My thoughts on safaris in Botswana - part 1

Old Aug 4th, 2009, 06:17 AM
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cw wrote:

>>That's under $500 U.S. pp.

That's under 1000$ for a room per night. Wow! So cheap!

I don't know about you, but where I am from, people book ENTIRE HOLIDAYS for that price. I have a friend who is at this moment spending 12 days in a 5 star hotel in Cuba, all inclusive, for less that 1000€. My parents have a very luxurious Villa in southern France, which sells at 1250€ per week in top season. Six people can stay there, so that's 210€ pp.

OK, you can't really compare, I know. I mean it is normal you pay for the exclusivity of the location. And there's also the vehicle and the guide that cost money, etc.

But the point I'm trying to make now is twofold:

- there still has to be some kind of connection between the price and what you get for it. Value for money. Return of investment. Whatever you name it. Even the richest person on the planet will insist on that.

- private lodges in Bots are all aiming for rich people to fill their beds year after year, but that customer base is far from endless. According to Belgian stats, I'm supposed to be in the top 15% of earners in my country. Well, I cannot afford a "WS holiday in Botswana" any more. So I'm starting to think who can. And those that can, they won't ALL go to Botswana. They've got alternatives. Private islands, exclusive beach resorts, cruises, whatnot. A large part will not even be interested in seeing wild animals day after day.

I think the safari operators have missed their mark. They passed their goal. They are taking this luxury-high-priced-experience way too far. They may have rode on a high wave for a while, but that wave is (almost) gone.

Someone here mentioned that "Botswana should not go for high volume tourism". I agree. Actually, none of us here would want that. All that we want is that it just gets affordable again for the more-than-average wealthy people (like most of us are on this board, let's be honest about that), and not just for the filthy rich.

B.regs,

J.
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 06:58 AM
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One more point to Russell's Dubai reference..... in a recent article I read somewhere (google it) there was mention that there was sewage seeping into some exclusive beach that was so much sought after during the past real estate boom.
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 07:08 AM
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pixelpower

I think most of us have got your point.

I think also that "the wave is almost gone" isn't realistic. There ARE people who have money like dust and Botswana still has got the "exclusivity" tag.

Frankly - wildlife wise there are comparable countries.
Luxury and service wise as well.
But the infrastructure (taxi flights to each and every corner of the country) is advance to other destinations - except Kenyya where that's also a pleasure to fly in.

It's still the reputation of being the "most exclusive" safari destination.

Since Oprah W. did a safari in Botswana which is almost 15 years ago Botswana has seen a kind of hype.

Have been there - have done that - you know that golf club gossip where people compare what they have afforded "last time". Others are dedicated to go there as well to become respected, accepted whatsoever.

There are lots of people out there who eat rather a jam bread for dinner than admit that they really cannot afford a certain trip.
Social pressure to keep up with their peer.

And I fear people will do that for some time to come.....

SV
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 07:13 AM
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SV,

If your theory held, why for August and September is it Wilderness' 6 Paw camps that have the most availibility?

North Island has 3+ rooms out of 11 available for every day in September.

(Based on ATR's online charts)
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 07:31 AM
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lbj2
Not a bad occupation anyway for that price range!
These rates are calculated in a way that they keep the balance sheet positive even if they are ALMOST empty.

You cannot judge on a month or two. I could bet over one year period these places have an occupancy of 60 % which is rather good!

The mid range might fall below 50 or even 40%.

SV
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 07:46 AM
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I appreciate how the pricing model works.

Though these hotels/lodges have shareholders and investors wanting to mazimize their returns. If the down turn continues to be protracted, then you can significantly increase your profits by dropping prices and stimulating more demand.

I am sure a number of people would be enticed by a 33% off discount promotion.

As talking of occupancies, remember, alot these bookings were made before the collapse of Lehaman brothers, 2010 will be the important year.

August and the start of September are two bellweather months. They are the busiest period in Southern Africa, coinsiding with the tradtional holiday season in Europe and the US.
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 09:07 AM
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lbj2
YEPP - 2010 will becoming interesting.

