe with Rome and Italy being the number one destination for Americans!

tmh

As a previous poster says, jump on the $450!!