Eben's Migration Geometry


Dec 6th, 2005, 01:11 PM
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 1,790
Eben's Migration Geometry

Because these comments are so useful and the question is asked repeatedly, I cut and pasted this advice from Eben in recent threads addressing the question about where to stay at certain times of the year to maximize the chance of being near the migration.

I am posting the June-July response first because it contains his explanation about his analysis in general.


"One thing I've certainly learned over the last few years is that the migration patterns are changing!

During June, July and into August the herds are spread out from Moru Kopjes through Seronera, the Western Corridor, the Grumeti reserve area, the northern Serengeti and into the Mara.

My views and opinions are also in evolution! Instead of trying to predict where the herds will be, I nowadays like to select lodges & camps that put me in the best position to see the migration.

Unfortunately, as the lodges/camps tend to sell out many months ahead, I've also learned to accept that my first-choices may not be available and to accept a 2nd or even 3rd choice. To increase my chances of getting a bed to sleep in, I am working really hard to figure out where ALL the seasonal and short-term tented camps are located. This is very difficult but very rewarding at the same time - in late December our go-safari site will have all this information freely available!

In June, any place in the triangle between the Sopa, Kirawira and Mbuzi Mawe should be optimum (including the Grumeti reserves). As always, I suggest splitting the stay between at least 2 areas at opposite sides of this large triangle.

Kirawira/Mbalageti/Grumeti and Mbuze Mawe, Kirawira/Mbalageti/Grumeti and Sopa. Sopa and Grumeti Reserves.

Anywhere in between will also work - unfortunately availability (or the lack thereof) will dictate the choices and not the other way around!

As always, I prefer the smaller tented seasonal/mobile camps by a mile over any of the places I mentioned BUT ONLY IF THEY ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE TRIANGLE OR VICINITY"

Late Sept/October

Masai Mara

In response to a question about the Serengeti at that time:

"In Sept/Oct a combination of Seronera and the far north are the best places to be in the Serengeti.

In the far north, Sayari is best then followed by other seasonal camps near Kogatende. Bologonja camps are a bit far to the east as is Klein's camp and their new mobile camp - but these will also work if Sayari is full (the night drives are actually very good on the CCAfrica concession).

In these months the wildebeest and zebra go back and forth across the Mara near Sayari to/from the Masai Mara.

Seronera has resident wildlife and cats and the combination of this area and the north offer a good contrast."


" . . . also agree that between mid-Dec and mid-March one needs at least 3 stops somewhere within the square area anchored by Ndutu, Kusini, Seronera and Piaya to really increase the chances of being in the midst of the migration"
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