Felly

My husband and I are planning a week of diving in Cozumel next week (June 16-20). We've both been to Mexico before, but it was years ago. And we've never been to Cozumel.

The weather forecast looks rather bleak. We're wondering, is this something that we should gamble on? Or move our trip to new dates? We know that, in the tropics, a forecast for rain might just mean an hour of downtime in an otherwise lovely day.

On the other hand, thunderstorms and metal scuba tanks and little diving boats don't sound like a plausible combination.

The forecast for every single day is some variation of: Thunderstorms likely. High 82F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90%.

What do you think? Should we gamble?

jette

I think in June you will have a 90% chance of rain in any given year. Normally it may rain hard, and I do mean downpour for @ 10 minutes and clear up after that. It is somewhat of a gamble but I don't think you will find anytime that you are not subject to some rain in the tropics.

For what it's worth in all my years of going to Playa and in all different times of the year, the only time I was really rained out was in late October.

suze

I'd take the gamble... since the trip's already planned. Summer is rainy season in Mexico so that part's no surprise really.

Rohelio

I have to agree with jette, when it rains it really comes down and it is quite difficult to predict especially in Playa as it is next to the ocean. The ever present winds and currents strongly affect the outcome and duration. It is also worth mentioning that it can rain for weeks at a time, honestly, it becomes impossible to walk on the street with all the water. It can then stop raining for a day or so and the the heat and especially the humidity hit hard. It can be quite an experience. IMO, I would most certainly put it off as you wont always be underwater, surely, you will want to walk around and have dinner and everything else.
Keep your eye on the long term forecast and keep your bags packed... the excitement will be fun, kind of like a last minute but you will be prepared !!!

TC

We've been going to Cozumel for 22 years. The weather reports ALWAYS says rain. Seldom is the weather bad enough to close the port, thereby shutting down diving. Two good sources of information are to email the local dive shop that you will use for an "on the ground" assessment or have a look at this web site used by the local kite boarders and wind surfers to predict wind and surf.

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=76381

If you don't have a dive shop yet or can't get hold of anyone, try emailing Frank Ferry. He is the owner of Pepe SCUBA. He is a good guy and will give you what info he has.

http://pepe-scuba-dive-shop-cozumel.com/

I say GO. Your fears are unwarranted. Most dive boats have cover (Pepe's do), you never touch the tanks until you're at the site ready to enter the water and lightening storms are very rare even if its pouring rain in CZM.

Remember....it's always wet under the sea!

Christina

I don't think diving at Cozumel is that great, I was there a year or so ago. I think it has degraded over the years. However, all I know is I went snorkeling in Puerto Rico last November and it was raining that day and it greatly affected the conditions, and they had to cut it short. The problem was the rain stirred up the water so you couldn't see anything, anyway. I don't know if that makes any difference for scuba diving, but I would think the clarity of the water would, but you are not as close to shore probably. And maybe there isn't as much sand to stir up there vs. Culebra island in PR.

I don't think June is the time I would plan to go diving there, it gets very hot by then for one thing, but it's not as bad as it could be later on, for sure (like Sept-Oct).

TC

Christina, You don't sound like you dive...so on what are you basing your opinion that Cozumel diving isn't great or has degraded? As a diver who has spent 22 winters on Cozumel, I could not agree with either statement.

As for your snorkeling adventure....well, yes, rain really affects snorkeling because you do that in very shallow water and depend on the light from the sun for lumination. Diving is a whole different ballgame. At 30-60 ft. down, you won't even notice that its raining. You bring your own light via flashlights or strobes. There won't be any sand on the bottom of a dive location in Cozumel that is stirred up and Palancar (the world's second larget reef) isn't affected by storms or even hurricanes.

Still interested in why you think Cozumel has degraded?

suze

I have never heard anyone else say that about diving in Cozumel. I also would be interested in where that statement comes from.

Felly

I have been meaning to come back and update this thread with what happened, especially since so many people left such helpful responses.

We ended up going when we were scheduled to, and the weather was absolutely perfect, even though the forecast continued to say every day that it would downpour. We were talking to people who left the day we arrived and they said they'd had the same issue--where the forecast for that week had looked abysmal but every day was blue sky.

Cozumel was wonderful. The diving was fantastic, and now we're spoiled forevermore. We saw a turtle up close every single day. The island wasn't overcrowded and we had a gloriously relaxing time.

Thanks again to everyone who allayed our fears.

suze

Thanks for reporting back, it's always nice when people do that!! I'm so glad the weather was good for your trip.

Pretty much daily this time of year (rainy season in Mexico) between posting here on Fodor's and over at Trip Advisor we are reassuring people about the same thing (bad weather forecasts). Unless there is a major storm rolls thru, pretty much it is never as bad as the forecasts make it out to be.

Rohelio

Well said Felly, this holds thrue especially on the Carabean side of the country, where you never know what to expect until it happens. The TV forecasts call for rain all day, yet the weather outside is nothing short of fantastic... go figure ! I to, have seen the turtles and rays and other beautiful fish swim several feet away, it can be a very touching and memorable adventure...