I guess 2010 - besides the month from May to July which profit from the FIFA Worldcup at least in Southern Africa - will be much more dedicated to short term bookings.
2009 many have learnt a lesson - the camps which acted so in 2009 will realise that next year! - which is: "we booked far in advance and paid 100% and the short termers could make use of al these specials".

That as well was not a marketing genius who brought that "specials" up which were restricted to xcertain payment and booking rules.

Sanctuary did it as well as andBeyond.

First they had specials ending 28 Feb. So people who booked in Jan for April e.g. (despite relatively short term) had to pay the higher rate. Then the company extended the special into May followed by extension into July followed by ext. toward Dec.
And make it worse their rule was: Only for new bookings

I could bet next year will be the most interesting we have seen in recent safari history.

Cheers!

SV
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 02:50 PM
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A very interesting thread everyone. My own feeling is that the safari industry has overbuilt itself in the last few years, and now only the strong shall survive.

While Wilderness has a good grip on Botswana, it doesn't have a monopoly, per se. There are other options as discussed here already that are slightly cheaper (Kwando, Mapula, etc.) to much cheaper. There are underutilized areas in the Delta that are community-owned that could offer other more cheaper alternatives. Something has to give, and it will. I suspect Wilderness will adapt very well though.
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 04:11 PM
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I don't really envision the football world cup having a great impact on safari destinations outside SA itself - so, i don't think Bots or Zambia is going to get too busy from the world cup. Most of the football fanatics are going to go mainly to the football venues and then perhaps Kruger (varying options according to budgets), Vic Falls (maybe), Cape Town and Garden route (one or both).
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 04:16 PM
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Truth be told - if you take the private concession per se' you must take into consideration that WS and Kwando have the better concessions. Perhaps Chiefs camp .... but, from all that i've heard from other recent visitors it's not the ideal destination as the accent is so far removed from gameviewing -and the accent on the camp itself!

And Beyond ...... please!

Mapula - who knows? Hit or miss!

D&D, Orient Express .... again ...... PLEASE!!!
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Old Aug 4th, 2009, 04:19 PM
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Hit post too soon.

perhaps, one of the reasons why WS have raised the prices so much - with the knowledge that the competition will follow?

yet, from teh WS portfolio there is only the standard bunch of camps that get all the recognition - Chitabe, Vumbura, Mombo, Savuti, DT, DP.

Kwando - they have camps in two good concessions.
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Old Aug 5th, 2009, 01:07 PM
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If folks want to ignore the WS camps in NG 25, that's okay by me. I think NG 25 is the most beautiful area of the delta.
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Old Aug 5th, 2009, 02:34 PM
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"I don't really envision the football world cup having a great impact on safari destinations outside SA itself - so, i don't think Bots or Zambia is going to get too busy from the world cup."
Campsites in Moremi are booked out for June 2010 from one report I read. Maybe we should say the upmarket will have issues instead.
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Old Aug 5th, 2009, 03:22 PM
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The upmarket already has slowed down due to the recession, from the synopsis of this thread...... given the book a year in advance methodology, I'm not certain when they are going to recover......

Somehow, I don't envision the football faithful doing a self-drive in the Moremi. Perhpas, the campsites are booked up by travellers who wish to do so?
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Old Aug 5th, 2009, 11:38 PM
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For Moremi, reservations for campsites in June and July 2010 is fully booked. They haven't opened the august 2010 bookings yet, that will start on Sept 1st.....
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Old Aug 6th, 2009, 12:02 AM
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Yeah but thats campsites, not rooms in lodges.

Besides; campsites are ALSO block-booked. Mobile safari operators do this and then of course hope to sell them.
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Old Aug 6th, 2009, 12:57 AM
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They use HATAB and BOGA campsites mostly.
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Old Aug 6th, 2009, 01:25 AM
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Ah you're referring to the public ones then?
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Old Aug 6th, 2009, 03:43 AM
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We'll see how busy everyone is now ... will report on it on my return.

Greetz,

Johan
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Old Aug 6th, 2009, 04:43 AM
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Have a good trip, Johan!

J.
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